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UC Institute of Transportation Studies

The University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS) is a network of faculty, research and administrative staff, and students dedicated to advancing the state of the art in transportation engineering, planning, and policy for the people of California. Established by the Legislature in 1947, UC ITS has branches at UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Irvine, and UCLA.

https://www.ucits.org/

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Presentation Outline

Background
Methodology
Scenario Worlds
Policy Options by Timeframe
Policy Strategy Vision
Research Recommendations
Proposed Next Steps and Timeline

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Background

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COVID-19 Crisis

Profound changes to society, including transportation
Further exposed social equity impacts
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns
Currently witnessing another surge in the U.S.

11.2 million cases
24,700+ deaths

Vaccine distribution beginning but questions remain on timeline

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Impacts on Public Transit and Shared Mobility

Dramatic decreases in public transit ridership and revenues
Drops in customers for most shared mobility modes
Exposure and spreading concerns
New sanitation and cleaning approaches
Reduced services and frayed operations
Changes to business structures
Telework and open street impacts on mode split

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Focal Question and Timeframes

What are sustainable and equitable, short- and longer- term public transit and shared mobility policies for all communities under different scenarios in the context of the global pandemic and recovery?

Within 12 months
One to three years
Four to six years

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Methodology

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Delphi Approach Across Four Phases

	Phase One	Phase Two	Phase Three	Phase Four
Timeframe	June/July 2020	July/August 2020	September 2020	September 2020
Committee	Steering	Scenario	Policy	Steering
Experts	Seven	18	10	Eight
# of Sessions	Four	Four	Two	One
# of Hours Total	Seven hours	Eight hours	Six hours	Two hours

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Goals of Each Committee

	Phase One	Phase Two	Phase Three	Phase Four
Committee	Steering	Scenario	Policy	Steering
Goals	· Develop a focal question · Define scenario timeframes · Identify driving forces · Identify the two most critical driving forces per timeframe	· Refine focal question and timeframes · Identify and build two scenario worlds · Develop preliminary policies, research needs, and signposts	· Refine scenario world descriptions · Refine policies, research needs, and signposts	· Review all material and finalize the exercise

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36 Experts Across U.S. and Sectors

Public transit

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)

Academia and research institutes

Transportation consulting and futurists

Local, state, and federal governmental agencies

Private transportation, sustainable design, and shared mobility companies

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Steering Committee

Name	Organization	Organization Type
Amy Ford	ITS America	NGO
Brian Taylor	University of California, Los Angeles	Academia
Dan Sperling	University of California, Davis	Academia
Nathaniel Ford	Jacksonville Transportation Authority	Public Transit
Neil Pedersen	Transportation Research Board	NGO
Sharon Feigon	Shared-Use Mobility Center	NGO
Tim Papandreou	Emerging Transport Advisors	Consulting
Ysela Llort	Renaissance Planning	Consulting

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Scenario Committee

Name	Organization	Organization Type
Andrea d'Amato	Massachusetts Department of Transportation	State Government
Andrew Bata	International Association of Public Transport	NGO
Arjan van Andel	PTV	Consulting
Carol Cooper	King County Metro	Public Transit
Chris Pangilinan	Uber	Private Company
Devin Liddell	Teague	Consulting
Fran Inman	California Transportation Commission	State Government
Gerry Tierney	Perkins + Will	Consulting
Jameson Auten	Kansas City Area Transportation Authority	Public Transit

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Scenario Committee (cont’d)

Name	Organization	Organization Type
Jill Hough	North Dakota State University	Academia
Karina Ricks	City of Pittsburgh	City Government
Lina Fedirko	ClimateWorks	NGO
Lori Pepper	California State Transportation Agency	State Government
Michael Berube	U.S. Department of Energy	Federal Government
Michael Pimentel	California Transit Association	NGO
Rachel Zack	Remix	Private Company
Randy Iwasaki	Contra Costa Transportation Authority	Local Government
Tilly Chang	San Francisco County Transportation Authority	Local Government

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Policy Committee

Name	Organization	Organization Type
Andrei Greenwalt	Via	Private Company
Dorval Carter	Chicago Transit Authority	Public Transit
Emily Warren	Nelson\Nygaard	Consulting
Hani Mahmassani	Northwestern University	Academia
Kari Watkins	Georgia Institute of Technology	Academia
Shin-pei Tsay	Uber	Private Company
Stephanie Wiggins	Metrolink	Public Transit
Steve Cliff	California Air Resources Board	State Government
Tamika Butler	Self-Consultant	Consulting
Vincent Valdes	Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission	Regional Government

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Scenario Worlds

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Finalized Scenario Worlds and Driving Vectors

Timeframe	Scenario World	Optimism Level	Driving Vectors
Within 12 Months	Shrink to Essential Services	Less Optimistic	Depressed Public Transit Demand New Funding Sources
Within 12 Months	Restore Services	More Optimistic	Pre-COVID-19 Public Transit Demand New Funding Sources
One to Three Years	Downward Spiral	Less Optimistic	Lack of Political Will to Fund and Support Change Slow Economic Recovery
One to Three Years	Change the Conversation	More Optimistic	Political Will to Fund and Support Change Slow Economic Recovery
Four to Six Years	Unguided Incremental Change	Less Optimistic	Sustainability Incrementalism Evolved Business Models
Four to Six Years	Business and Policy Evolution	More Optimistic	Sustainability Evolution New Business Models

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Within 12 Months - Scenarios

Shrink to Essential Services

Restore Services

Doomsday

Lack of Leadership

New Funding Sources

No Additional Funding Sources

Pre-COVID-19 Public Transit Demand

Depressed Public Transit Demand

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One to Three Years - Scenarios

Change the Conver- sation

Reimagined Horizons

Downward Spiral

A Missed Opportunity

Political Will to Fund and Support Change

Lack of Political Will to Fund and Support Change

Robust Economic Recovery

Slow Economic Recovery

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Four to Six Years - Scenarios

Unguided Innovation

Business and Policy Evolution

Unguided Incremental Change

Coordinated Incremental Change

New Business Models

Evolved Business Models

Sustainability Evolution

Sustainability Incrementalism

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Policy Themes by Timeframe

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Within 12 Months - Declare a State of Emergency

Integrate public health goals into transportation
Refocus attention on customer experience
Restore trust in public transit system use
Build public-private partnerships and new funding structures
Address barriers to regulatory and funding flexibility
Construct coalitions and convene key organizations to combat crisis

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One to Three Years – Emphasize Systemic Change

Enact new funding and pricing mechanisms
Employ a customer-centric approach to transportation services
Create new public transit business structures
Engage with employers throughout recovery (e.g., coordinate on telework)
Integrate an environmental and social equity lens
Integrate transportation into non-transportation legislation (e.g., housing)

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Four to Six Years – Build a Mobility Ecosystem Around Public Transit

Create a connected, shared mobility ecosystem, complementing public transit
Deploy fare payment technology, subsidies/incentives, and MOD and MaaS platforms (e.g., mobility wallets)
Emphasize EV technology and social equity-based programs to reduce GHG emissions and localized pollution
Address labor concerns with AVs
Augment resources to retain, retrain, and restructure public transit and shared mobility workforce

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Policy Strategies

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Policy Strategy Vision

Key Public Transit Actions

Innovation and Technology

Contactless payment, partnerships/new business models, pilot projects, agency-operated MOD, microtransit, micromobility

Planning and Operations

Resource efficiency, access and social equity, funding stabilization, infrastructure

Workforce

Essential employees, training programs, agency restructuring, retention

Customer Focus

People-oriented services, essential workers, customer engagement, multi-modality

Broader Cross-Cutting Policies

Immediate Policies Across Actors

State of emergency, asset repurposing, land-use space grabs, partnership development, social equity, telework impacts

Federal Reauthorization

Public transit funding, holistic mobility vision, regulatory and funding flexibility, new business models

Alignment of Societal Objectives

Targeted and scaled services, complementary modal ecosystem, auto reduction, metrics and measures

Finance and Subsidies

Fare subsidies, monetary and infrastructure remedies for marginalized communities, alternative funding structures

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Research Recommendations

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Multimodal Research Needs

Travel behavior resulting from work-from-home and telework
Changes to TDM/employer actions
Racial and society equity issues
Barriers to multimodal, cultural change
New data standards and metrics
Behavioral changes in e-commerce
Regulatory inconsistencies across governance levels
Opportunities to remove regulatory restrictions

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Public Transit and Shared Mobility Research Needs

Scenario modeling for public transit and shared mobility
Sliding scales of federal requirements for public transit funding (revisiting 80/20 split)
Funding mechanisms for public transit
Social equity, incentives, subsidies
Opportunities to build affordable housing in public transit rich places
Innovation and technology through policy, partnerships, new business models, pilot programs and evaluation
Impacts of telework
Mechanisms for successful P3s between public transit and private shared mobility operators

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Proposed Next Steps

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Proposed Next Steps and Timeline

Convene stakeholders in TRB and UC ITS jointly sponsored workshops to develop strategic actions in partnership with FTA and APTA -- next 12 months

Form committees to develop strategic white papers focused on key policy action strategies -- next 12 months

Develop supportive research agenda -- up to 1 to 2 years

Develop outreach and communications plan, e.g., briefings for FTA, APTA, CTA, AASHTO, NACTO, etc., and key legislative groups -- up to 1 to 2 years

Coordinate with APTA in its role in seeking funding and regulatory reform on behalf of public transit industry -- up to 1 to 2 years

Seek funding from appropriate sponsors -- up to 1 to 2 years

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Policy Brief & Report

https://www.ucits.org/research-project/2021-58/

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�Co-Authors:��Susan Shaheen, Director, �CA RIMI, UC ITS�Professor and �Co-Director, TSRC, UC Berkeley �sshaheen@ucits.org��Stephen Wong, PhD�CA RIMI, UC ITS�stephen.wong@berkeley.edu�

Thank You!

UC ITS, SB1 Funding
TRB’s Executive Committee
ClimateWorks
Steering Committee Members
Scenario Planning Committee Members
Policy Committee Members
UC staff team: Laura Podolsky, Natalie Ruiz, Jacquelyn Broader
UC Berkeley PhD Students: Alexandra Pan, Aqshems Nichols,

and Emma Lucken