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Project One�Potential Factors Affecting California Beef Production

BETUL AKBAS

LORI BRADSHAW

CELESTEE WILLIAMS

ELIZABETH DWORKIN

PRIYADHARSINI DURAI ARASAN

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Executive Summary

Our topic began as an exploration of the effects of climate change. Because we have group members with experience in the industry, we chose to explore the subject by relating it to the cattle industry. We analyzed data on annual beef production compared to rainfall, temperature, and wheat production (as representative of food source for the cattle) in California over a period between 2000 and 2020.

SUMMARIZATION BY LORI BRADSHAW

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Data Source

PROJECT ONE

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Agenda

Key Questions

Per Question: Graphics

Per Question: Analysis

Summary Analysis

PROJECT ONE

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Components Influencing California's Beef Output

  1. Which counties in California have the most beef cattle?
  2. Does temperature impact beef production?
  3. Does precipitation impact beef production?
  4. Does california wheat production impact beef production in CA?

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PROJECT ONE

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Visualization of Top Counties for Beef Production

PRODUCED BY LORI BRADSHAW

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Where in CA are beef cattle produced?

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CA Regional Share of Beef Production

PRODUCED BY LORI BRADSHAW

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Where in CA are beef cattle produced?

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How does the location of the cattle in California relate to potential effects of climate change?

  1. More temperate than northern and southern regions
    1. Temperature extremes could reduce production due to stress on cattle
    2. High and/or low temperatures would reduce growing season, affecting food availability

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  • Large open areas for grazing and producing food
    • Increased rainfall creates flooding, risking livestock and food supply
    • Decreased rainfall causes droughts, reducing food supply

Central portion of the state accounts for 75% of the cattle in the state

ANALYSIS BY LORI BRADSHAW

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Temperature and Beef Production (2000-2020)

PRODUCED BY CELESTE WILLIAMS

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Does temperature impact beef production?

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Scatter Plot with Linear Regression for Temperature and Beef Production

(2000 – 2020)

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  • R squared value for the regression: 0.14

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  • Slope of the regression line: -363.55

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  • Intercept of the regression line: 47157.65

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  • Negative linear correlation

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PRODUCED BY CELESTEE WILLIAMS

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Does temperature impact beef production?

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How do Average Monthly Temperature and Average Monthly Precipitation Impact Beef Production?

ANALYSIS BY CELESTEE WILLIAMS

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Does temperature impact beef production?

We chose to look at temperature as we thought it might have given us a broad view of the amount of plant material cattle would have to feed on. However, this data set was likely too broad in geography and too far away from direct cattle production. We found that temperature and beef production had a weak, negative relationship. Temperature in California has little to no direct impact on beef production within the state.

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PRODUCED BY Betul AkBas

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Does precipitation impact beef production?

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PRODUCED BY BETUL AKBAS

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Does precipitation impact beef production?

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Does precipitation impact beef production?

  • Precipitation is a primary source of water for both cattle consumption and irrigation of crops used as feed. Inadequate rainfall can lead to water scarcity, affecting both drinking water for cattle and the availability of water for irrigation.
  • When precipitation decreases, the beef yield is likely to decline and similarly when precipitation increases, beef production increases.
  • As the precipitation increases or decreases year by year, the response in beef production is seen slightly delayed as a result of productivity in crop.

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Beef and Wheat Production by Year (2000-2020)

PRODUCED BY ELIZABETH DWORKIN

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Does wheat production impact beef production?

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Wheat and Beef Production (2000-2020)

PRODUCED BY PRIYA DURAI ARASAN

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  • Correlation=-0.4
  • R Squared= .16

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  • Negative Linear Correlation

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  • Weak relationship

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Does wheat production in CA affect beef production in CA?

PRODUCED BY PRIYA DURAIARASAN

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Through our analysis of wheat and beef production in California, we determined that these two data sets demonstrate a weak, negative linear relationship. We have determined that wheat production within the state of California has little to no effect on beef production within the same geography.

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Final Analysis

Beef production in California is spread throughout the state, though most beef cattle operations are in the San Joaquin Valley. Of the three potential factors in beef production we analyzed - precipitation, temperature, and wheat production - the strongest r score was for wheat and beef production. These two only demonstrated a weak, negative linear relationship. If we were to approach this problem again, we might instead have looked at a single county or region and looked exclusively at known feed sources.

SUMMARIZATION BY ELIZABETH DWORKIN

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Thank you

PROJECT ONE, TEAM 5

AKBAS, BRADSHAW, DURAI ARASAN, DWORKIN, WILLIAMS

PROJECT ONE

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Presentation formatting and outline by Elizabeth Dworkin