Martellus, 1490

1507

What is wrong with this picture?

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• Everything goes somewhere.
• Everything is connected.

(You cannot do just one thing.)

• Nature is an independent power, and does not negotiate.

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Start by remembering the basic “house rules” for Planet Earth…

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“You don’t know what you’ve got� ‘till its gone.”

• 2-4 deg (Celsius) increase in average temperature is now unavoidable, compared to one degree warming to date.

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• Ecosystem impacts may occur in a less continuous way (e.g. Greenland ice melt, permafrost methane release, sudden and rapid degeneration of regional forest and agricultural ecosystems, etc).

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• Globally, the economic costs will mount into the trillions, and may in fact be incalculable.

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Global warming is here now, and small and rural Ontario communities are bearing the brunt.

Drought, Flamborough, 2016

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Wildfire,

Key Harbour, 2018

Global warming is here now, and small and rural Ontario communities are bearing the brunt.

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Floods, Minden, 2017

Global warming is here now and small and rural Ontario communities are bearing the brunt.

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Global warming is here now and small and rural Ontario communities are bearing the brunt.

Extreme storms,

Dunrobin, 2018

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What would a sustainable energy future look like?

• Runs on renewable energy flows
• Highly efficient matching of energy sources to end use needs, both in quantity and quality
• Doesn’t generate net growth in greenhouse gas emissions
• Circular flow of materials -- no toxic waste, no radioactive waste, in fact no waste at all
• Resilient and diverse, failures are safe, even productive. Does not generate ecocidal risk.
• Reinforces cultural values (e.g., equity, accessibility, self-determination, community autonomy, “conviviality”)

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Low Carbon Energy Futures – These five things must happen:

• Efficiency, efficiency and then more efficiency
• Electricity’s role expands into transportation and heat
• Decarbonize the electricity supply
• Sustainable production of biofuels
• Innovation to reduce fuel and electricity in provision of human needs, amenities

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Some wicked complications:

• Climate change and its deleterious impacts will increase throughout this century.
• The time frame for the transition is short compared to the inertia in the current energy system.
• Nature is not our enemy but an independent power with which there can be no negotiation.
• The geography of the transition to a low carbon future is a composite of transitions in about ten big sub-systems, which in many cases have little else in common except they include fossil fuel production and consumption.

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Slide 16

5/18/2024

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�Fuel & �electricity �markets

AMENITIES��Comfort, nourishment, health & hygiene, safety and security, knowledge, happiness, self-realization

AMENITIES��Comfort, nourishment, health & hygiene, safety and security, knowledge, happiness, self-realization

Energy Services��Light, information processing�Heat (low, med, & high temp)�Mechanical power� (stationary & mobile)

The tail:

$180 billion

The dog:

$1.8 trillion

Technologies for providing amenity determine demand for energy services.

Demand for fuel & electricity driven by technology efficiency and other attributes of the service demand.

Innovation

Some good news and opportunities:

• The technology is “available”
• Low carbon solutions yield co-benefits that are often of greater value to stakeholders than climate mitigation
• Building out a low carbon future will require a very large, skilled work force
• Infrastructure renewal presents an historic opportunity to implement resilient, low carbon solutions

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Key considerations:

• Transition to low carbon will take place simultaneously with other disruptive and far-reaching transitions, some helpful, some not.
• Capital intensity presents a challenge to policy and business models, but not the same thing as expensive.
• Innovation in financing and business strategies necessary to remove “first cost” barrier, and to resolve split incentives.
• Education and climate literacy will speed the transition.
• Low carbon solutions vary according to local circumstances; local agency and capacity, including in city halls, are essential.
• Human and institutional capacity development are constraints on the accelerated deployment of otherwise ready solutions.

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Slide 19

5/18/2024

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The cost of solutions has been declining dramatically.

Source: “World Energy Investment Report 2023”, IEA, Paris, 2023.

“Clean energy costs edged higher in 2022, but pressures are easing in 2023 and mature clean technologies remain very cost-competitive in today’s fuel-price environment.”

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As reported by the IEA in their Net Zero Roadmap update this summer, accelerating exponential growth rates continue to outrun forecasts made only two years ago…

Source: “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 C Goal in Reach: 2023 Update”, IEA, Paris, 2023.

The solutions are growing faster than the problems

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More money now being invested in clean economy than in the legacy economy, and the gap will widen throughout this decade.

Source: “World Energy Investment Report 2023”, IEA, Paris, 2023.

Investment in the sustainability transition is driving the forward momentum in the world economy, as illustrated by the energy investment figures in this year’s World Investment Report.

International Energy Agency scenarios: STEPS – Stated Policies. APS – Announced Pledges. NZE – net Zero Emissions by 2050.

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• 22.5 million personal vehicles in Canada split about evenly between cars and light trucks (pickups, SUV’s, vans).
• 5.9 commercial vehicles – 3.6 million light trucks, 1.8 million medium trucks, and 500,000 heavy trucks.
• Canadian households, businesses and governments spend over $210 billion per year on the road transportation system:
• Vehicle purchases: $72 billion/yr
• Fuel: $41 billion/yr
• Parking: $35 billion/yr
• Infrastructure: $30 billion/yr
• Vehicle maintenance: $25 billion/yr
• Insurance: $10 billion/yr

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May 2, 2024

Greenhouse gas emissions from the tailpipes of Canada’s 28 million cars and trucks totalled 120 million tonnes of CO2e in 2021 -- 18% of Canada’s total emissions (2021 inventory).

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The road transportation system is 10% of GDP and the other 90% depends on it.

In the 5% of the year when their cars are not parked, Canadians drive more than 400 billion kilometres – over 2,500 times the distance to the Sun.��To decarbonize road transportation in Canada by 2050, it will take up to $666 billion in capital investments. With status quo policies and investment levels, we will invest $59 billion. The difference is what we call the capex gap.

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The road transportation decarbonization capex gap:

$607 billion

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May 2, 2024

At the current market share for personal electric vehicles, the cumulative incremental investment would reach $48 billion by 2050, and the stock would exceed 3 million EV’s.��In our decarbonization scenario, the incremental investment reaches $385 billion by 2050, and there would be 28 million EV’s, representing 97% of the personal vehicle stock.

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May 2, 2024

Households are shouldering 60% the capital costs of electrifying transportation in Canada. It will take an 8-fold increase to decarbonize personal vehicles by 2050, even if the price premium declines by 5% every year.

Annual capital expenditures (EV premium only) to electrify commercial vehicles grow to $5 billion by the mid 2030’s in our decarbonization scenario, with EV share of medium and heavy truck sales reaching 100% by 2035. Even so, the long service lives of trucks make achieving a zero-carbon fleet by 2050 impossible without accelerated retirement of combustion vehicles.

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April 22, 2024

Commercial vehicles have lagged personal vehicles in the transition to electric drive, but as large fleet owners commit to going electric, market share should accelerate.

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In our baseline, there are 312,000 commercial EV’s by 2050, mostly light trucks.

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In our decarbonization scenario, the incremental investment reaches $218 billion by 2050, and there would be 9 million electric trucks, representing 85%, 80% and 70% of the light, medium and heavy truck segments, respectively.

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April 22, 2024

In our baseline scenario, with its relatively low rate of vehicle electrification, the public charging network grows from its current level of 27,000 chargers to 100,000 by 2050, with annual capex peaking at $108 million in 2035.

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In our decarbonization scenario, investment peaks at $1.4 billion in 2035, and by 2050 there are 563,000 public chargers, one for every 50 EV’s.

At 23:1, the decarbonization capex ratio for public charging in Canada threatens the entire transition. It is a relatively small contribution to the total cost of electrifying the road transportation sector – about 5% -- but the pace at which electrification will proceed is critically dependent on the public charging network staying “ahead of the curve”.

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April 22, 2024

The good news! The decarbonization scenario of road transportation has a positive economic benefit, even when narrowly defined to include only the direct energy, carbon, and maintenance costs.

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April 22, 2024

The buildings decarbonization gap: Buildings account for 18% of Canada’s 670 million tonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gas emissions (2021), split about evenly between residential and commercial buildings.

• This includes 87 Mt of direct emissions from the building chimneys and 30 Mt of indirect emissions at the power plants that generate the electricity used in the buildings.
• Electricity provides 43% of building energy consumption in Canada but accounts for only 25% of building GHG emissions because on average Canadian electricity production emits less than half as much GHG per unit of energy as natural gas, the principal fossil fuel burned in Canadian buildings.

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April 22, 2024

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April 22, 2024

The residential buildings decarbonization investment gap: $29.5 billion per year

• Using today’s technologies and business practices for building retrofits, the capital cost to decarbonize Canada’s 9 million residential buildings is in the range of $800 billion. To complete the job by 2050 at these costs would require investments of $32 billion per year, assuming that we stop adding to the challenge by building new housing that is heated with fossil fuels. This compares with the overall level of annual investment in the existing residential building stock of $60 billion per year.
• We estimate that the current rate of retrofits resulting in fully decarbonized residential buildings is $2.5 billion per year.

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April 22, 2024

The commercial buildings decarbonization investment gap:

• The capital cost to decarbonize Canada’s current stock of commercial and institutional buildings is on the order of $300 billion. To complete the job by 2050 at these costs would require investments averaging of $12 billion per year, assuming that we stop adding to the challenge by building new fossil-heated buildings.
• Annual investment in the existing stock of non-residential buildings in Canada is about $20 billion per year, but we do not know what portion of this is aligned with building decarbonization.

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April 22, 2024

Convert space and water heating to heat pumps, and retrofit the homes for higher efficiency and greater comfort. Convert the gas home to heat pump.

Reduce heat requirement to 75 GJ per house

Heat pumps with 260% seasonal efficiency

20% improvement in lights and appliance efficiency

Electric vehicles at 20 kWh/100 km

Solar on two homes each generate 4,000 kWh/year

Total for home grid electricity use: 235 GJ, or 65.330 kwh.

Total emissions practically eliminated.

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The active engagement of local government is essential to any effective response to climate change.

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Thinking locally, acting globally: the case for small community action on climate change

• Global warming is affecting all communities, perhaps especially small communities, and we all share responsibility for tackling the problem at its source: greenhouse gas emissions.
• Cities have long been recognized as necessary partners in any effective response to global warming, but small and rural communities also have a unique and critically important role to play.
• Local actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions almost always reinforce community aspirations and objectives for social and economic development.
• There is no “one size fits all” for small community action on climate change – local circumstances define the opportunities for reducing emissions while growing and improving your community.

Whether they are aware of it or not, local government investments, operations, bylaws and policies are largely responsible for the level and pattern of greenhouse gas emissions in the community:

• Local roads, including traffic management and parking
• Transportation other than roads, including public transit, cycling, pedestrian infrastructure
• Recreational and cultural facilities, community heritage, park lands and green space
• Policing, the safety and protection of people and property
• Social housing and related services
• Business and economic development
• Planning, operation, ownership and policy direction of public transit
• The pattern of public and private investment in the community

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And the list continues...

• The determination of urban form through zoning and land use regulation
• Regulation and planning of land use and the built environment, including residential and commercial buildings, site layout
• Storm sewers and drainage infrastructure
• Aspects of environmental and public health and safety
• Solid waste management, recycling and landfill facilities
• Water supply and sewage treatment infrastructure
• Their own use of fuels and electricity
• Ownership, control or influence over utilities, hospitals, schools, community centres, utilities

The point?�Local governance = climate action planning

• Municipal communities and their governments are already implementing the carbon future our grandchildren will inherit.

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• Impacting the future level of greenhouse gas emissions is not a choice for local government; it is already implicit in everything they do. The choice is whether to exercise that power and influence to build a low carbon community.

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5/18/2024

Local government planning and spending decisions made today have consequences that last for decades, even centuries…

In small and rural communities, lowering greenhouse gas emissions also helps achieve social and economic aspirations.

The collateral benefits of climate change mitigation are of greater immediate value to small communities than the GHG reductions achieved. These cobenefits are the key to engagement and�successful implementation.

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• Local economic stimulus.
• Energy expenditures weaken local economies. Annual fuel and electricity spending by households and businesses in a typical Ontario community exceeds $3,500 per capita. For a town of 15,000, that adds up to more than $50 million per year, over $1 million every week, most of which leaves the community and much of which leaves the province or the country.
• This drain on the local economy can be reduced through measures for improving the efficiency of fuel and electricity use or for producing fuel and electricity with local resources.
• When the savings are respent in the community, the economic benefits multiply.
• Some measures, particularly energy retrofits for residential and commercial buildings, require local investments that can be a significant source of local job creation.

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• Air QuaIity addlity Improvement, public health benefit
• Financial Savings
• Technological advancement
• Strategic Partnerships
• Higher performance buildings
• Global competitiveness
• Facilitates integration of sustainable community development strategies.

Local governments in Ontario do not have a mandate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nor has there much senior government support (this may be changing) for local government climate change mitigation, so

WHY DO THEY DO IT ANYWAY?

Implementing local action plans:

Think locally, act globally.

Collaborate. Leverage.

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ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

Selected Climate Action Plans

EFFICIENCY, LOCAL GENERATION

Gasoline

Natural gas

Grid electricity

Business as Planned

Net Zero by 2040

Efficiency gains

Behind the meter

Keep calm, use energy efficiently, and build the new, renewable grid.

• Electricity consumption in Ontario is down 12% over the past 20 years, even with population growth of 23% and economic growth of 40%.
• Electrification of heat and transport, when coupled with efficiency, can hold electricity consumption growth to low levels.
• There is no cause for panic; we have time to get this right. Our goal should be to electrify while holding total electricity consumption growth to well under 1% per year.

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THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT?

1976

Gap: 38,000 MW. 24 nuclear reactors and 18 coal-fired generators, all to be online by the early 2000’s. None ever built. To this day the 38 GW “gap” is larger than the peak demand for electricity in Ontario. Proposal led to the Porter Royal Commission.

1989

Gap: 9,700 MW by 2005 and 21,300 MW by 2014. Environmental assessment commenced but was cancelled when Hydro withdrew the plan in 1991. The gap never materialized and none of the plants were built.

2005-2007

Gap: 163 TWh by 2010; 169 TWh by 2015; 177 TWh by 2020. Gas plant approvals expedited. No gap materialized. Demand hovering around 150 TWh 15 years later.

Is nuclear power aligned with sustainability?

• Low or no greenhouse gas emissions?
• Renewable?
• Efficient?
• Circular and waste free?
• Safe fail, resilient, diverse, free of ecocidal and geopolitical risk?
• Aligned with cultural values?

Martellus, 1490

1507