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Daily Market Journal

Date:

12.05.2024 Sunday

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Yesterdays paths, projections

  • “Short squeeze and reject: Purple path: Short compression into H1 bands, then we pop up to take out some shorts and fill in part of the inefficiency. We reject and drift back to the Monthly Open level “
    • So far this thesis is playing out, we squeezed higher after a compression into the bands, and we are rejecting now.
    • Timing wise the squiggle I drew wasnt accurate, but the general thesis is so far playing out

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BTC

  • What did Price do today?
    • Price wicked again into the Monthly Open level today morning
    • After that price went on a short squeeze and took out yesterdays high
    • Price flipped the H1 bands green and is currently above them
    • Relatively small volume on todays squeeze, showing lack of strength in the move
    • I think the H1 bands are a good indicator of the squeeze now; above them we can see further squeeze, and once lost we probably fall back due to momentum loss

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Key Levels (Current BTC Price =)

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    • Liquidity levels (stops resting):
      • UP:
        • 63447.8 (fridays highs) 65540.0 (mondays highs)
      • DOWN:
        • 60111.0 (fridays lows), 56505.0 (local bottom)

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    • HTF Opens
      • 60651.2 (Monthly Open)

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    • OB levels
      • 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB)
      • 65750.0 - 67158.9 (Bearish OB)

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    • Key POC levels
      • 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB)
      • 66721.2 (POC of Bearish OB)

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    • Pivots
      • 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot)
      • 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

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BTC DATA

  • OI, Funding, Spot premium:
    • OI not doing much
    • Divergence in OI and price; price up as OI is sideways and compressing: shows that the move isn't supported by positions
    • Funding below neutral
    • Spot premium still present
  • Liquidation heatmap:
    • We can see liquidity on both sides.
    • Further squeeze could be possible to fill the inefficiency left last week
    • Falling back would also be possible, some longs have also piled in so they could get punished too

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BTC possible paths

  1. Compress and squeeze: Green path: H1 bands stay green, we chop and then we have a 3rd leg of the squeeze, then we bleed out

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  • Take todays highs and fall back: Orange path: We chop around, take out todays highs and reject, we trend back towards the monthly open level

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  • Squeeze done, bleed: Red path: We lose the H1 bands and we bleed out towards the Monthly Open level. That will hold until it wont.

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Alts, BTC D

  • Alts relation to BTC:
    • No ALT outperformance today
    • Alts just bleed in this sideways correction, as BTC had a small squeeze to the upside
    • BTC D small green day

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Stocks, Macro

  • Weekend. Markets are closed.

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Other coins, honorable mentions

  • AKT. Had a nice move up into resistance.
  • As we can see, this current 5.35 level is a key level, multiple Volume Pofile ranges have it as a POC: the most volume was distributed at this level in the past 3 months
  • Looking over the market we can probabilistically say that we will probably trend back to the lows, especially if BTC weakens off during next week
  • Losing this POC on AKT would mean probably a move to support to come, which is the area between 3-4.
  • The 200 EMA has been coming up slowly, now sitting at 3.4. The 200 SMA is currently at 3.26, and it hasnt been tested yet.
  • The 200 SMA could be a liquidity area, where some buying could happen, creating a strong base of support for AKT between the 3-4 level.
  • My plan is to start DCAing back below 4$, and put most of my stack in at the 200 SMA touch.

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Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

  • Market not looking overly strong. Just a low volatility casual chop.
  • Going over most of the coins there is just bleed, and most of them are going down.
  • This is very important to note, to watch the shift when everything stops going down, and you see bases getting formed instead of new lows.
  • Multiple tests of the bottom, and holding, going sideways for weeks over the market, would be a generally good sign of a potential bottom being in.
  • And when stuff starts moving up, and people are coping that it should go up, thats the time when you can start getting long.

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Further notes about the market - if any

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