CHANGING BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LINKED TO RAPID ARCTIC CHANGE

Joaquim I. Goes, Morgan Lehman Helga do R. Gomes, and Jinghui Wu

Trends in salinity seen in Argo float records starting from 2004

Schematic showing major current systems and lobster demography under (a) present GrIS and (b) future GrIS conditions. Also shown are hypothesized northward migration of lobster larval settlement habitats

H2: Changes in the fractional contribution of the Labrador Current and Gulf Stream will increase temperature and stratification, as well as alter regional primary and secondary productivity, along the Scotian Shelf and in the Gulf of Maine.

H1: The ongoing and projected loss of Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet will enhance the northward migration of warmer, oligotrophic Gulf Stream waters into coastal ecosystems of Atlantic Canada and New England.

KEY HYPOTHESES

5

Cryosphere Processes

(Patrick, Marco, LDEO)

Sea-ice-Atmosphere-Ocean Biogeochemical Modeling

(Eric, Xiaobiao, Mike FSU)

Biological Oceanographic Processes (Joaquim, Helga, LDEO)

Lobster Larvae Modeling

(Rick, Damian, Andrew, Kathy, Umaine, GMRI)

Interaction with physical and biological processes and model Evaluation

Interaction Regarding Lobster Impact, Stakeholder Impacts and Needs

Bio- and Socioeconomic Modeling

(Josh, Christine, Heather, Kanae, GMRI)

Connections with other teams

Education and Outreach

(All – Umaine)

ECOMON HYDROGRAPHIC PLANKTON DATA (1997-2021)

Bottom seawater temperatures in the Gulf of Maine

Bottom seawater salinity trends in the Gulf of Maine

Decapod biomass trends in the Gulf of Maine

Calanus finmarchicus biomass trends in the Gulf of Maine

Phytoplankton biomass trends in the Gulf of Maine

Nutrient trends in the Gulf of Maine

Schematic showing major current systems and lobster demography under (a) present GrIS and (b) future GrIS conditions. Also shown are hypothesized northward migration of lobster larval settlement habitats

Nutrient data from the Canda DFO - Atlantic Zone Marine Program (AZMP)

Trends in nutrients flowing across Browns Bank

Trends in salinity in seawater flowing across Browns Bank

Trends in temperature of seawater flowing across Browns Bank

Nutrient data from the Canda DFO - Atlantic Zone Marine Program (AZMP)

Satellite ocean color datasets showing increase in spatial extent and intensity of phytoplankton biomass in the Labrador Sea  

Map indicating the sampling of the AR7W transect (red dots) and the mean May surface currents from OSCAR (black shading). The coastal reference point is denoted as a cyan diamond. Distances from Greenland (in km) denote the gridded section on which AR7W observations are interpolated.

FIG. 8. Vertical distribution of nutrient anomalies for (a-c) 2004-2006 and (d-f) 2014-2016. Anomaly concentrations are shown for silicate (top), nitrate (middle) and phosphate (bottom). Only AR7W observations from cruises that occurred during May-June are used. Black line denotes the MLD derived from profiles of potential density (using a density threshold of 0.03kgm^-3 relative to the surface).

Labrador Sea Data Points

Labrador Nutrient dataset (1972-2018)

Trends in nutrients from 1972-2018

Nutrient data from the Canda DFO - Atlantic Zone Marine Program (AZMP)

Nutrient data at long-time series station 27

Schematic showing major current systems and lobster demography under (a) present GrIS and (b) future GrIS conditions. Also shown are hypothesized northward migration of lobster larval settlement habitats

Global - HYCOM derived monthly fields snapshots of SST and surface currents from 2000 to 2020  

Global - HYCOM derived monthly fields of SST and surface currents from 2000 to 2002 (left panel) and from 2018- 2020 (right panel) 

FUTURE STEPS

Use in-situ datasets along with coupled sea-ice circulation-biogeochemical model outputs to gain insights into the drivers of nutrients-NPP-zooplankton and Lobster Landings along the US East Coast

THANK YOU