Module #23

Economic Development, Consumption and Sustainability

Module Introduction:

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• Human populations undergo change as a variety of natural and societal conditions in those populations change over time.
• Some of these changes occur within specific patterns that can be described and explained.
• In this module we will look at demographic transitions, the effect of these transitions on the environment and the relationship between economic development and sustainability.

Module #23: Economic Development, Consumption and Sustainability

Essential Knowledge

3.8 Human Population Dynamics (Modules 22, 23, 31)

• Birth rates, infant mortality rates, and overall death rates, access to family planning, access to good nutrition, access to education, and postponement of marriage all affect whether a human population is growing or declining.
• Factors limiting global human population include the Earth’s carrying capacity and the basic factors that limit human population growth as set forth by Malthusian theory.
• Population growth can be affected by both density-independent factors, such as major storms, fires, heat waves, or droughts, and density-dependent factors, such as access to clean water and air, food availability, disease transmission, or territory size.
• The rule of 70 states that dividing the number 70 by the percentage population growth rate approximates the population’s doubling time.

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Essential Knowledge

3.9 Demographic Transition (Module 23)

• The demographic transition refers to the transition from high to lower birth and death rates in a country or region as development occurs and that country moves from a preindustrial to an industrialized economic system. This transition is typically demonstrated through a four-stage demographic transition model (DTM).
• Characteristics of developing countries include higher infant mortality rates and more children in the workforce than developed countries.

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Essential Knowledge

5.10 Impacts of Urbanization (Modules 23, 26, 30)

• Urbanization can lead to depletion of resources and saltwater intrusion in the hydrologic cycle.
• Urbanization, through the burning of fossil fuels and landfills, affects the carbon cycle by increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
• Impervious surfaces are human-made structures—such as roads, buildings, sidewalks, and parking lots—that do not allow water to reach the soil, leading to flooding.
• Urban sprawl is the change in population distribution from high population density areas to low density suburbs that spread into rural lands, leading to potential environmental problems.

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Developing Nations

• Developed country: A country with relatively high levels of industrialization and income.
• Developing country: A country with relatively low levels of industrialization and income.
• Affluence: The state of having plentiful wealth including the possession of money, goods, or property.

The Theory of Demographic Transition

• Theory of demographic transition: The theory that as a country moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth.
• The theory of demographic transition models the way that birth, death, and growth rates for a nation change with economic development and industrialization as they transition from preindustrial societies to developed nations.
• As nations develop, affluence increases which allows for improved human health and education, ultimately driving changes in the birth and death rates.

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Subsistence economy: a type of economy where people produce what they need for survival through hunting, gathering, and farming, rather than selling their goods in a market

The Influence of Affluence

Total Fertility Rate and Per Capita Income

• The figure to the right highlights the influence of affluence: Wealthier nations tend to have lower total fertility rates.
• Total fertility rate (TFR): An estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear throughout her childbearing years.

Demographic Transition

• Phase 1 is a preindustrial period of subsistence based living characterized by high birth rates and high death rates that offset each other resulting in generally stable population sizes and low growth rates.
• In phase 2, death rates drop rapidly, but birth rates do not change dramatically. Population growth is greatest at this point.
• In phase 3, birth rates decline significantly and population growth slows.
• In phase 4, the population stops growing and sometimes begins to decline as the death rate increases.

Subsistence: the action or fact of maintaining or supporting oneself at a minimum level .

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Today, there really are no nations still in Phase 1. Developing nations are typically in Phase 2, with developed nations in stages 3 and 4.

Phases of Transition

• Phase 1 (Preindustrial): Slow population growth because high birth rates and high death rates which offset each other.
• Phase 2 (Transitional): Rapid population growth because birth rates remain high but death rates decline because of better sanitation, clean drinking water, availability of food and health care.
• Phase 3 (Industrial): Stable population growth as the economy and educational system improves and people have fewer children (birth rate and death rate offset each other again).
• Phase 4 (Post-Industrial): Declining population growth because the relatively high level of affluence and economic develop encourage women to delay having children, suppressing the birth rate. The death rate begins to rise and outpace the birth rate as the elderly population begins to die off.

Phases Summary

Subsistence: the action or fact of maintaining or supporting oneself at a minimum level .

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Family Planning

• Family planning: The practice of regulating the number or spacing of offspring through the use of birth control.
• Fertility is strongly related to female education and affluence in many developing countries.
• Greater affluence and more education provides women with options to enter the workplace and feel empowered to not have as many children.

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Population Growth and the Environment

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• Both population and economic development contribute to the consumption of resources and to human impact on the environment.
• China and India are by far the largest nations in the world.
• Only 3 of the 12 most populous countries are developed nations.
• Population growth in developed countries has mostly ceased, while in developing countries population growth is slowing, but expected to continue beyond 2050.

Resource Use and Per Capita Ecological Footprints

• Differences in resource use are striking in terms of how population and wealth affect the environment.
• Many countries exceed the global average footprint of 2.7 ha per capita.
• A high per capita ecological footprint coupled with a high population can be disastrous for the environment.
• Even nations with low per capita footprints like China, can still have enormous environmental impact because of their incredible population sizes.

IPAT Equation

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• As nations develop, their environmental impact expands.
• Although it is written as a mathematical model, the IPAT equation is a conceptual representation of the 3 major factors that influence environmental impact.
• Population: a larger population size → greater resource consumption → greater impact.
• Affluence: more affluence → a greater the resource consumption → greater impact (although this can be complicated, see Kuznet’s curve).
• Technology: the relationship between technology and impact is complicated. Some technologies (like CFCs) can degrade environmental conditions, while others (like LED lights) can improve efficiency and conserve resources.

The Kuznets Curve

• This model suggests that as per capita income in a country increases, environmental degradation first increases and then decreases.
• Initial technologies (e.g. fluorescent lights) are less efficient and more damaging than newer technologies (e.g. LEDs)
• In many respects, China is on the first part of this curve while the United States is on the second part of the curve.

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This model helps explain why the A (affluence) and T (technology) in the IPAT equation can be complicated: the impacts affluence and technology change over time as nations develop, become wealthier and grow more advanced, improving their technologies.

Economic Impacts of of Demographic Transition

• Capitalistic economic models require continuous growth, which runs against the declining population growth predicted by demographic transition.

As populations declines, economies will suffer because of:

• Reduced workforce.
• Reduced consumer demand.
• Reduced tax revenue for governments.

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Why Humans Are Vanishing:

This video helps to explain human population growth patterns.

The economic impacts of demographic transition are probably beyond this course and the AP Exam, but still interesting and relevant!

Differences in Growth Rates

Developed Nations

• Typically have lower population growth rates, but greater access to technology and affluence.
• Greater access to education provides women with more opportunities and fewer incentives to have large families.
• Greater affluence provides enhanced access to family planning.
• Reduced prevalence of farming lifestyle means children are not seen as an economic asset; more expensive to raise them.

Developing Nations

• Typically have higher population growth rates but lower access to technology and affluence.
• Lower education for women → less family planning and fewer workplace options → larger families.
• Less affluence means families typically do not have access to family planning resources.
• Children are viewed as an economic asset and needed to help provide manual labor.

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Global vs. Local Impacts

• The scale of an impact depends on the nature of the economy and the degree to which society has developed.
• Highly localized impacts are typical of rural, agriculturally-based societies. 
• Global impacts are more common in affluent or urban societies.
• Urban area: An area that contains more than 385 people per square kilometer (1,000 people per square mile).

Example of an Urban Impact: Urban Heat Island Effect

• A consequence of urbanization is the formation of urban heat islands as a result of blacktop radiation and decreased albedo.
• "Urban heat islands" occur when cities replace natural land cover with dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat (pavement has low albedo).
• This effect increases energy costs (e.g. for air conditioning), air pollution levels, and heat-related illness and mortality.

Albedo: The percentage of incoming sunlight reflected from a surface.

Sustainable Development is a Common by Often Elusive Goal

• According to The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (UN):
• Ecosystem sustainability will be threatened if the human population continues along its current path of resource consumption around the globe.
• The continued alterations to ecosystems that have improved human well-being (greater access to food, clean water, suitable housing) will also exacerbate poverty for some populations (negative externality).
• If we establish sustainable practices, we may be able to improve the standard of living for a large number of people (positive externality).
• It is tempting to think that as developing nations advance we will push humanity beyond the Earth’s ability to support society, but the Theory of Demographic Transition offers hope: as nations develop, increasing affluence will reduce and even reverse population growth thereby reducing impact (think IPAT).

Do The Math: Calculating Population Growth

• See page 233 of the textbook.
• Make sure to review the math problem and make sure you understand the set up, especially the dimensional analysis.
• Your Turn answer =
• 350 years

Module Review:

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• In this module we examined the theory of demographic transition, which states that in some countries, the process of industrialization causes a reduction in the population growth rate.
• Slower population growth is typical of many countries that have industrialized and become wealthier.
• Some nations that have slowed in population growth have not industrialized.
• Those countries that have industrialized typically increase their consumption of resources, with adverse impacts on the environment.
• Impacts can occur locally and globally. Some locations are beginning to take on the challenge of fostering industrialization and economic development in a sustainable manner.