Wargaming:� for Defense Planners

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

22 July 13

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Purpose

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To provide planners information on the scope of wargame applications as well as information on their strengths and limitations

Overview

• Wargame: Definitions, Process, Scope
• Strategic Wargaming
• USAF/AFMC Wargaming (overview)
• Applying Wargaming Within AFMC (overview)
• Confidence Levels in Wargames (overview)

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Your Instructor – Matt Caffrey

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• Lead Wargaming, AFRL
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/Speaker
• Co-author, Gulf War Fact Book
• Three chapters, many articles, hundreds of talks

Wargaming At The Executive Level

Why Understand Wargaming

As a planner in the US Defense Community it is important you understand this ubiquitous tool

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War and contingency operations tells you if your predecessors made the right decisions

Wargaming can help you make decisions that will enable your successors to succeed

Options For Insights

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Actual Operations

Title 10 Wargame

MAJCOM Wargame

After Action Reports / Histories

High End Studies and Analysis

Confidence

Cost

�Confidence vs. Lead Time & Expense

What Is a Wargame?

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Definitions

Reality

Simulation

Model

Sim Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multisided

Armed Conflict

Definitions

Wargame: an armed conflict simulation game.

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Wargame: A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation.

DOD Dictionary of Military Terms

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10

Venn Diagrams

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Participants

Teams

The Wargame Process

Initial State

The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

Types of Wargames/Adjudication

Each has advantages and disadvantages.

The Wargame Process

Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

End State

The Wargame Process

End State

Initial State

End State Move 1 Initial State Move 2

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End State Move 2 Initial State Move 3

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Spectrum of DoD Wargaming

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Utility of Wargaming�

Remember ACE

• Anticipate
• Communicate
• Educate

Utility of Wargaming

ACE

• Anticipate: Wargames provide insights into the impact of emerging threats & opportunities.
• Communicate: Wargames clarify utility of all elements of ACS (especially S&T) to operators and needs of operators to AFMC.
• Educate: Wargames help participants to better understand military operations, hence anticipate when Command may have greatest impact, i.e., wargames develop strategists.

Overview

• Wargame: Definitions, Process, Scope
• Strategic Wargaming
• USAF/AFMC Wargaming (overview)
• Applying Wargaming Within AFMC (overview)
• Confidence Levels in Wargames (overview)

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"You go to war with the Army you have...

not the Army you might want or wish to have…

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Former Secretary Of Defense Rumsfeld

Strategic Wargaming

Federal Budget

Process

OSD

Svs

JCS

Comb.Cdr

I

INITIATION

II

CONCEPT

DEVELOPMENT

III

PLAN

DEVELOPMENT

IV

PLAN

REVIEW

V

SUPPORT

PLANS

JOPES

CPG

JSCP

PDMs

BESs

PBDs

PLANNING

BUDGETING

PPBS

President’s

Budget

FYDP

DPG

CPA

CPR

JPD

JSR

Annual

Report

CPR

CPA

JV 20xx

NMS

JSCP

JPD

JSPS

JQRR

IPLs

POMs

PROGRAMMING

DP

CAP

CRS

JROC

JWCA

ACRONYM�SOUP

QDR

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Pol/Mil

Even Milton Caniff was criticized for a

Steve Canyon episode that described

the Pentagon's Pol/Mil wargaming.

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Midterm - JSCP*

Theater Wargame

JSCP = Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

COA Wargames

The Joint Operations Planning �& Execution System

No Plan

Contingency Planning

Strategic Guidance

Concept

Development

OPORD

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Execution

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Planning

Campaign Plan

OPORDs

OPLAN

CONPLANs

Commander’s

Strategic

Concept

Plan

Development

Plan Assessment

Review Guidance

Adapt

Concept

Update Plan

Situation Awareness / Plan Assessment

Crisis Action Planning

Initiate

Planning

Transition to Crisis Planners

IPL

S&TIPL

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Adaptive Planning

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Midterm - JSCP

Theater Wargaming

Assessment

Integrated Priority List (IPL)

S&T IPL

Strategic Wargaming and �the Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Title 10

Defense Planning

Guidance

Title 10 Wargames�Service Unique

US Air Force

• Unified Engagement – HAF/A5X
• Objective: Explore alternate doctrine, strategy, and CONOPs with Strong Joint & Coalition warfare emphasis
• Focus: 10 to 12 years into the future

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• Future Capabilities Game – HAF/A8X
• Objective: Explore alternative futures and force structure to support strategic planning inputs
• Focus: 20 to 25 years in the future

Sister Service

• Navy – Global
• Army – Unified Quest
• USMC – Expeditionary Warrior

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Title 10 Wargames�Common Elements

• Joint
• Defense Planning Scenarios
• Each service agrees to use only concepts from the owning service’s Toolbox
• Most Combined (typically 4 eyes)

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Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Title 10

Budget,

Assessment

The Defense Planning Systems �Key Wargames

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Pol/Mil

Title 10

Theater Wargaming

The Defense Planning Systems �Key Wargames

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Hormuz 81

Global 88

Gallant Knight 87

The Defense Planning Systems �Key Wargames

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

XX11

ZZ13

YY 12

Overview

• Wargame: Definitions, Process, Scope
• Strategic Wargaming
• USAF/AFMC Wargaming (overview)
• Applying Wargaming Within AFMC (overview)
• Confidence Levels in Wargames (overview)

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HQ Air Force Wargaming

AF Corporate

Structure

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POM

COCOM with assigned�MAJCOM/#AF�# Plan Wargames

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Service & GCCs

Service

Even Year

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AF/A5X

Odd Year

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AF/A8X

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Futures Game

Unified Engagement

Every 2 Years

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COCOMs

HQ Air Force Wargaming

AF Corporate

Structure

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POM

COCOM with assigned�MAJCOM/#AF�# Plan Wargames

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Service & GCCs

Service

Even Year

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AF/A5X

Odd Year

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AF/A8X

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Futures Game

Unified Engagement

Sister Service

AF MAJCOMS

Every 2 Years

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COCOMs

HQ AFMC Wargaming

• Elements of Command supported wargames since 1990s
• AFMC/CC appointed Lead Integrator for Agile Combat Support (ACS)
• Found ACS virtually ignored in Wargames
• Wargame element since Summer 2010
• Command wide coordination of wargame activities
• Initial plan – do ACS right in our own wargame
• Command Decision – integrate with Title 10s

AFMC Wargaming

Execute /Participate in Wargames �Based on Strategy

Reporting

Strategy/Plan for Wargame Participation

Prepare Participants

Prepare Concepts +

Leaders Planners

Overview Of Prepare Concept Processes

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AF/A8XC SCFs, Cost est.

AF wide Initial SCs

AFRL tech review

LCMC costs est.

AF/A8XC Initial SCCs

AFRL TRL6 estimate

LCMC IOC estimate

AFMC Wargame

AF/A8XC final SCFs

5% of concepts considered for Program of Record

Post FG Capstone analysis confirms some concepts fill gap or provides edge

Rigor of tech & cost analysis increases

as number of concepts decreases

AF wide SCIs

Use of Wargames in Planning

• Use depends on type & level of planning
• Type
• National
• Theater
• Force
• Level
• Senior Level
• Subordinate

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The Defense Planning Systems �Key Wargames

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Pol/Mil

Title 10

Theater Wargaming

Theater Type Planning

• Senior Level
• Crisis Action Planning
• Contingency/Budget
• Subordinates
• Concurrent Crisis Action Planning
• Support to Contingency/Budget

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Why Concurrent Planning/Wargaming?

Greater detail needed at lower levels

Often uncover issues, prompt adjustment of parent plan

The Joint Decision Making Process�

FM 101-5, pg 5-2

Planning at Theater Level & Below

EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT

COA DEVELOPMENT

COA ANALYSIS

RECEIPT OF MISSION

MISSION ANALYSIS

ORDERS PRODUCTION

REHEARSAL

COA APPROVAL

COA COMPARISON

FM 101-5 pg 5-2

Planning at Theater Level & Below

The Joint Decision Making Process

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Force Type Planning

• Senior Level
• Conduct Service’s Title 10 Wargame(s)
• Support/draw insights from Sister Service Title 10s
• Major Command
• Conduct Command Level Wargame (i.e. GLOMO)
• Support Service’s Title 10 Wargame(s)

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Why MAJCOM Wargaming?

Mission area details needed at MAJCOM level

Refines depiction of mission areas, improves Title 10s

Overview

• Wargame: Definitions, Process, Scope
• Strategic Wargaming
• USAF/AFMC Wargaming (overview)
• Applying Wargaming Within AFMC (overview)
• Confidence Levels in Wargames (overview)

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Force Planning

• Agile Combat Support (ACS)
• Science & Technology (S&T)

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Challenges in AFMC Mission Area

Why Apply Wargaming to ACS Planning

Why Apply to ACS Planning

Wargaming can clarify ACS impact to AF Leaders

• AF leadership dominated by fighter pilots
• Talk of part numbers cause eyes to glaze over, talk of sortie numbers gets their attention
• Better depiction of ACS in wargames will:
• Demonstrate impact of ACS on sortie levels
• Clarify likely impact of enemy action on ACS
• Identify otherwise unidentified future ACS needs

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Historical President

Can wargaming convince warfighters of the need for ACS?

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They have.

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Gallant Knight

1987

Why Apply Wargaming to S&T Planning

Applying Wargaming to S&T Planning

• How do commercial Labs decide how to invest?
• Relative return on investment (ROI)
• Income – Cost = Profit

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• How do you decide how to invest your limited assets?
• Relative military utility

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- = Utility

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Victory Cost

Wargames help leaders anticipate relative military utility

Why Apply to S&T Planning

Wargaming can narrow the transition �“Valley of Death”

• AFRL is more likely to work on what war fighters WILL want when our concept is ready
• War fighters will better appreciate the full benefit of AFRL concepts – generating concept pull
• Better concepts through anticipating, identify :
• Needs not yet anticipated by operators
• More Blue missions/applications
• Likely Red counters/threats
• Attributes war fighters will value most

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Why Apply to S&T Planning

Better anticipate future War fighter needs

More effective tech push

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Better understanding of concept capabilities

More motivated needs pull

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Why Apply to S&T Planning

• Suggests likely gravity of emerging gaps/threats
• Suggest likely utility of potential asymmetric advantages
• Allows potential employment options and Red counters to be explored in time to impact system design & accelerating optimal employment

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Overview

• Wargame: Definitions, Process, Scope
• Strategic Wargaming
• USAF/AFMC Wargaming (overview)
• Applying Wargaming Within AFMC (overview)
• Confidence Levels in Wargames (overview)

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Wargaming as a Decision Aid

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

George Edward Pelham Box

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• Some believe wargames “prove” things; from which aircraft to buy to how wars will turn out.
• Others say wargames cannot prove anything; hence they are useless as a decision aid.

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Have you ever acted on less than 100% certainty?

Assessing Confidence in Outcomes

Assessing Confidence in Outcomes

• Every wargame predicts the future; however:
• They are dead-on only several times a century
• More often, a wargame’s forecast differs from actual outcomes, yet is close enough to be useful
• Other times, they are so wrong they have misled
• Principal influences on confidence
• Difficulty of subject being wargamed
• Quality of planning and execution �(Cadre members learn MUCH more about this)

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Sometimes the insights from wargames change the future

Wargaming as a Decision Aid

Acquiring the Data

• Use the same process as HAF, get the information you need with the least effort
• Mine what you can – look for/create “good fits”
• Assess/Influence key wargames
• “Roll your own” only when you must
• AFMC Wargaming will make above easier
• One stop shopping to mine most relevant data
• Annual AFMC wide plan – which wargames to Assess/Influence
• AFMC Wargame designed to meet otherwise unmet needs

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Wargaming as a Comm Aid�

• Set the context so value will be clear
• Reasonable employment of Red tech abilities
• Hard aspects not ignores; ex. cyber, space, ISR, log
• Ensure ACS/S&T played correctly
• Getting into wargame prerequisite for correct play
• Depiction, employment, adjudication and reporting
• Ensure Blue concepts NOT played are known
• Don’t overlook indirect communication aid�“X wargame demonstrated need our Y concept can meet”

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Developing You and Your People

• Wargames help bridge the gap between operators and technologists & logisticians.
• Enable S&Es to think more like war fighters
• To become “virtual veterans”
• Wargames help develop strategic skills.
• Cause and effect
• “Down board thinking” i.e. anticipating adversary
• Leadership

Conclusion

Effective use of wargames can help us make more effective decisions today, secure funds, and better prepare tomorrow’s leaders.

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Wargames save lives.