DEMYSTIFYING CLIMATE RISK:
DIMENSIONS AND LEARNING FOR LOCALLY LED ADAPTATION PRACTICES
July 3, 2024 | Rural India Conference, Chennai
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CONTENTS
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CLIMATE CHANGE – A GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
Anthropogenic climate change has unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020
Future climate change is projected to increase the severity of impacts across natural and human systems and will increase regional differences
Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected
South Asia has contributed only about 4 percent of global CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2022)
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~3.5-34 inches (2.8 ft) sea level rise by the end of the century
Rank 2
Highest disaster risk (2022)
~$180 Bn
losses due to climate disasters in past 2 decades
60%
landmass prone to earthquakes
14Mn
climate migrants in 2020
75%
districts prone to hydromet disasters
~50%
population will face lower living standards by 2050
Severe heatwave in Apr-May 2022, will increase 8-fold by 2050
Vulnerabilities and Impact
Varied geography characterised by deserts, mountains, forests, a long coastline; tropical climate with variable monsoonal and other weather patterns
Flood Hazard
Cyclone Hazard
Earthquake Hazard
INDIA CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK PROFILE
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INDIA’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE
4.4% total income
lost by poor households due to floods relative to better-off households
5% greater loss
by poor households due to extreme weather relative to better-off households
>80%
Indians live in districts vulnerable to climate risks
700 million
People in rural India are at maximum risk from climate change
India is experiencing a range of climate impacts, from floods and droughts to heat waves and glacier melt. Rural populations, in particular, with their limited resources and livelihood challenges, experience disproportionate effects despite their smaller contribution to it
Women face greater vulnerability due to limited access to resources, poor health, restricted participation etc.
District-level vulnerability profile of India based on four Quartiles (Quartile I include the top 25% of most vulnerable districts, and Quartile IV includes the bottom 25% of vulnerable districts)
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Negative impacts of climate change may result in crop failure, food insecurity, water scarcity and income instability
Small holder farmers are usually disproportionately affected by climate change and have less adaptative capacities.
45.76% of the total workforce was engaged in agriculture and allied sectors during 2022-23, mainly in rural areas (NSSO)
Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat and U.P. have highest share of vulnerable districts.
INDIA’S DISTRICT VULNERABILITY MAPPING - AGRICULTURE
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
Only 4% of world’s renewable water resources is in India
Precipitation varies from about 100 mm in the western parts of Rajasthan to over 10,000 mm in Meghalaya.
Per capita water availability in India is reducing progressively
40 million hectare of area is flood-prone, and 51 mha. area is drought prone, constituting 28% of total geographical area
Availability of water is highly uneven in both space and time, with monsoon confined only to four months in a year.
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IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON RURAL LIVELIHOODS
Temperatures in excess of 46°C have been recorded in many parts of the country, especially north and central India.
Extreme precipitation and flooding have affected several parts of India in recent years.
Glacier breaks, flash floods, and avalanches have caused severe flooding in recent years. These events caused massive damage to crops, public infrastructure, and private property across several districts in India
Climate variability usually impacts sectors that are traditionally associated with women, such as paddy cultivation, cotton and tea plantations, and fishing
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Adaptive capacity is the “ability of a system to adjust to climate change, including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences.” (IPCC, 2001)
Integration of the socio-economic and cultural aspects
This is needed while assessing specific impacts of climate risks and hazards as they play a crucial role in adaptation planning.
ENHANCING RURAL INDIA’S ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Adaptation is a development pre-requisite
India’s experience shows that the fundamental pre-requisite of development is adaptation, especially reducing vulnerability and exposure.
Several efforts to mainstream adaptation efforts while furthering developmental requirements underway
A range of schemes/ projects/ programmes has been contributing to improved adaptive capacities and reduced socioeconomic vulnerabilities of the people.
Hierarchy of adaptation strategies needed
The projected impact of climate change would further require development of a hierarchy of adaptation strategies across governance tiers.
Women as active agents of change
Women who are already experiencing the effects of weather related hazards are developing effective coping strategies. Further efforts should be made to support women’s role in adaptation
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In agriculture, adaptation can also generate mitigation effects, making it a worthwhile investment.
Farmers adopting sustainable agricultural practices eligible for Kyoto Mechanisms can earn carbon credits, boosting income and attracting investments for sustainable development.
Mitigation co-benefits of adaptation is explicitly referenced in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement
Activities such as afforestation and renewable energy use have both adaptation as well as mitigation benefits, and are generally effective in rural settings, contributing to income generation and improved livelihoods alongside addressing climate challenges
CLIMATE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND ITS MITIGATION CO-BENEFITS
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Protecting, restoring, and sustainably managing carbon-rich ecosystems could mitigate 8-14 Gt CO2e annually from now until 2050
Kikruma in Nagaland developed the Ruza system, a traditional water management practice, to overcome water scarcity and achieve good harvest
Potato cultivation in alder grown jhum fields, Nagaland
The Indian government launched the Pradhan Mantri Van Dhan Yojna to support tribal and forest-dwelling communities. This initiative integrates traditional knowledge with technology to create value-added products, aiming to curb out-migration and sustain indigenous knowledge transfer
LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) was introduced at COP26, aimed at environment friendly lifestyles and practices. Mission LiFE encompasses a non-exhaustive list of 75 individual LiFE actions have been identified across 7 themes – save water and energy, reduce waste, e-waste and single-use plastics, and adopt sustainable food systems and healthy lifestyles.
LEVERAGING TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS
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Climate change impacts are manifested locally
It affects livelihoods, economic activities, health risks, etc., shaped by local economic and socio-environmental factors.
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are context-specific
Revealing significant local variations often hidden by macro-level vulnerability indices.
Local adaptation actions shape decision-making and behaviours
These actions are critical for policymakers and practitioners to monitor, evaluate, and adjust policies and projects effectively.
Schematic of the GLG (global-to-local-to-global) linkages in the context of climate change
INTEGRATING LOCAL INTO MACRO ANALYSIS
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Tribal communities in North-East India - practiced shifting cultivation, developing their own knowledge systems, focused on the use of Nepalese alder and bamboo species, enhancing soil fertility and food production.
Bihar - marginal and small-scale farmers use indigenous knowledge in crop management, crop watch practices, soil health etc.
Karnataka – Soligas tribes practiced controlled ground fire which is good for the control of invasive species, regeneration of local indigenous species, dormancy of seeds, regenerate food for wildlife etc.
Ladakh - traditional agricultural system involves crop rotation, organic waste management, recycling of nutrients through the use of livestock etc. which enhances high quality yield
Watermelon Cultivation in local farms of Ladakh
Source: Defence Institute of High Altitude Research, DRDO
The Soligas tribe of Karnataka, who created history by becoming the first tribal community to win a legal battle to stay in a tiger reserve in India
Kerala - Kumdumshree, a women empowerment initiative by the Kerala government, raised 11 crore in donations during the Kerala floods. They cleaned 1.13 lakh homes, 3,100 public spaces, and provided psychosocial support to 11,000 people during floods (NIDM)
EXAMPLES OF LOCALISED BEST PRACTICES
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Thank you
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