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Introducing the scenarios

This set of scenarios has been adapted from a set developed by the UK Government Office for Science in 2023. They were developed to help policy-makers think about the challenges of climate change.

They are based on extensive research and analysis, including modelling and public dialogues. Because the GO Science versions were focused on the UK, we have adapted them for the Welsh context.

Scenarios are narratives of possible futures. A set of scenarios, such as this one, represents a range of distinctively different possible futures.

They are not predictions, forecasts, or aspirations. They are not a statement of government policy.

They are intended to stimulate futures thinking. Scenarios should help us challenge our ideas about how the future might turn out, and to see blind spots.

In the words of the scenarios practitioner Peter Schwarz, scenarios are “an imaginative leap into the future.”

Introduction

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Scenarios at a glance

Steady society

Connected society

Self preservation society

Atomised society

Technology-led stop-start growth in a polarised society

A low growth world with low trust and high inequality

[Welsh name]

[Welsh one line summary]

[Welsh name]

[Welsh one line summary]

People live locally with less, prioritising maintenance

Technology-led consumption ‘decoupled’ from resources use

[Welsh name]

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Atomised Society (2050s): Overview

In September 2024, ARIA announced £57m in funding for solar geoengineering research. This includes outdoor experiments – the first time a government has ever called for these. Source.

Britain has experienced stop-start growth as a result of technology breakthroughs over 30 years. But the returns from growth are uneven and inequality has increased.
Wales has become a geo-engineering hub, with significant international investment. Supply chain management means that there is considerable re-shoring. But much of this new work is highly automated.
Living standards have improved for those able to participate in the economy, and the affluent continue to consume disproportionately. There is provision of basic services for those also willing to work–just enough to suppress unrest.
The better-off have moved to large houses in the country, often self-powered. These are sometimes the target of militant action. Some people have had to relocate because of repeated flooding, leaving abandoned houses behind.

Atomised Society

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Atomised Society (2050s): Mobility and infrastructure

Indicators

People are more likely to live alone. Most work and socialising happens online, partly because of the turbulent weather. Demand for connectivity and data processing is high.
Wealthy people own CAVs and will only travel in these. They fly as well: long-haul still involves kerosene and offsets. Other parts of the UK have benefitted from high-speed rail, but this has largely passed Wales by.
Those with less money almost exclusively ‘travel’ using the metaverse, visiting places and people virtually. High electricity demand has been met by extensive wind, solar, hydro and tidal power, with battery and some nuclear providing baseload.

Insurance companies require that new homes are built within so-called ‘safe zones’, which are engineered to deflect the worst of the weather.
Mining for rare minerals has also made a comeback, to meet surging demand for new types of materials. Cornwall has benefited from this more than Wales.

Atomised Society

Public transport

LOW

Car use

HIGH

Active travel

LOW

Data use

HIGH

Personal income

+2% p.a.

Resilience

MEDIUM

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Steady Society (2050s): Overview

Since 2017, Repair Cafe Wales has run free, pop-up events for the local community in 130 towns, villages, cities and suburbs, repairing more than 20,000 items in the last two years alone. Source.

Antipathy towards consumerism has dented consumption and economic growth. People live locally and with less, prioritising wellbeing, maintenance and repair.
A ‘make-do-and-mend’ culture is supported by now- commonplace repair shops, community ownership and a culture of borrowing rather than buying from Libraries of Things.
Inequality has declined, with most people living their lives locally and committing more of their time to activities in the community—helped by many businesses adopting a shorter working week to compensate for wage stagnation.
Widespread devolution to towns and regions has increased democratic engagement, especially locally where people can see their input making a difference.

Steady Society

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Steady Society (2050s): Mobility and infrastructure

Indicators

People are concentrated in urban centres and in market towns, which have grown in size. Increasing numbers live in shared accommodation: building work is more about adapting than new build.
Those who can travel to work by foot or bike do so, while others work from home. Public transport for journeys further afield is reliable (weather-permitting) and affordable. Cars are less common.
Trains and boats are commonly taken for long haul travel, and airships have seen a steady renaissance.
Solar and wind power are often locally managed. The grid suffers from outages, but battery storage is common and fills in the gaps.

Nature-based adaptation measures deployed through the 2030s and ‘40s have limited the severity of floods and heatwaves, although high winds still cause trouble.
Some grazing land has been re-purposed to grow climate-resilient crops, after local consultation and compensation. There are still sheep on the uplands.

Steady Society

Public transport

HIGH

Car use

LOW

Active travel

HIGH

Data use

MEDIUM-LOW

Personal income

+1.1% p.a.

Resilience

MEDIUM-HIGH

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Self-Preservation Society (2050s): Overview

Welsh voter turnout in the 2024 UK General Election dropped to 56%. In the Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney constituency, turnout was only 42.7%, with residents feeling ‘forgotten’. Source.

Waves of recession and stagflation have wracked the UK for 30 years. Inequality remains high, although the rich have not got much richer. Social cohesion is low.
Cheap–if low quality–goods from abroad fuel ongoing consumption, although there are frequent supply chain shocks. Domestic manufacturing suffers from lack of skills.
Urban areas are run-down due to lack of investment and weather damage. Parts of low-lying coastal settlements such as Newport, Cardiff and Aberystwyth are no longer habitable.
Trust in business and government is low. Many have left the major tech platforms for smaller, less regulated alternatives. Some have disconnected from social media. Voter turnout has plummeted.

Self-Preservation Society

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Self-Preservation Society (2050s): Mobility and infrastructure

Indicators

Bonds within families, faith-based and ethnic communities have strengthened. These communities tend to be geographically concentrated as members rely on each other for caregiving and mutual support. Some now live self-sufficiently on abandoned farms.
Public transport is in disrepair. The better-off use CAVs, but these are often hacked and connection is patchy in rural areas. Poorer communities share older EVs and e-bikes, although charging can be unreliable.
Petrol-powered motorbikes have made a comeback, supported by a growing black market for local biofuel.

Electricity is an uneven mix of grid-based gas, and solar and wind. Older nuclear power stations contribute. There is some community generation.
Abandoned urban and industrial land is being reclaimed by nature, which has boosted biodiversity.

Self-Preservation Society

Public transport

MEDIUM-LOW

Car use

MEDIUM-HIGH

Active travel

MEDIUM-LOW

Data use

LOW

Personal income

+1.3% p.a.

Resilience

MEDIUM-LOW

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Connected Society (2050s): Overview

If recycled, a solar panel made in 2004 could supply enough silicon for eight equivalent panels today due to improvements in material efficiency. Source.

Technology has enabled an apparent ‘decoupling’ of GDP from emissions and resource demand. Living standards have increased, although inequalities remain.
Products and services have become more sustainable, thanks to AI-driven efficiencies and the development of a circular economy. This, though, is encouraging further consumption.
AI is commonplace in government and credited both for effective responses to extreme weather and economic growth. Devolution to ever-denser ‘city regions’ has encouraged more local democratic engagement, but this is uneven.
Inequality persists between regions. In particular, urban areas–seen as being more sustainable–have benefitted from investment at the expense of the countryside.

Connected Society

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Connected Society (2050s): Mobility and infrastructure

Indicators

Digital connectivity is excellent almost everywhere, with some remote rural exceptions. People enjoy working and socialising face-to-face, regardless.
In the countryside towns and villages are forging stronger social, cultural and economic ties, and seek to attract migrants to fill labour market gaps.
A rapid transit e-bus network connects the most populated parts of Wales, supplemented by cheaper and more regular local trains and trams, hirable CAVs at stations, and good cross-modal integration.
Most people forego short car trips and domestic flights in favour of public transport. Zero-carbon flights are available but expensive.

Efficient renewable energy is provided by a range of domestic suppliers. Many homes have installed solar and heat pumps, with government support. New homes produce more energy than they use.
Grazing land is being rewilded as people eat less meat.

Connected Society

Public transport

HIGH

Car use

MEDIUM

Active travel

MEDIUM-HIGH

Data use

MEDIUM-HIGH

Personal income

+1.8% p.a.

Resilience

HIGH

This represents a possible future. It is not a statement of government or public policy.

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Technical annex

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Note on the scenarios

The indicators

The indicators for each scenario were derived from those in the GO Science report. We have adjusted labels to emphasise the social and individual experience of the scenarios:

‘Public transport’ here is originally labelled as ‘shared travel’;
‘Car use’ is originally labelled as ‘road traffic’;
The ‘Active travel’ label is unchanged. It can also be taken as a proxy for well-being.
‘Data use’ draws primarily on the ‘Data processing demands’ label. We also referenced ‘CAV use’ in the GO Science report as a proxy for data intensity;
‘Personal income’ is taken from the GO Science analysis of ‘Household Disposable Income’. We have not re-modelled this for Wales.
‘Resilience’ is a portmanteau label based on a number of labels in the original indicating adaptation and social response to climate change: ‘Insulation’; ‘Circular Economy’; ‘Food Imports’ (inverted); and level of Plant-based diets.

These scenarios were adapted from a set originally developed in 2023 by the Government Office for Science, intended to help UK policy-makers think about the challenges of climate change in the UK.

We have revised them for the Welsh context, and focussed on existing material within the scenarios about mobility and infrastructure. Our changes were informed by previous project work in Wales, supported by a new scan to understand the likely future climate of Wales and its impacts.

We also adapted the scenario narratives slightly to align them more closely with Jim Dator’s four scenario archetypes: growth, discipline, collapse and transformation. This was to make the four scenarios more distinctively different.

‘Steady Society’ was renamed from ‘Slow Lane Society’ to remove possible negative connotations. ‘Connected Society’ was because ‘Metropolitan Society’ did not reflect the spatial nature of Wales and its communities.

Technical note

Government Office for Science (2023). Net zero society: scenarios and pathways.

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