Network Frontiers &
open Problems
Open Issues & Future Directions
Many sorts of new network data. What do we do with it?
Open Issues & Future Directions
2. Going Deep. Real-time traces produce micro-level data that are “deep” even on small populations. How do we deal with this?
Good places for ethnographic depth.
Open Issues & Future Directions
3. Comparing Structures in the Middle. We need studies of the “middle range” that allow us to compare across networks.
Detailed issues JWM would like to see folks work on.
Open Problems
Open Problems
Edge timing has profound effects on discrete transmission dynamics
Open Problems
Edge timing has profound effects on discrete transmission dynamics
Open Problems
But we’re just now starting to understand how timing interacts with network structure & population turnover.
Required: New graph theoretic understanding of dynamic paths
Forward Reachable Sets; Authors: Benjamin Armbruster, Li Wang, Martina Morris
Open Problems
At the macro level: models that allow for real-time feedback & data updates, population dynamics, etc. It's doable now in a compartmental framework but largely ad hoc
Open Problems
Current approaches cannot solve the numbers of clusters problem unambiguously. This signals a miss-specified question.
Open Problems
Need methods that can make sense of evolving group structures. “Identity Arc” model is the right direction.
Open Problems
…likely a theory problem. “group” is the intersection of cohesion and exclusion but we don’t distinguish those with our methods.
Open Problems
003
(0)
012
(1)
102
021D
021U
021C
(2)
111D
111U
030T
030C
(3)
201
120D
120U
120C
(4)
210
(5)
300
(6)
Intransitive
Transitive
Mixed
Triads capture the essence of sociality: only with 3 do you get supra-individual characteristics:
A friend of a friend is a friend…
My partner’s partner is my rival…
A periodic table of social elements
Open Problems
The macro structure of a network is thus summarized by the distribution of triads.
Type Number of triads
---------------------------------------
1 - 003 21
---------------------------------------
2 - 012 26
3 - 102 11
4 - 021D 1
5 - 021U 5
6 - 021C 3
7 - 111D 2
8 - 111U 5
9 - 030T 3
10 - 030C 1
11 - 201 1
12 - 120D 1
13 - 120U 1
14 - 120C 1
15 - 210 1
16 - 300 1
---------------------------------------
Sum (2 - 16): 63
Combining elements gives you molecules…
Open Problems
We need to extend this work to continuous distributions of triads.
We’re close: ERGM-style simulations build random draws from the subset of possible graphs…but we have no analytic solution.
Triad constraints 🡪 macro-structural constraints
Open Problems
Parent
Parent
Child
Child
Child
Positional models are fundamentally under-developed; yet hold the greatest promise of realizing the potential of relational models to provide deep insights into social organization and behavior.
Open Problems
Example: Social Exchange in developing contexts
Open Problems
Example: Social Exchange in developing contexts
Required: probably need to include content of relation in the theory (at least valence, likely more)
Open Problems
Do we know how relations should change over time?
What is the life-history of a relation?
We have no data on the long-term dynamics of relations, outside of some bits on spouse/partner.
Open Problems
The real controversy over the Framingham studies turned on social mechanism: how do relations get “inside”?
Current models are largely passive transmission or stress-response; both seem much too simple.
Open Problems
Networks exist within an institutional context; only way to know that is to return to communities
Open Problems
Deep: Radio collar studies of people might be a bit much, but we leave clear digital traces…can we use that smartly? Safe-graph data & Covid is a good case study.
Probability:
Network Scale Up?
Aggregated Relational Data (ARD)?
Network Sampling With Memory (i.e. smart RDS?)
When do these work? For what sorts of relations? Or network Processes?
Open Problems
Ego-centric designs are the most tractable way to collect network data.
To get sociometric insights from local networks, extend k-steps.
A “network hyper-sample” is one possible solution?
Open Problems
Open Problems
Peer
Behavior
Substantively, peers and behavior co-constitute each other in a naturally endogenous and over-determined way. Notions of partialing out the causal effect of peers on behavior net of behavior on peers miss-asks the question.
We need some radical new thinking on this.
Is not equal to
Peer
Behavior
+
Peer
Behavior
Open Problems
Y
X1
X2
Want this
Weak instruments bias us toward null effects
Y
X1
X2
I
Get this
Ignore this
Open Problems
Statistical turn in networks in the 1990s🡪 has dramatically changed the landscape.
But focus on statistical modeling has turned network analysis into “just another” GLM.
That’s a thin portrait of what a network is and should be.
Article Length (estimated words)
Goodman (1974)
Padgett & McLean (2006)
Maris (1970)
Aral & Van Alstyne (2010)
Goldstone (1986)
Powell et al. (2005)
Boorman & White (1976)
DiMaggio et al. (1996)
Giordanno et al. (2002)
Estimated number of words per paper, ASR/AJS
Open Problems
Open Problems
Statistical turn in networks in the 1990s🡪 has dramatically changed the landscape.
Focus should be on what we can learn.
Open Problems
The dramatic rise of AI promises to disrupt how network analysis is done.
What do we want it to do?
THANK YOU!!