Forecasting the World in 2030

Matt Caffrey

Disclaimer

The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the the Air Force Research Lab, USAF, or the US Government.

Why listen to me?

• Led Wargaming AFRL – previous positions:
• Professor of Wargaming, Air Comd & Staff Col
• Research Associate for wargaming, School for Advanced Airpower Studies
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments:
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/Speaker:
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

Why Should I Listen To You

• Scenario In Second Draft – Lots of Time to Modify
• This group is much more knowledgeable then you give yourself credit for, informal (and formal) scholars and in some cases makers of military history.
• This group is much more intuitive then you give yourself credit for, having fought many, many wars, campaigns and battles.

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To Begin

As form follows function you need to know a little about our function before you can offer suggestions on the form.

What is the AFRL Wargame?

It is decision support wargame that serves three sets of leaders:

• HQ US Air Force
• HQ AF Research Laboratory
• Concept Leads

The Challenge

Each group of leaders make decisions about different things:

• HQ USAF: Organize, Train and Equip
• HQ AFRL: Science and Technology Resource Prioritization
• Concept Leads: Creating / Optimizing technology enabled capability Concepts

The Challenge

Hence each group of leaders need different things from the wargame:

• HQ USAF: military utility, adjudication, uses and counters
• HQ AFRL: military utility
• Concept Leads: military utility, uses and counters, attribute priorities, feedback on descriptions

Influences on WG Design/Scenario

• Objectives for HAF Title 10 wargames:
• Unified Engagement 10
• Futures Game 11
• Guidance from past AFRL/CC – QDR threat scope:
• Irregular
• Catastrophic
• Disruptive
• Traditional
• Guidance from Concept Leadership – provide context relevant to all depicted concepts
• Restraints and Constraints
• There will be war

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Restraints and Constraints

• Venue: AFWI 14 – 18 June 2010
• Budget: about the same as 09
• Era: 2030
• Feedback from 09: more granularity, same depth, slightly less breadth
• Feedback from test: tie scenario closely to concepts
• Other: Do NOT use a defense planning scenario

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Design Parameters

Granularity

Depth

Scope

Depth

Scope

Ambush

Engagements

Economics

Sniper

Battles

Campaigns

Wars

Human Factors

Diplomacy

Infrastructure

Logistics

Attrition

Individual (Aircraft, ships, tanks)

Sub-Systems

Squadrons

Components

Joint Task Forces

Sib-Components

Corps

Systems

Parameter

Tradeoffs

For a set amount of time the sum of Scope, Depth and Granularity will remain constant.

Scenario Overview

• Read ahead: Context – World in year 2028, “example” nations
• Theater Brief: Theater – problems & opportunities
• Crisis Brief: Road to crisis in year 2030
• crisis action planning
• Move 1: Deterrence
• Move 2: Defense
• Move 3: Decisive Engagement
• Move 4: Counter Offensive
• Move 5: Stability and Reconstruction

The Road To 2028

• 2008-2010 The Great Recession
• The 2010s - The Rise of the Rest
• Globalization raises living standards – unevenly
• As # of US patents rise % of world total drops
• Inflation, mostly worrisome climate changes
• Impact on example nations
• The 2020s – “Rise” & Climate Change accelerates
• Boom in the Arctic
• Sea level & temperature rise, rain patterns shift
• Impact on example nations

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13

World in 2028�The Rise of the Rest

• Demographics: + 2 Billion, but slowing
• More gray, more urban
• Climate Change: Temp + 1, Sea level +.3 M
• Economics: +1/3 standard of living, but uneven
• Technology: Diffusion and Acceleration
• Civilian: Cyber Boom, +6 Life Span, Energy
• Military: Evolution, New High End
• Political
• Transparency/International Interest
• Oppression/E-Democracy

14

Focus Down to one Combatant Command (COCOM)

Theater Brief Phase

• Inputs (Blue & Red):
• Brief on Command & Theater
• Years 2026-2028 “On The Shelf” Plan
• Concept Descriptions
• Outputs:
• Revised/New plan the years 2028-2030
• S&T IPL List

Crisis Briefing

• Inputs
• Road to Crisis
• Intelligence Briefing
• Warning Order
• S&T IPL requests fulfilled
• Output: Move 1
• Outline Campaign Plan
• Detailed Deterrence Phase Plan
• Preliminary Defense Plan

Defense Phase

• Inputs:
• Intelligence Briefing
• National Command Guidance
• Output: Move 2
• Updated to Outline Campaign Plan (if any)
• Detailed Defense Phase Plan

Decisive Engagement Phase

• Inputs
• Intelligence Briefing
• National Command Guidance
• Output: Move 3
• Updated to Outline Campaign Plan (if any)
• Detailed Decisive Engagement Phase Plan

Counter Offensive Phase

• Inputs
• Intelligence Briefing
• National Command Guidance
• Output: Move 4
• Updated to Outline Campaign Plan (if any)
• Detailed Counter Offensive Phase Plan

Stability & Reconstruction Phase

• Inputs
• Intelligence Briefing
• National Command Guidance
• Output: Move 5
• Updated to Outline Campaign Plan (if any)
• Detailed Stability & Reconstruction Phase Plan

Analysis/Data Capture

• Lead appointed for Analysis/Data Capture
• Establish insights needed by each set of leaders
• Design Analysis Plan to provide insights,
• Design Data Collection to feed analysis
• Data Elements to include:
• Ranking by individuals:
• Before Event begins
• If you would refight scenario
• If you would build force structure for 2022
• Records of adjudication – especially game truth
• Team out briefs and record of open discussion
• Capture Logs & Forms – redesigned and on line
• Synthetic Histories

22

Hot Wash Prep

• Final Intel Brief
• Overview Brief

Feedback to Decision Makers

• 3 Synthetic Histories
• 1 to N Rankings of concepts
• Before, after theater, after global
• By sets of participants
• Logs of concept use
• Reports on each concept

Conclusion

• Scenario was crafted to serve three sets of decision makers
• Scenario reflects guidance, goals, restraints and constraints
• Scenario depicts types of challenges US is likely to face
• The scenario is a means to an end and can still be shaped to better serve the needs of decision makers