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Extreme Weather – How Do We Track and Analyze It? And Why?

Kevin Manross

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Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

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7 March 2022

American Scientific Affiliation, Rocky Mountain Chapter

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A bit about myself

  • Originally from NW PA
    • 1985 Tornado outbreak on last day of 6th grade
    • Scared of storms as a kid
  • BA Mathematics from Edinboro Univ. of PA (1996)
  • BS Meteorology from University of Oklahoma (2000)
  • MS Atmospheric Sciences Texas Tech Univ (2002)

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A bit about myself

  • Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (OU) 2002-2012
    • Detailed at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (Norman, OK)
    • Weather radar algorithm development for severe weather applications
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, CO) 2012-2014
    • Data management supporting climate research
  • Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CSU) 2014-present
    • Detailed at the NOAA Global Systems Laboratory (Boulder, CO)
    • Software development for NWS issuing watch/warning/advisories
    • Project manager for implementing Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs)

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A bit about myself

  • Storm/tornado chasing since 1997
  • Participated in numerous field observation studies
    • Sub-VORTEX (1999)
    • STEPS (2000)
    • Hydrometorological Testbed 2005
    • Debris Flow Studies (2005-6)
    • Salt River Project (2005)
    • VORTEX-2 (2010)
  • AMS Summer Policy Colloquium (2011)

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A bit about myself

  • Currently resides in Westminster with wife Jo and 6 month old son Ezekiel

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  • I was raised in the church
  • Continue exploring/following Jesus’s “long obedience in the same direction” of God’s self-sacrificing love
  • How to encourage my colleagues and friends
  • How to serve the public through information that aims to protect life and property
  • Playing my role in revealing the Kingdom on Earth as it is in Heaven

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Section 1: Extreme Weather

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

  • Ask audience?

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(MARK LENNIHAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS)

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“Extreme” Vs “Severe”

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Severe

  • Based on Impacts

A man rides his bicycle through a damaged road in Toa Alta, west of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on September 24, 2017. RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP/Getty Images

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Severe

  • Severe can be “Normal”

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Types of Severe Weather

  • Local Storms
    • Damaging Winds
    • Hail
    • Tornadoes

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Types of Severe Weather

  • Hurricanes

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Types of Severe Weather

  • Precipitation
    • Rain
      • Excessive
        • Flooding
      • Freezing
    • Snow
    • Hail

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Types of Severe Weather

  • Drought
  • Heat Waves

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Rich Pedroncelli/AP

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Types of Severe Weather

  • Other
    • Winter storms
    • Atmospheric Rivers
    • Strong Extra Tropical Cyclones (ETC - not to be confused with ECT!)
      • Nor’Easter
      • “Eunice”
        • European Storm
        • Feb 2022

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Weather and climate

https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/climate-data-primer/whats-difference-between-climate-and-weather

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A quick word about weather and climate…

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

  • Statistics

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

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  • “Normals” = 30 year average updated every 10 years

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

  • Normals

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

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  • We can determine our “normals” and thus “extremes” from any data

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

  • statistical exceedance of maxima/minima

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  • Does event ____ fall outside of ‘normals”

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  • frequency of severe/extremes
    • How often does an extreme event occur?

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What do we mean by “extreme” weather?

Diversity in geography

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Diversity in time of year or even day

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Normals / Climatology

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

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Normals / Climatology

Time of year

Time of day

Location

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Why do we care about extreme events?

  • Contextualization for watch/warning/advisory
    • SBES (Social, Behavioral, Economic Sciences) tells us that
      • People need a reference point to understand the impacts of a given event
      • People will look for secondary confirmation of an event
        • Think of a tornado warning when seconds may matter

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Why do we care about extreme events?

  • Flood watch/warning statements
    • “The ___ river is expected to crest at 6.7 ft.”
    • “The last time the ___ river crested this high was in 1953”

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  • How often do we see an event like the 1976 Big Thompson Flood?

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  • How rare was the 2013 Boulder County Flood?

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Why do we care about extreme events?

  • Planning and policies

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  • 1997 Ft. Collins Flood
    • Mitigation

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Why do we care about extreme events?

  • May 3, 1999 Moore/OKC tornado:

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    • Many homes sustained EF5 Damage but building practices prior meant that homes were susceptible to such damage at lower wind speeds
      • Many Roofs “held on” by gravity
    • New building practices to ensure roofs are attached to walls and walls attached to foundation
    • Safe rooms
      • Rebates, etc.

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Section 2: Observations

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How Do We Observe Extreme Events?

  • Observing Networks
  • Spotter Reports

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Observing Networks

  • Surface Observations
    • Temp, RH, Pressure, Wind Speed/Direction/Gusts
    • Visibility
    • Precip

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Observing Networks

  • Balloon Network

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Observing Networks

  • Satellite

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Observing Networks

  • Radar

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Observing Networks

  • Lightning
    • 2D
    • 3D
    • GLM

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What Do We Do With Observations?

  • Archiving
  • NCEI

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What Do We Do With Observations?

  • Bridge to Climate Research
  • Traditional Climatologies
    • Mainly in-situ or remote observations
  • Model Reanalyses
  • Newer Climatologies
    • Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS)
      • Radar Climatology
      • Useful for filling in gaps between reports and providing spatial distribution

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Organizations

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Section 3: My Work - Public Alerting

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Watches, Warnings, and Advisories

  • Back to Impacts Based

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  • “Severe”
  • Messaging

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Watches, Warnings, and Advisories

  • NWS Warning System

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Watches, Warnings, and Advisories

  • NWS Warning System

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FACETs

  • Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats

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FACETs

  • Threats in Motion

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FACETs

  • Probabilistic Hazards Information

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FACETs

  • First Do No Harm
  • How to utilize probabilities in messaging
  • Text, graphics, and NOAA Weather Radio
  • Testing Concepts

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Summary

  • Extremes in weather are defined by statistical “normals” and what lies outside
    • In NOAA “Normals” = 30 year period updated every 10 years
  • Severe can be normal
  • Climatology is gathered from observing events
  • Extremes help us understand long term trend
    • Important for planning and policy
  • Climatology and extremes help provide context
    • Important for messaging, especially for warnings

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Questions?

Kevin Manross

kevin.manross@noaa.gov

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Contents of presentation represent personal experience and not an official representation of NOAA, CSU/CIRA or any other affiliation.