SUPPLY CHAIN�ANALYTICS

Delivery Performance & Late Delivery Prediction

Employee meeting presentation

180,518

ORDERS ANALYZED

57.3%

DELAY RATE

42.7%

ON-TIME RATE

Decision Tree

BEST MODEL

DataCo Supply Chain dataset

What this analysis is designed to answer

A business view of delivery performance and risk

02

01

Current position

How often are orders delayed, and how large is the schedule deviation?

02

Pattern

Which shipping, regional, customer, department, and time dimensions show higher delay rates?

03

Action

Where should management focus operational review, and can late-delivery risk be predicted?

Delivery performance at a glance

The main issue is frequency of delay

03

180,518

TOTAL ORDERS

103,399

DELAYED ORDERS

57.3%

DELAY RATE

1 day

MEDIAN DEVIATION

INSIGHT

Delay is not an isolated event

57.3% of analyzed orders exceeded scheduled shipping time. The median deviation is 1 day, while the 90th percentile is 2 days.

• More than half of the order base is affected.
• The distribution supports a process-level review rather than only individual exceptions.

Shipping mode is the strongest visible pattern

Premium service levels do not automatically translate into better observed delivery performance

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INSIGHT

What the chart suggests

First Class has the highest observed delay rate at 100.0%. Second Class is also high at 79.7%. Standard Class is lower at 39.8%.

• Review carrier assignment and route design.
• Compare promised service levels with actual performance.
• Check whether premium orders are concentrated in harder-to-serve lanes.

Regional and customer patterns are more moderate

Useful for prioritization, but not the primary signal

05

INSIGHT

Regional insight

Central Africa has the highest regional delay rate at 60.7%. Regional variation is visible but less pronounced than the shipping-mode difference.

INSIGHT

Customer insight

Home Office has the highest segment rate at 57.5%. The overall segment spread is relatively small.

Department differences point to targeted review

The highest-delay departments can be examined for fulfillment constraints

06

INSIGHT

Highest observed department

Pet Shop has the highest delay rate at 61.4%.

• Health and Beauty : 58.6%
• Technology: 58.4%
• Review inventory availability, fulfillment time, and carrier assignment.
• Treat these results as associations, not proven root causes.

Financial view

Delivery status shows modest differences in selected average measures

07

INSIGHT

What the chart suggests

Average benefit per order is $21.58 for delayed orders versus $22.50 for on-time orders. Sales per customer also differs between the groups.

• The current analysis does not prove that delay causes financial loss.

• A stronger business case would add revenue, profit, discount, shipping cost, and customer-impact measures.

When are delays more common?

Time patterns can support capacity and cutoff planning

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INSIGHT

Interpretation

Month 12 has the highest monthly rate at 57.9%. The highest observed hourly periods are 12:00, 20:00, 22:00.

Predictive model results

Three baseline classifiers were compared using F1 as the primary selection measure

09

0.763

BEST F1 SCORE

0.746

BEST ACCURACY

INSIGHT

Selected baseline

Decision Tree produced the highest F1 score among the three tested models.

• The model supports prioritization of higher-risk orders.
• It should be validated and improved before operational deployment.

From analysis to action

Five areas for management and operations to review

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01

Shipping mode

Review carrier, routing and service-level performance.

02

High-delay regions

Investigate coverage, transit time and regional constraints.

03

High-delay departments

Review inventory, fulfillment time and carrier assignment.

04

Capacity planning

Use monthly and hourly patterns to review workload and cutoffs.

05

Risk prioritization

Use the predictive model as a supporting decision tool.

Management takeaway

The analysis points to focused operational review rather than broad intervention

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57.3%

DELAY RATE

100.0%

FIRST CLASS DELAY

61.4%

HIGHEST DEPT DELAY

0.763

BEST MODEL F1

INSIGHT

Core message

Delivery performance is a recurring operational issue. Shipping mode is the strongest visible pattern, while regional and department analysis helps identify where deeper review should begin.

INSIGHT

Decision support

The predictive model adds an order-level risk perspective. It is best used alongside operational knowledge and further validation.

The next step is to connect these patterns with carrier, fulfillment, inventory, and cost data.

Thank you

Questions & discussion

Supply Chain Analytics | Delivery Performance & Late Delivery Prediction