-4
Ice sheets cover Scotland & N. Ireland
Africa: cool, dry & no Lake Victoria
1st agriculture & civilisations
Roman Warm Period
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
?
2100
4
- 97% of Alpine Glaciers disappear
- 210 mph hurricanes
- Tipping point for collapse of most tropical coral reefs
- 185 mph hurricanes
~2100 - 45 oC heatwave in the UK
- 1 m sea level rise
3000 - ~10 m
~2050 – Ice free Arctic Ocean
- 195 mph hurricanes
Shakun et al
SEA LEVEL RISE
Our planet’s temperature over the last 20,000 years & the next 80 years, given current policies
Now (2026)
Temperature Anomaly (oC)
1 in 20 chance
2300 - ~3 m
4.5 oC
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Africa dry: Hamilton & Taylor 1991, L. Victoria dry: Kendall 1969 in Hamilton & Shengji 2024, Sea Level Rise: IPCC AR6
L. Victoria flows into Nile
Original compilation graph:
Hurricanes – calculated from Poynting 2025
Heatwaves – estimated from Kay et al 2025 & current trends
Alpine Glacier’s Weise citing van Tricht et al. 2025
PPT slide created by Patrick Hamilton. I’m interested if you every find this useful for teaching etc. P.b.Hamilton@exeter.ac.uk