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BEYOND ECONOMIC METRICS: ASSESSING THE MULTI-FACETED INFLUENCES SHAPING THE SIZE OF URBAN AREAS

The 14th World Conference of the Regional Science Association International

8 to 11 April, 2024

John von Neumann University in Kecskemét, Hungary

Authors: Vladislav Marjanović, Jelena J. Stanković, Ivana Marjanović*, Marina Stanojević, Dragana Radenković-Jocić

*ivana.veselinovic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs

This research is part of the 101059994 – UR-DATA - HORIZON-WIDERA-2021-ACCESS-02 project, funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the European Research Executive Agency can be held responsible for them.

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Introduction

The United Nations, in its demographic assessments, underscores the pervasive nature of this trend, revealing that the global urban population exceeded 55% in 2020, with projections indicating a further rise to 70% by the year 2050
This statistic, as indicated by UN-Habitat, underscores the fundamental role these regions play in fostering sustainable economic growth—an imperative for international initiatives aimed at "building back better" and transitioning towards comprehensive sustainable development
This holds particular relevance for the Western Balkans, where United Nations forecasts suggest that the urban population proportion is expected to rise by 2050, surpassing the global average.(Gursoy & Kodaz, 2021)
The aim of the paper: identify the primary factors influencing urban dimensions, with a specific emphasis on Serbian urban areas.
Methodology: a panel regression analysis approach
Sample: 24 Serbian cities over a twelve-year period from 2011 to 2022

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Characteristics of Urbanization in the Republic of Serbia (1)�

The significant changes in the development of cities in Serbia have been brought about by the political and economic instability of the 1990s. This period, marked by transition from a centrally controlled industrialization model to a market economy, has resulted in substantial transformations
In the Republic of Serbia, urban sprawl has given rise to several concerning issues. These include regional disparities and polarization (Maksin-Mićić, 2008)
The settlement network in the Republic of Serbia displays a heterogeneous and disproportionate structure, marked by uneven distribution across various factors such as settlements, population, highly skilled labor, and employment rates (Srnić et al., 2021)
The majority of settlements within the overall network are small-scale, with urban settlements accounting for slightly more than 3% of the entire network (Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, 2023).

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Characteristics of Urbanization in the Republic of Serbia (2)

Nevertheless, there is a significant concentration of both population and activities in urban centers, with approximately 60% of the population residing in urban settlements (Srnić et al., 2021).
However, urban settlements in Serbia are facing depopulation and considerable polarization.
Twenty-two out of twenty-eight cities in Serbia experience a negative migration balance, with only Belgrade and Novi Sad seeing a significant influx of population
The uneven demographic development and transitional economic transformation have led to differing levels of attractiveness among urban areas in the Republic of Serbia (Đurkin et al., 2021)
Faced with depopulation, most cities in Serbia are required to craft development policies aimed at enhancing their attractiveness. Achieving this goal requires a comprehensive examination of the factors contributing to the appeal of cities.

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Exploring the Notion of Urban Appeal

Attracting highly skilled workers is essential for urban growth, as the economic progress of cities hinges on the expertise and contributions of these individuals (Buch et al, 2017)
While the economic success of cities is often seen as central to their attractiveness, there's a growing consensus that other factors are equally relevant and deserve consideration (Marchesani, 2023)

Urban attractiveness can be understood as the city's ability to meet conditions that dissuade current residents from leaving while also enticing prospective residents to consider relocating there (Fertner et al., 2015)

Studying urban growth and understanding its underlying determinants is essential for anticipating its extensive impacts (Marshall, 2007).

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Model, data and results of the analysis

VARIABLES	Estimates
Earnings	0.187**
	(0.0612)
Healthcare	-2.354
	(6.427)
Accessibility	4.124**
	(2.325)
Tourists	0.238***
	(0.0415)
Environment	4.324**
	(0.875)
PrimaryEducation	25.4
	(12.124)
Constant	12,752**
	(1,938)

Observations	264
Number of cities	24
R-squared	0.398

Standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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Conclusion

In recent decades, there has been a growing focus on urban attractiveness, particularly in the context of formulating regional development policies.
This attention stems from the recognition that urban areas are evolving into hubs of economic activity within knowledge-based economies.
With human capital being a key determinant of urban competitiveness, the challenge of attracting skilled labor to urban areas has become increasingly crucial.

Unlike traditional resources, human resources are mobile

In the past, financial incentives were often viewed as the primary factor influencing relocation decisions. However, in contemporary times, other benefits hold equal allure