Daily Market Journal

Date:

23.06.2024 Sunday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Low volatility: Orange path: It’s a totally dead sunday, with some sweeps of both sides at the end of the day.”
• We saw a low volatility sunday. Now a start of a small selloff. We didnt take out the highs.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Low volatility price action until sunday midday
• We lost the green H1 bands
• We had a small move down with above average volume
• Currently we are at the 64K level

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =64055)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 60117.4 (Swing Low before the bullish FOMC meeting)

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• HTF Opens
• 66653.5 (Weekly Open) we are currently below it (rejected) = bears in control
• 67577.9 (Monthly Open) we are currently below = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB Daily 1)
• 60950 - 63099.6 (Bullish OB Daily 2)

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• Key POC levels
• 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily 1)
• 61616.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily 2)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) we disrespected it by chopping on it, we lost it and moved lower
• 67200 (Pivot level)
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot) also a key OPEX level
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew the Volume Profile from the ATH to the bottom at 56500

We can also see here, that 69-70K is a very key level, that is the upper end of the value area of the Volume Profile

Above 69300 we can see that there has been some volume distributed between 69K - 71386 (which is a key ATH pivot and the highest monthly close too)

So for me its very easy:

• below 70K, probably bit more consolidation needed, chop
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• Above 71386 we can easily move quickly to ATH and beyond. If we clear that level we cleared the last major resistance before ATH.

Todays update: We are at the lower end of the Value Area. Holding it so far.

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June 28 BTC OPEX Levels

• We have a bunch of huge call-walls above 70K
• These are: 70K, 75K, 80K, 85K, 90K
• Conclusion: If we get above 70K, and we have a catalyst to move aggressively higher, the sellers of these calls would need to buy in order to cover their positions

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• We also have a big call-wall at
• 60K and 65K
• Conclusion: These could act both as support or resistance. Price could ping-pong between 60-70K if there is no strong catalyst to move

Daily update: 60K support, 65K and 70K resistance.

CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

10.57%

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• There is a divergence between the spot and futures CVD, where the spot CVD is showing buying pressure, as the futures CVDs are neutral / down.
• Divergence in price and OI, whereas price sold off but OI is still sideways
• Funding below neutral
• Spot premium present

Low volatility, spot buying pressure is good to see. Some OI got added which didn’t get wiped so far. Weekend excess OI tends to be wiped so maybe some sweeps to come.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Layers on both sides
• The low could be swept, the question is if we can hold it after we sweep it

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• BTC slightly holding up better than ALTs
• ALTs bit weaker, some as ETH
• BTC D small green day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Back to the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 33.9B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 15.58B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

45.9%

Todays changes:

• A decline of 220mil in total OI

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• CME decline of 50mil in OI
• Bybit added 90mil in OI
• Other major exchanges OI sideways

Todays changes:

• 190mil of total OI added

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• Major exchanges OI sideways

BTC possible paths

1. Squeeze: Green path: We reclaim the H1 bands and turn them back to green. We have a squeeze higher towards the 2021 Aprils High pivot (65K), which is also a key OPEX resistance. We might reject there.

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• Chop: Orange path: We continue to chop. We take out the highs and chop around the H1 bands.

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• Weakness: Red path: We roll over at the beginning of the week. We might take out the lows and even touch into the daily Order Block below.

Stocks, Macro

• Weekend, markets closed.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• ONDO had yesterday a 2D close slightly below around the MSB level.
• I exited my main ONDO position following the plan.
• If it can spend multiple days above the green level it might still be a bullish setup
• But breaking the MSB level is a big sign of weakness

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• Low volatility, “boredom”.
• This is exactly what you want to see.
• Time and price based capitulation.
• No big green days, no big gains for people.
• People get just depressed and exit their positions as they are not moving.
• This is the best thing you could see if you would want a move higher later.
• We also might see a price based capitulation too, if we do, I think that would be a bullish setup for the future.

Further notes about the market - if any

No further notes about the market.