Focusing on what matters

Jona Glade

​

2025

Theories of change, OKRs and KPIs

Agenda

Intro

Goals for this session

Content part 1: Theories of change

Content part 2: OKRs

Content part 3: KPIs

Wrap-up and actionable next steps

Goals for this session

We strive to achieve three goals in this session while being aware that there is no one-size-fits-all approach

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Gain shared understanding of ToC, KPIs and OKRs

1

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Learn from each others experiences

2

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Provide actionable next steps

3

Three goals include discussion of case studies and learnings from each other

Characteristics (see details later) of ToC, OKRs, and KPIs are very context-specific and vary a lot between organisations

These tools might not even make sense to prioritize depending on your specific context

Working on your ToC, OKRs, and KPIs will be a journey of constant updating and refinement with different priorities depending on what stage your organisation is in

This session will be rather superficial. Happy to follow-up with potential in-depth discussions

Anything missing?

Please post in the chat

What topic do you want to spend the most time on in 2023 (ToC, OKRs or KPIs)?

What are the 1-3 most relevant questions that come to mind when thinking about your priority topic?

Theories of change

"I am increasingly convinced that the difference between effective and ineffective people is their skill at developing a theory of change

Building a theory of change for your research –

aka: one tool for maximally kicking global problems in the butt

Aaron Swartz, Demand Progress

Michael Aird, Rethink Priorities

A non-profit’s ToC is analogous to a business model in the for-profit world. Just as you wouldn’t found a company without a clear business model […], one shouldn’t found or fund a charity without a strong theory of change.

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In fact, ToC is more important for charities than business models are for businesses, because businesses have better feedback loops. If a for-profit is based on a bad idea, or has bad execution, it will see poor revenue and profits and it will soon go out of business. If a charity is ineffective on the other hand, it may limp along for years without having any impact, squandering limited funding and talent in the process.

Aiden Alexander, Charity Entrepreneurship

Simplified ToC of AMF to consider as example - in reality more sources of value with more complex interactions

Number and nature of steps differ between organisations

Input

Output

Impact

Activities

Outcome

$4 per mosquito net

N of nets distributed

N of lives saved

Distribution of mosquito nets

% Malaria infections reduced

Key assumptions, e.g., mosquito nets actually help against malaria

Key uncertainties, e.g., will people use mosquito nets in the right way

Quite often it makes sense to first create a long-list of main impact levers and then create a detailed ToC only for main levers

There are a four approaches to designing a ToC, choose by considering the purpose and available resources

For every project/major activity

Quick & dirty

Visually & detailed

Long & nuanced

Mix possible

Share learnings about ToC →Audience applies learnings →Better ToC →More good done in the world

To create joint clarity and facilitate high-level strategic thinking

Create clear flow-chart (e.g., see example on previous slide)

To elaborate on complex thinking

Create ~30-paged google doc showing high level of reasoning transparency

Get benefits from different formats by combining them

Mix and combine flow-charts, reports or quick ToC sketches

1

3

3

4

A theory of change can be developed and updated following a six-step process

e.g., expand program by sending job offers to alumni

Identify

value sources

1

Prioritize sources

of value

2

Create �flow-chart

3

Think �end-to-end

4

Collect data

5

Re-iterate

(as needed)

6

Consider the different ways your organization creates value by doing forward chaining based on comparative advantage and backward chaining based on what the world needs the most

Prioritize your sources of value by doing BOTECs¹, collecting expert and field data as well as thinking through what would happen if your activity wouldn’t exist/the counterfactual

Visualize the results in a flow-chart, adding assumptions and uncertainties

Probe what part of the process of impact generation is currently neglected/has weak links

Normally there are lots of uncertainties. Make a plan to collect data to inform most important ones

Re-iterate steps 1-6 as needed (e.g. when new data emerges or as the organization develops)

e.g., motivation to apply for role in a field

e.g., impact of credential vs. having tested fit for work

e.g., map how specifically careers are influenced

e.g., run a shorter fellowship as experiment

Activities per step

Example (Fellowship)

¹ BOTEC = Back of the envelope calculation

e.g., continuously look for ways to create more impact

Number and nature of steps might differ between situations

Example | The Fish Welfare Initiative does experiments to confirm their ToC

You want to be strategic/proactive about testing key uncertainties and assumptions, e.g., via small experiments

FWI approach to ToC:

• Focus less on choosing and implementing whole programs that seem promising
• Focus more on investigating the links in their best-guess theory of change and testing those, ideally by executing them on a smaller level
• Scale only after the theory of change has been validated

Source: Link

ToC of an organisation developed in different stages

1

2

3

4

• 0 – 0.5 years

• 0.5 – 1.5 years

• 1.5 – 2 years

• 2+ years

Lifetime of an organisation

Think and talk a lot about ToC of your new idea until you hit diminishing returns, and you need to collect data

Do a lot of experimentation and/or research to confirm assumptions and reduce uncertainties

When convinced that your ToC is roughly robust one can start finetuning the activities and measure what you care about

Keep optimising activities and start exploring alternative activities to achieve same or different goal

Duration and content of steps may differ between organisations

ToC can be developed on org, team or individual level

Helps to always focus on value creation and think about different ways to create value/achieve the goal

Individual level

Team level

Organisational level

Common pitfalls to consider

The ToC is not used for prioritizing activities, quarterly planning or internal and external communication

The current list highlights main points and is not exhaustive

The counterfactual component of the ToC is not considered enough

Let's discuss

Do you have any questions for me or the others?

What worked well regarding ToC and what didn’t? When do you think was it useful/when wasn’t it useful?

What do you think is the biggest improvement lever for ToC for you/your org?

Homework | Consider these steps to put theory into action

Optional: Look at this collection of documents on ToC, if you want to learn more

Think through the main sources of value and build or improve your ToC based on recent learnings and example ToCs from this workshop or from here

Feel free to reach out in case of any questions during or after the program

Due to workshop context discussed material is high level, independent reading and thinking strongly encouraged

OKRs

What is the difference between OKRs and KPIs?

OKRs help you to track progress and achieve your (ToC-based) goals, e.g., save more lives

KPIs help you to constantly measure performance, e.g., donations / quarter

• KPI = Key Performance Indicators

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• Metrics that capture something you care about regularly - ToC/strategy helps understanding what you should care about regularly

​

• Retrospective/Past performance

​

• Measure on an ongoing basis

​

• Example could be numbers of bed nets distributed per year (AMF example)

• OKR = Objectives and Key Results

​

• Management tool to define objectives and break them down into measurable key results – objectives usually based on ToC helping to detail ToC further

​

• Prospective/Future-focused (focus on goal-setting)

​

• Reviewed quarterly or annually

​

• Example could be saving more lives (Objective) by distributing 40% more bed nets, … (Key Results)

OKRs

VS

This list may not be exhaustive as definitions of OKRs and KPIs vary

Deep dive next slides

KPIs

AMF | Made up examples to illustrate OKRs

Objective:

Save more lives

Objective:

Improve communication with donors to increase funding

Key result 1:

Increase # of nets in current countries of operation by 40% in 2023

Key result 2:

Distribute nets in one new country of operation in 2023

Key result 3:

Raise 20% more donations in 2023 to finance increased number of nets distributed

Illustrative OKRs do not represent actual OKRs of AMF

Key result 1:

Establish 3 funder calls throughout the quarter

Key result 2:

Develop an impact report by the end of the quarter

Key result 3:

Have one podcast episode to share insights

1. Link

Defining OKRs can be combined with a forecasting exercise

Please post in the chat

If you have used OKRs before (yes/no)

Advice you would give others who want to use OKRs

Consider a few ideas for setting up OKRs

Objectives

• Objectives should be qualitative, aspirational and something you, your team, or your organisation aim to achieve (over the next 3¹, 6, or 12 months)

• Key results should be quantitative, measurable, and they should indicate whether you have achieved your objective or not

Key results

• 3-5 objectives per organisation, per team, and per project on average

• 3-5 key results per objective on average

• Check your objectives by asking
• Are there too many or too few?
• Are they actionable?
• What impact will they have?
• Can they be clearer or more concise?
• Who is accountable for each objective?

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• Check your key results by asking
• Are there too many or too few?
• Are your key results task or outcome oriented?
• Are they ambitious enough?
• Are the targets realistic?
• Who is accountable for each key result?

1. Most common is 3 months

These objectives can be part of your ToC

Case study FWI | OKRs used to break down ToC

This is the source.

Summary of objectives

Breakdown of objectives into key results

Overall progress tracking

Progress tracking of key results

ToC broken down into different objectives

Accountable

Common pitfalls to consider

The current list highlights main points and is not exhaustive

Let's discuss

Do you have any questions for me or the others?

When do you think OKRs are useful?

What do you think is the biggest improvement lever for OKRs at your organisation?

Homework | Consider these steps to put theory into action

Optional: Learn more via What Matters and Mooncamp as deep dive reads (slightly different definition of OKRs)

Use FWI's or Mooncamp's OKR Excel Template as a starting point to define your own OKRs for the next three months. If you find it useful you can test them with your team and eventually role it out across orgs

Evaluate your OKRs after 1-3 months. Do not hesitate to reach out to your peers or me in case of any questions or challenges along the way

Due to workshop context discussed material is high level, independent reading strongly encouraged

KPIs

Recap | What is the difference between OKRs and KPIs?

OKRs help you to track progress and achieve your (ToC-based) goals, e.g., save more lives

KPIs help you to constantly measure performance, e.g., donations / quarter

• KPI = Key Performance Indicators

​

• Metrics that capture something you care about regularly - ToC/strategy helps understanding what you should care about regularly

​

• Retrospective/Past performance

​

• Measure on an ongoing basis

​

• Example could be numbers of bed nets distributed per year (AMF example)

• OKR = Objectives and Key Results

​

• Management tool to define objectives and break them down into measurable key results – objectives usually based on ToC helping to detail ToC further

​

• Prospective/Future-focused (focus on goal-setting)

​

• Reviewed quarterly or annually

​

• Example could be saving more lives (Objective) by distributing 40% more bed nets, … (Key Results)

OKRs

VS

This list may not be exhaustive as definitions of OKRs and KPIs vary

KPIs

Please post in the chat

Which KPIs you track at your organisation (if any at all)

Which ones you should be tracking (vague definition ok)

CART framework helps for high-level KPI definition – how to measure anything is a good read for finetuning the KPI

Source can be found here

Common pitfalls to consider

The current list highlights main points and is not exhaustive

Let's discuss

Do you have any questions for me or the others?

Is there anything you would like to share about KPIs (e.g., doubts or questions, support, new ideas)?

What do you think is the biggest improvement lever for KPIs at your org?

Homework | Consider these steps to put theory into action

Optional: Read the Goldilock Challenge, the LessWrong forum post How to Measure Anything, and the What Matters post to learn more

Use recent learnings as a starting point to define/review one KPI, which you think captures your main source of value best (this can be extremely hard and maybe not worth the effort)

Evaluate your KPI regularly and potentially adjust the KPIs if the organisational context or goals change. Do not hesitate to reach out in case of any questions or challenges along the way.

Some example KPIs for the non-profit sector can be found here

Due to workshop context discussed material is high level, independent reading strongly encouraged

Wrap-up and actionable next steps

Your ToC, KPI and OKR development will be a journey of constant re-iteration

This is the source.

At some point you probably want to do impact evaluation, which will probably go beyond the KPIs and OKRs you measure and include, e.g., a one-off survey to capture all sources of value

Plan

Track

Evaluate

Workshop's main objectives serve as reflecting point

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Gain shared understanding of ToC, KPIs and OKRs

1

​

Learn from each others experiences

2

​

Generate actionable ideas for improvements

3

Three objectives included discussion of case studies and learnings from each other

Any remaining questions or required information/material based on our three objectives for this workshop?

Homework | Various resources and proposals for concrete activities to choose from

KPIs

ToC

OKRs

motivational picture/quote

Let‘s kick global problems in the butt (and reduce the chance that we are kidding ourselves)

THANK YOU