Wargaming� for Defense Practitioners

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

22 July 13

Purpose

2

To provide defense wargame POCs & Practitioners information on application and execution

Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use & When Not To Use Wargames
• When To Use Internal/External Wargames
• Effective Participation In A Wargame (Overview)
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development

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3

Value of A Wargame Expert

• Identify high value applications for wargames – and identify inappropriate applications
• Maximize value of wargaming
• Accuracy of insights
• Clarity of communications
• Effectiveness of education/training
• Ensure the insights that reach decision makers are appropriate for their needs and include a confidence assessment
• Ensure leaders understand confidence level – especially no WG ever achieves 100% confidence

It will take roughly 50 years of additional evolutionary development before powered flight is achieved.

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Wilbur Wright 1901

What Changed Wilbur’s Mind, �and the World

The Impact

Impacts of Relative MTR Position

Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

To understand why wargames are so helpful it is necessary to understand OODA Loops.

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

OODA

Loop

Boyd predicted, and experience confirms, with experience OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective

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Does this give us an advantage in war?

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

Not necessarily.

As we go through our OODA Loop…

Decide

Orient

Adversary

Observe

War

Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

…Our Adversaries go through their OODA Loop, their OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective just as ours do

Decide

Orient

Observe

Adversary

War

Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

White/Assessment

Blue

Wargames allow their users to improve their decisions and their decision makers without a similar improvement taking place in the enemy

Decide

Orient

Red

Observe

Wargame

Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

OODA Loops of both the Blue and Red players get tighter and decisions get more effective, but Blue’s real adversary is unaffected. So…

Decide

Orient

Observe

Blue

Red

Wargame

White/Assessment

Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

When we do engage our adversary our OODA Loop is shorter and more effective – their’s is unchanged

Decide

Orient

Observe

Adversary

War

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development
• Hands on Wargame

“This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.”

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Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC

" …nothing that happened … was a surprise,

– absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”

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Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz

Advising Leaders on Wargaming

How credible are wargame outcomes?

• Every wargame predicts the future
• Several times a century they are dead-on
• More often, wargame’s forecast differs from actual outcomes, yet is close enough to be useful
• Other times, they are so wrong they have misled

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Given the above,�how can you advise your leadership?

How Accurate Are Wargames?

Each wargame is one pass through a series of chance events; play the same wargame scenario many times, and a range of outcomes will occur.

How Accurate Are Wargames?

Each war is one pass through a series of chance events; as such, many outcomes are possible, with some more likely than others.

How Accurate Are Wargames?

Each war is one pass through a series of chance events; however, what ultimately happens is not necessarily the most likely outcome.

How Accurate Are Wargames?

At best, the outcome distribution of our wargames should match the outcome distribution of reality; then, wargames can suggest which outcomes are possible, along with their relative likelihoods.

How Accurate Are Wargames?

Even when there are many runs, the outcome distribution of wargames seldom matches the outcome distribution of reality – Why?

War

Wargame

Sources of Inaccuracy

• Starting conditions, i.e. the scenario wargamed never happens
• The real Red does not act as in wargame
• The real Blue does not act as in wargame
• Adjudicated outcomes differ from actual outcomes

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Advising Leaders on Wargaming

Two categories of reasons for adjudication inaccuracy:

• The subject being wargamed
• Some subjects are inherently difficult to wargame accurately.
• The standard/level of quality by which the wargame is conducted
• If participating, you can contribute to greater accuracy and provide your boss with an assessment of likely accuracy achieved.
• If conducting the wargame, you can design in greater accuracy.

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Still, it is important to remind your leadership�that even the easiest subject, wargamed brilliantly,�can produce outcomes that will differ from later events – unlikely events sometimes happen

Assessing Confidence�Given Subject Being Wargamed

More Confident

• Tactical
• Physics
• Kinetics
• Red Similar Culture
• Short Duration (Battle)
• Many “Runs”
• Attrition

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Less Confident

• Strategic
• Human Factors
• Non-kinetics
• Red Dissimilar Culture
• Long Duration �(War)
• Few or single “Run”
• Effect

Assessing Confidence�Given Conduct of Wargame

Wargame appropriate for objective

• Situation
• Scenario, plausible
• Data, appropriate scope and level of detail
• Red decisions match real-world decision makers
• Blue decisions match real-world decision makers
• Assessment
• Appropriate treatment of time
• Appropriate assessment of most decisive elements
• Absence of inappropriate command influence

Be clear on what is input & what is outcome

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development
• Hands on Wargame

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between exercises and wargames?

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• Exercises are live military maneuvers/simulated wartime operations.
• Wargames are simulated interactions of armed adversaries.
• Not all wargames are exercises, nor are all exercises wargames.
• Some exercises, like a mobility exercise, have no Red side and are simulation exercises.
• Other exercises, like Red Flag, have a reacting Red and are wargames.
• Some wargames, like COA explorations by an AOC’s Strategy Division, involve few of the people who would execute the COA and are clearly not exercises.
• Other exercises, like ACE and Patriot, include elements of wargame, simulation, experiment, and demonstration.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between an experiment and a wargame?

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• Like wargames, experiments can include Blue, Red, and Assessment elements.
• Experiments hold all but one element constant.
• Wargames require dynamic Blue and Red forces.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Blue, Red, and White cells always defined the same way?

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No

• Blue is almost always friendly forces.
• Light blue is sometimes allied forces.
• Red is usually hostile forces; however…
• Orange is sometimes hostile forces or their allies.
• White typically includes several functions, control, adjudication, analysis, RFI & higher HQs or may only be control
• Green is usually neutral forces and/or civilians.
• Gray is usually commercial technology and/or commercial infrastructure but is sometimes neutral forces.

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Bottom line - check each wargame for details on team “definitions.”

Note: While NATO nations typically use these conventions, some others do not.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do Blue, Red, and White do outside of wargaming?

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Blue

• O Plans

White*, Anticipate:

• Synergies
• Cascading Effects
• System Interactions

Red

• Depends on Red
• Devil's Advocate
• “Murphy’s Law”
• Objective View

* M&S and/or BOGSAT

Frequently Asked Questions

How much do wargames cost $

• Costs vary:
• Zero cost in $$ and duty time
• Example: lunchtime professional development
• Millions of dollars and hundreds of man-months of time
• Example: Larger Title 10 wargames
• Cost elements:
• $$: contract support, fees for assessment software
• Duty time: planning, preparing, event, post event
• Resources: facility space, audio visual, computers

Frequently Asked Questions

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What is the best type of wargame adjudication?

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Wrong Question.

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What type of wargame adjudication is the best fit for your objectives?

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Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use & When Not To Use Wargames
• When To Use Internal/External Wargames
• Effective Participation In A Wargame (Overview)
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development

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When to Use (and Not Use) Wargames

Wargaming is a good option when:

• Forecasting relative military impact/utility given established performance parameters
• Communicating technology impact to nontechnical audience
• Allowing scientists and engineers to apply basic information on military operations – creating virtual veterans, virtual re-bluing

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Wargaming is NOT the best choice when:

• Determining technological feasibility, cost, schedule
• During Wargame Prep; Results used in determination
• Communicating technical information
• Teaching very basic information about military operations

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development
• Hands on Wargame

Advising Leaders on Wargaming�When to Use Internal or External

What are internal and external wargame events?

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Internal wargames:

• A wargame or related event planned and conducted by your organization

External wargames:

• A wargame or related event planned and conducted by an organization other then your own

Advising Leaders on Wargaming�When to Use Internal or External

When to Use Internal Wargames

• Internal wargame better fit when:
• Only an initial idea of military utility desired
• Concept “not ready for prime time”
• No external game will meet needs:
• External wargame will not explore all techs we need examined.
• External wargame is taking place at the time after we need insights.
• Either “fits,” but internal wargame would be cheaper, easier

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When to Use External Wargames

• External wargame better fit when:
• A goal is to educate operators, external leaders in tech impact.
• i.e., Title 10 wargames expose AFRL concepts to “up and coming 2-stars.”
• A goal is to educate AFRL with insights beyond what we can recruit.
• Either “fits,” but external wargame would be cheaper, easier

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�External (e.g., Title 10)

Level of participation should reflect objectives / available resources:

• Send Concepts Only (typically least costly option)
• Ensure concepts are clear, complete.
• Include contact info for SME.
• Send Participants (enhances communications)
• Ensure backgrounds are “good fit” for WG needs.
• Ensure they are prepared.
• Send Both
• Often best option to ensure accurate assessment.
• Typically greatest influence on decision makers.

In some cases, the best option may be to simply get the wargame report

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design/Conduct Of A Wargame
• Wargaming Professional Development
• Hands on Wargame

A Day in the Life of a Wargame

White briefs Blue and Red on situation

Blue and Red analyze situation

Blue and Red Decide on action, brief White

White determines net outcome of actions

White briefs Blue and Red on new situation

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design & Conduct Of Wargames
• Wargaming Professional Development
• Hands on Wargame

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal (e.g., self run)

• Start planning with your End State in mind.

– What organizational objective(s) is the wargame to achieve?

• Establish your parameters up front.
• How much time is available before wargame must be completed?
• What is your “budget,” in terms of:
• $$
• Personnel: government (internal and external), contractor support
• Resources: facilities, audio visual, computers

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Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal

Select/Adapt/Design

• Select: Often a wargame already exists that meets your needs; don’t reinvent the wheel—check with HQ AFRL Wargaming (e.g., Engineer/Strategist WG).
• Adapt: More often, a wargame already exists that almost meets your needs; HQ AFRL Wargaming can help you tailor an existing wargame.
• Design: Sometimes there really is nothing “on the shelf” that is at all close to your needs; HQ AFRL Wargaming can help you to both document your needs and determine the best way to meet them.

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal

Determining Design Basics

As form follows function, design should reflect objectives.

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• Appropriate treatment of time
• Wargame full duration of event.
• Turn cycle match decision cycle.
• Accurate Red, Blue, Theater starting situation
• Project infrastructure, human element.
• Forecast objectives, forces, expendables.
• Forecast tech; include not only military, but also COTS.
• Effective assessment
• Optimize for objectives.
• Comprehensiveness generally impacts accuracy more then detail.

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Wargame design is always a trade-off between speed, scope. and detail.

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal

Granularity

Depth

Scope

Engagements/hours

Economics

Strike/Seconds

Battles/Days

Campaigns/Months

Wars/Years

Human Factors

Diplomacy

Infrastructure

Logistics

Attrition

Individual (Aircraft, ships, tanks)

Sub-Systems

Type Units

Components

Joint Forces

Sub-Components

Service Forces

Systems

Design

Parameter

Tradeoffs

For a set amount of time the sum of Scope, Depth and Granularity will remain constant.

Which Type(s) of Wargame?

Each has advantages and disadvantages.

• Live and virtual types tend to work best for tactical.
• Some strategic wargames can only be constructive.
• A few wargames include all three types.

An Integration of All Wargame Types

National Training Center

Fort Irwin, California

Miniatures

(Terrain Table)

Print

(Map & Chart Ex)

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Computer

Which Type of Constructive Wargame?

Advising Leaders on Wargaming�Which Type of Wargame to Use, and When

Concept Vetting

Constructive Wargame

Virtual Wargame

Live Wargame

New Concept

Advising Leaders on Wargaming�Which Type of Wargame to Use, and When

AFTEG

Unified Engagement

ACE

Red Flag

New Concept

OEF

Maximizing Effectiveness of WGs�Picking an Adjudication Method

Modeling and Simulation Software

• Often poor interfaces, a long time to load scenario
• Limited choice of tools above the tactical level
• No/limited transparency

+ Provides insights into the “envelope” of likely outcomes

Maximizing Effectiveness of WGs�Picking an Adjudication Method

BOGSAT

+ Can assess areas on M&S frontier; i.e. human factors

+ Needs relatively little set up

- Expertise limited, execution relatively slow - unrepeatable

- Typically most likely outcome is determined, the range and likelihood of other outcomes is not captured.

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BOGSAT = Bunch of Guys Sitting Around a Table, i.e., an expert panel

Picking the Level of War�Best Fit For your Objectives

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UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Maximizing Effectiveness of WGs�Internal - Most Common Forms of Adjudication

M&S Software Adjudication

BOGSAT Adjudication

Maximizing Effectiveness of WGs�Internal - Most Common Forms of Adjudication

War

Campaign

Battle

Engagement

M&S Software Adjudication

BOGSAT Adjudication

Popular WGs Adjudication Software

• Joint TACWAR or GCAM > JWARS, JSAF
• Air Force Storm, Thunder, Brawler
• Army*
• Corps, Division EAGLE, CBS
• Brigade & below VIC, JANUS
• Navy JSAF
• USMC MTWS & Army models

* Army also uses JSAF, JNEM, TACSIM & in 08 WARSIM

BMD I-Sim

AF Used WGs Adjudication Software

Widely Used BOGSAT Process

Blue

Red

Deploy Aerial Port

Increase Readiness

Move PrePo

SSMs Leave

Garrison

Shift CVs

Insert SF

Insert SF

Deploy SS

SS Weapons Free

CVs in AOR

CV Sunk

2 SF KIA

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal

Plan

• The first task of planning is to reconcile the wargame’s design against available resources.
• If they don’t reconcile, one or both must change.
• Read any “lessons learned” records from previous wargames.
• Develop a timeline documenting what must be done and by when.
• Plan a little more time than you think you need; something will go wrong.
• If facilities are needed, plan their reservation early.
• If invitations are needed, plan to send out early enough so your invitees can avoid scheduling conflicts.
• Include post-wargame actions in your timeline; thank you letters, an after action report, lessons learned memo.

Maximizing the Effectiveness of WGs�Internal

Execute

• Pregame
• Keep leadership informed of progress.
• If facilities are needed, check them—and any audio visual/computer support—the day before.
• Game
• Maintain a reserve, i.e., have more of what you need in case something goes wrong.
• Postgame
• Get game report, any thank you letters, out ASAP.
• Record lessons learned while fresh in your mind.
• Insights into war
• Insights into wargaming process

Practitioner Block Overview

• Why Wargames Work
• Confidence Levels In Wargames
• Wargaming FAQ
• When To Use Internal/External Wargame
• Effective Participation In A Wargame
• Effective Design/Conduct Of Wargames
• Wargaming Professional Development

Continuing Your Development as WG

• Participate in AFMC cadre development effort
• Participate in wargames CoP
• Participate in wargames
• Participate in professional development events
• Connections, interdisciplinary wargaming
• Military Operations Research Society Symposium
• Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation & Education Conference
• Origins, international strategy game conference

Learning More About Wargaming

• People
• HQ AFMC Wargaming
• HQ AFRL Wargaming
• HQ AFRL and TD M&S SMEs

https://livelink.ebs.afrl.af.mil/livelink/llisapi.dll?func=doc.ViewDoc&nodeId=12898943&viewType=1

• Books
• Peter P. Perla, The Art of Wargaming (Naval Institute Press, 1990)
• Michael W. Garrambone, Matthew B. Caffrey Jr., and Paul Nemec, “Prime Warrior Course: Student Notebook,” AF Wargaming Institute
• Web Sites
• Connections-Wargaming.com
• Modeling & Simulation Information Analysis Center (MSIAC)
• Modeling and Simulation Resource Repository
• M&S Calendar
• Air Force M&S Division (SAF/XCOM) (.MIL Accessible Only)
• Air Force Agency for Modeling & Simulation (AFAMS) (Public)
• Air Force Agency for Modeling & Simulation (AFAMS) (.MIL Accessible Only)
• www.wargaming.quantico.usmc.mil
• http://www.nwc.navy.mil/cnws/
• http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=44118

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Summary

You now know:

• The basics of wargaming
• Key elements of the history of wargaming
• Wargaming frequently asked questions
• When to use wargaming, internal or external
• How to select/adapt/design, plan, and execute a wargame

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Conclusion

You now have the knowledge needed to help ensure the military with which we next go to war IS the military needed.

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The men and women who will come home from war alive and whole because of your work will never know your name – but you will know you’ve had a impact.

Popular WGs Adjudication Software

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CBS – Corps Battle Simulation

COA - Course of Action

GCAM - General Campaign Analysis Model

JSAF - Joint Semiautomated Forces

JWARS – Joint Warfare System

MTWS – Marine Air-Ground Task Force Tactical Warfare System

TACWAR – Tactical Warfare model

VIC – Vector in Commandos model

TACSIM - Tactical Simulation 

JNEM - Joint Nonlethal Effects Model

WARSIM - Warfighter's Simulation