Daily Market Journal

Date:

11.07.2024 Thursday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Chop and reject: Orange Path: We chop around the bands here and try to reclaim the Pivot but we fail. We start to trend lower and take some liquidity from the downside: mean reverting choppy market.”
• We saw the orange path play out except we havent gone down that deep I expected we will after rejecting.

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• “Gold held so far the breakout (blue line) which is a good sign. Until it’s above that level it could build for more upside here. “
• Nice pump on gold today, will cover it on the Macro slide.

CPI data

We had the CPI data release today

Bullish data on all measures of CPI, all below expectations = lower inflation = likelier for FED to cut

Unemployment Claims slightly lower than expected, showing a bit stronger job market.

Market had a pump on the release of the data but fully retracted it and went lower since. A clear news event failure so far. The good news was used as exit liquidity.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price tried to sell off after today’s open but it held up and reclaimed the H1 bands
• Price pumped on the CPI data release and it took out the recent highs, and took liquidity
• The pump got sold into heavily, and we got quickly back below the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot
• We also turned the H1 bands back to red and are chopping around it
• 57K is interim support, 2021 Feb Highs Pivot is resistance. Breaking one of the two could give us a bit clearer short term direction.
• Between these two levels it’s just chop.

Key Levels (Current BTC Price = 57544)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 53329.5 (05.07 friday’s lows)

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• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly Open) we are currently below = bears in control
• 55831.0 (Weekly Open) price is above and held it as support so far = bulls in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 51300 - 52050 (Bullish OB)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot) got above briefly but rejected and fell back below it
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot)
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot)
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From the January Bottom to BTC’s current ATH
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. The Q1 rally was a significant rally that brought us all the way from 39K to 74K in a matter of 51 days, and because of it’s up-only nature left a lot of unfilled inefficiencies behind.
1. Seeing the accumulation areas (marked with blue) inside it could be crucial in seeing where price finds support, or if it loses an area it could unwind quickly to the next.
2. ​
2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price is currently above the 50-52K Accumulation area, and below the selloffs Value Area marked in green.

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CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

9.77%

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Since today’s lows price is up 0.88% and OI is up by 2.69%
• The excess OI got added into the CPI release and hasn’t closed since
• Futures CVDs down only since the CPI release, spot CVD holding up the market
• Funding below neutral
• Spot premium present

Who could the excess OI be? Dumb longs might have longed the CPI and they dont want to cut the trade because they got underwater right away? Or did people short the pump and they are in profit and that’s why they are not closing? I think the dumb side is the longs here honestly. Dumb money probably wouldnt have taken the short side for a bullish CPI number.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Liquidity both sides here. Liquidity below is closer, the path of least resistance here could be down in the near term.

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• Total 3 down the same as BTC, ETH stronger today
• Since the monthly open Total 3 is holding up the best
• BTC D small red day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Below the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 29.22B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 12.76B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

43.6%

Todays changes:

• 290mil increase in total OI

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• 30mil decrease in CME OI
• 160mil increase in Binance OI

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Todays changes:

• 80mil increase in total OI

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• 60mil increase in Binance OI
• 60mil decrease in Bybit OI

BTC possible paths

1. Reclaim: Green path: We reclaim the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot which is the only bullish thing we could do here imo. If we are able to reclaim that, a further squeeze could be coming.

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• Chop zone: Orange path: We hold 57K but we hold the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot as resistance. We chop between the two and around the H1 bands.

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• Losing 57K: Red a path: Losing interim support 57K could lead us to move to range lows or at least towards them. The Weekly Open could be a level to watch for potential support.

Stocks, Macro

• Gold nice move up after holding the breakout level I was talking about yesterday. This move brings us nwo into the ATH resistance area. If bulls are stronger here we might see a valid breakout coming in the next days or weeks maybe.

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• Dollar continued selling off after the weak bounce into the H8 bands discussed yesterday. Currently it’s at HTF support 104. Nothing really bullish in it, might just chop around or go deeper into support.

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• S&P and NDQ red H8 candles after the weak grinds into the highs. This might be the start of a topping process. People might think they are a genius to short them now to catch the “pico top”. They will probably get blown out a couple times first. I dont think the top is in price wise, but area wise it could be in for a while.

Coins on the radar, Trade setups currently and for the future

• Bands red everywhere on the 1D, coins just rejecting their pushes into the bands. No setups or new ideas. Patience.

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• Market pretty quiet. Some volatility on the CPI release but it just got brutally sold into. Bearish until further notice.
• Really the only bullish path here would be reclaiming the 2021 Feb Highs Pivot. Below that it’s just a weak consolidation at the lows after a sharp move down losing support.

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• Did further research on the new Spot Strategy Ideas and I found an even slightly better one than just following the 2D bands on BTC.

Here is the continuation of the study:

• https://app.jointherealworld.com/chat/01GW4K82142Y9A465QDA3C7P44/01GY9V5F5XPA90TF6J563BWWZE/01J2HDWXB9EM980M5R5E0T6FJ0

Further notes about the market - if any

If you dont have LTF systems, the only think you can do is save your capital in these phases.

I definitely fell into this trap where I got just chopped up by having HTF directional thoughts in choppy phases. It will kill you.

I lost more money than I should have by just holding onto positions and not realising losses or getting out bags.

You can have all the reasons in the world to be long short or out of the market. But the only good reason (for me at least) is to have hard rules that override everything.

On the long run systems and rules will just save your ass by losing money, and they will also make you a bunch of money if you follow them without error.