MID-TERM REVIEW: Preliminary findings

PROCARIBE+

Caribbean & North Brazil Shelf

Large Marine Ecosystems

UNDP-GEF Project

April 2026

Independent MTR consultant Jonathan Ryan

At a Glance

Overall Rating

Moderately Satisfactory

Review Period

2023 – 2026 (Midpoint)

Project Closing

Q1 2028 (ext. under review)

Components

5 Components / 9 Outcomes

Partner Network

19 GEF-eligible Countries · 9 Co-executing Partners

GEF Core Indicators

CI-2, CI-5, CI-7, CI-8, CI-11

KEY FIGURES AT MIDTERM

PROCARIBE+ — Progress Snapshot

3.3M ha

MPAs Under

Improved Management

~1.1M ha

New MPAs

underway

>59K km²

Marine Spatial

Planning + PSSA Coverage underway

90%

OCM

Operationalization

10+

CS/MSME Initiatives

Underway

4.2/5

Partner

Satisfaction

MODERATELY SATISFACTORY

PROGRESS BY THEMATIC AREA

Partner Ratings — MTR Consolidated Questionnaire

Regional Governance & OCM

4.5 / 5

Adaptive Management

4.5 / 5

Project Management (PCU)

4.4 / 5

Stakeholder Engagement

4.2 / 5

Overall Project Satisfaction

4.2 / 5

National Capacity & Policy

3.5 / 5

Sustainability Conditions

3.2 / 5

Pilot / On-Ground Actions

3.0 / 5

Blue Finance (rescoped to seagrass data)

2.5 / 5

NOTE: 'Blue Finance' rating reflects the original broad mobilization scope. Indicator was formally rescoped (Project Board) to focus on seagrass carbon stock data delivery to Panama. Outreach to other financial partners (CAF, GCF, IDB, private sector) remains an open stakeholder recommendation.

Strong (4.5+)

Good (4.0–4.4)

Moderate (3.0–3.9)

Weak (<3.0)

COMPONENT PROGRESS MATRIX

Five Components — PIR 2025 Status

C1

Regional

Governance & OCM

On Track

55%

• OCM operational: 19 countries, 9 IGOs
• 1st Steering + Exec Group meetings held
• PCMU as OCM Secretariat
• SAP WG to be established after SGM1

C2

National Capacity

& NDCs

On Track

40%

• Training: 13/19 OCM member states (68%)
• PEW NDC support: 5 countries active
• Costa Rica SOMEE TOR in development
• Gender WG recommended by OCM EG

C3

Blue Economy,

Fisheries & MSP

Mixed: MSP Off-track

38%

• 52 SGP grants (EOP target achieved)
• MSP: T&T advancing; DR/Colombia delayed
• Traceability: 36,872 MT shrimp in Honduras
• Seagrass mapping underway (Panama/PEW)

C4

Marine Data &

Knowledge Mgmt

On Track

42%

• OCM Hub: PROCARIBE+ website interim
• MDI Blueprint background data collection
• SOMEE TOR drafted
• IW:LEARN target achieved

C5

Project M&E

& Compliance

On Track

60%

• PIR 2025 completed
• 11 CEAs signed this period
• Monday.com dashboard live
• Gender marker: GEN2

GEF CORE INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Targets vs. Achievement at Q4 2025

CI-5

Marine Habitat

Under Improved Practices

440M ha (LME area)

SAP in implementation

On Track

CI-7

Cooperative

Mgmt of Shared Waters

Level 2→4 advancing

2 LMEs targeted

Advancing

CI-8

Over-exploited

Fisheries Improved

Target: 515 MT/yr

Activities in 2nd half; targets exceeded for queen conch.

Not Started

Note: CI values in thousands (000s) for chart display. CI-8 targets are entirely second-half activities.

KEY ACHIEVEMENTS TO DATE

Highlights Across the Portfolio

OCM Established

Ocean Coordination Mechanism operational with 4 working groups. Regional governance architecture functional for the first time across 20 signatories and 9 IGOs.

3.3M ha MPAs Improved

Colombia, Cuba, and Dominican Republic contributing to MPA management improvements. Cuba's Council of Ministers MPA decree (2025) is a landmark national milestone.

>59,000 km² MSP

Marine Spatial Planning advancing across Colombia, DR (with delays), T&T, Venezuela (stalled), and the Mesoamerican Reef (PSSA). DR multiscalar plan covers 150,000 km² (under review because of delays).

SGP Exceeds Targets

10+ civil society & MSME initiatives underway. Women-led projects exceed the 15% interim target. Youth participation advancing.

Traceability Advancing

Regulations for national traceability systems in 75% of participating countries. OSPESCA & CRFM both on track toward 55,900 MT end-of-project target.

PCU Rated as Asset

Partners consistently rate the Project Coordination Unit (4.4/5) and adaptive management (4.5/5) as the project's strongest delivery pillars.

FINDING R1 — BLUE FINANCE: RESCOPED & REFRAMED

From Carbon Credits to Seagrass Data — and the Remaining Outreach Gap

WHAT CHANGED: Project Board Decision

ORIGINAL INDICATOR

Enabling conditions to implement a carbon credits-based financing instrument for seagrasses AND tropical peatlands in Panama

REVISED INDICATOR (PB-APPROVED)

Enabling conditions for sustainable financing instruments toward seagrass ecosystems in Panama, including carbon stock assessments for 3 pilot sites

Justification

• Agreement between Panama Ministry of Environment and PEW to focus exclusively on seagrass ecosystems
• Carbon credits for seagrass blue carbon still in exploratory/pre-feasibility phase globally
• Financing options broadened beyond carbon credits to include other sustainable mechanisms (e.g. tourism fees, PES)
• Smithsonian Institution contracted for field verification and carbon stock assessments (Q3 2025)

WHAT REMAINS: Stakeholder Outreach Recommendation

Multiple stakeholders identified a broader gap: limited proactive outreach to development finance institutions and private capital actors beyond the Panama seagrass scope.

Recommended Actions (NOT eliminated)

Engage development finance

Use OCM Partnership Fora as structured platforms for investor-government dialogue with CAF, GCF, IDB

Accelerate seagrass data

Fast-track Smithsonian field work; ensure data turnover gives Panama government ownership for future financing

Document financing pathways

PEW is recommended to document non-credit financing mechanisms (tourism fees, PES) as replicable models by end 2026

R1 STATUS: Rescoped in scope / retained in spirit — outreach dimension is an open recommendation

FINDING R4 — ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: EVIDENCE-BASED REFRAME

The Project Is Adapting — Streamlining Can Amplify Impact

✓ PIR 2025 CONFIRMS: Robust Adaptive Management Is Already Working

Venezuela MSP

Identified contract modality conflict between UNOPS/UNDP. Active resolution underway; quarterly bilateral meetings established to unblock and/or rescope given the challenge is full implementation within remaining time.

Brazil Traceability

Recognized ProDoc gaps in Brazil engagement. PMCU direct discussions with Ministry of Fisheries did not lead to resolution; reallocation of CEA is suggested.

Dominican Republic

Administrative clearance delays flagged early. IOCARIBE deploying Rapid Assessment Methodology (RAM) to reset MSP scope and save time.

Shrimp Fishery Collapse

Suriname/Guyana seabob collapse detected early. OSPESCA/CRFM reviewing alternative fisheries (queen conch, spiny lobster); revised targets under preparation, as well as updated co-financing targets attained..

Honduras Lobster Gear

Industry disputes and equipment delays caught in Q2. Field sampling rescheduled to Apr 2026 with stakeholders re-engaged and ROV equipment in place.

Blue Finance Scope

Panama carbon credit model adjusted by Project Board to reflect MoE-PEW agreement — broadened to sustainable financing, not only carbon credits.

RECOMMENDATION: Maintain adaptive management stance — add streamlining measures to reduce partner burden

Simplify Indicator Set

Identify 12–15 'critical path' indicators from the 60+ in the monitoring matrix. Reduce duplication between monitoring matrix and PIR reporting templates.

Streamline Reporting Cycle

Consolidate partner quarterly reports into a single 2-page template with pre-populated targets, reducing admin burden while maintaining GEF compliance.

VOICES FROM THE FIELD

What Partners Are Saying

“

Strong foundations established for scaling up. Early investment in stakeholder engagement and safeguards is critical but time-intensive.

Co-execution partner

4/5

“

The PCU team is a project asset — very well organized, close to the region, and knowledgeable about actors and dynamics.

Co-execution partner

4/5

“

A project of this size and ambition is not a 3-year project. An extension to 2030 would be proportional to global Kunming-Montreal commitments.

Co-execution partner and national focal point

High

“

Things take longer than anticipated. An 8 to 12-month extension to the project closing date is recommended.

Co-execution partner

4/5

“

Ensure exit strategy and data turnover that give government ownership — especially for seagrass mapping as a gateway to blue finance.

Co-execution partner

5/5

“

Processes advance more effectively when co-designed with fishers and competent authorities from the design stage onwards.

Co-execution partner

4/5

SITE VISIT — GUATEMALA (20–22 April 2026)

• 20 April: Meeting at FUNDAECO offices . Presentation of PROCARIBE+ and the Fisheries Recovery Zone (ZRP) network initiative in the Guatemalan Caribbean.
• 21 April: Transfer to Puerto Barrios. Site visits to proposed ZRP areas: Ensenada Verde, Limonar, and Miramar.
• Community meeting at Miramar with APAST (Asociación de Pescadores Artesanales de Santo Tomás).
• Visit to Las Escobas tropical forest environmental education center in Punta Manabique Wildlife Reserve park/ecosystems services for water quality and ZRP.

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• High primary productivity confirmed at all three proposed sites — strong ecological basis for ZRP designation.
• Clear administrative governance and territorial clarity over proposed sites.
• High local ownership: APAST demonstrated strong commitment and organizational capacity.
• Excellent co-executor partnership: MAR Fund and FUNDAECO show strong operational trust, local staff capacity, and engagement with municipal and federal governments.
• Overall assessment: Sites are feasible and community buy-in is exemplary — a model for ZRP replication across the region.

FIELD FINDINGS

CORE RECOMMENDATIONS

Six Priority Actions for the Second Half

R1

Accelerate Blue Finance

Deliver seagrass carbon stock data to Panama govt. (Smithsonian, Q3 2025). Separately, use OCM as investor-government dialogue platform for proactive outreach to CAF, GCF, IDB, private sector.

R2

Secure OCM Sustainability

Continue to accelerate work program implementation to increase buy-in and support for an OCM Sustainability Strategy including diversified communication strategy in 2027. Multi-donor model; integrate with CARICOM, SICA, IOCARIBE to further leverage GEF.

R3

Strengthen National Ownership

Target 75% of OCM states with operational NICs by end 2026. Country-specific engagement strategies. Document Cuba and Guatemala's models as replicable best practice.

R4

Simplify Results Framework

Adaptive management is already working (Venezuela, Brazil, DR, shrimp). Identify critical-path indicators. Streamline reporting templates, deploy a simplified partner dashboard.

R5

Evaluate Project Extension

Formally assess 8 to 12-month extension by Q4 2026. conditional on acceleration in MSP (Outcomes 3.3), traceability (3.4), and OCM work program advancement. Align with Kunming-Montreal.

R6

Complete SOMEE & MDI Blueprint

SOMEE finalized Q4 2027; MDI Blueprint endorsed Q3 2026. Meet gender/youth data targets (≥3 SOMEE sub-sections). Leverage IOCARIBE Ocean Teacher across all participating states.

PROJECT EXTENSION — CONSIDERATIONS

Should PROCARIBE+ Extend Beyond Q2 2028?

2022

Project

Launch

Inception & setup

2024

OCM

Operational

Governance milestone

▲ NOW

2026

MTR

Completed

▲ We are here

Q2 2028

Current

Closing

Risk: under-delivery

Q2 2028/Q2 2029

Proposed

Extension

8–12 months

2030

K-M Target

Alignment

30×30 global goals

✓ CASE FOR EXTENSION

• OCM operationalized until 2025, with execution agreement delays of 12–18 months of work program implementation originally expected for Year 1–2
• Outcomes 3.2 (Blue Finance) & 3.5 (Lobster Gear) are second-half activities with tight runways
• OCM requires additional time to consolidate and anchor its sustainability model and outputs (SOMEE, SAP, MDI) and to generate long-term impact
• Alignment with 2030 Kunming-Montreal 30×30 targets would maximize strategic leverage and co-financing potential
• Multiple partners have suggested an 8 to 12-month extension
• An 8–12 month extension is low-cost relative to sunk investment and risk of under-delivering transformational outcomes

⚠ CONSIDERATIONS & CONDITIONS

• Extension must be contingent on demonstrated acceleration: identification of triggering milestones by Q4 2026 suggested
• Additional management costs and staff continuity planning would be required for the PCU for cost-neutral extension
• Risk of partner fatigue or reduced urgency if timeline relaxes without clear conditional targets
• GEF grant structures may require re-endorsement; UNDP and Steering Committee approval needed
• Opportunity cost of PCU resources that could support a successor program

RECOMMENDATION: Formally evaluate an 8 to 12-month extension by Q4 2026, conditional on demonstrated acceleration in Outcomes 3.2, 3.4, and OCM sustainability planning.

MTR RATINGS SCORECARD

UNDP/GEF Standard Evaluation Criteria

HS

Relevance

Highly Satisfactory

MS

Effectiveness — Progress to Results

Moderately Satisfactory

MS

Efficiency — Resources & Time

Moderately Satisfactory

S

Regional Governance & OCM

Satisfactory

MS

National Capacity Development

Moderately Satisfactory

MU

Blue Finance (rescoped: seagrass data)

Moderately Unsatisfactory

MU

Marine Spatial Planning

Moderately Unsatisfactory

MS

Fisheries & Conservation Outcomes

Moderately Satisfactory

ML

Sustainability of Results

Moderately Likely

S

M&E System

Satisfactory

MS

Gender Integration

Moderately Satisfactory

S

Adaptive Management

Satisfactory

OVERALL PROJECT RATING: MODERATELY SATISFACTORY

THE PATH TO 2028 (AND BEYOND)

Six Recommendations:

• R1 — Launch Blue Finance Action Plan and engage development banks
• R2 — Accelerate delivery of OCM work program and instruments by Q4 2026
• R3 — Enhance enabling conditions for NICs in ≥75% of OCM member states through outreach and replicable best practices to date
• R4 — Streamline M&E for critical-path tracking + partner-facing dashboard
• R5 — Formally evaluate 8 to 12-month extension by Q4 2026
• R6 — Complete SOMEE and MDI Blueprint on schedule

PROJECT VISION

A climate-resilient,

sustainable Blue Economy

for the Caribbean and

North Brazil Shelf

Large Marine Ecosystems

19 Countries

9 Partners

2022–2028+

UNDP-GEF PROCARIBE+ | Independent Mid-Term Review | April 2026

PROCARIBE+ PBM3. 02-03 June, 2026

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6. Acknowledges the preliminary conclusions and recommendations from the Mid-Term Review, as presented in document: 2606 02-03 ENG - PROCARIBE+ PBM3 Item 9 - PROCARIBE_MTR_Presentation initial findings, and requests the PMCU to circulate the final Mid-Term Review Report together with the PMCU management response to the Project Board once completed.

7. Acknowledges that one of the priority actions highlighted in the preliminary recommendations of the Project Mid-Term Review is to simplify the Results Framework and streamline the M&E framework for tracking progress of critical pathways, and requests the PMCU to make adjustments to the Project Results Framework for the approval of the Project Board during the intersessional period.

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www.procaribeplus.org

Proposed PBM Decisions & Recommendations

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The PROCARIBE+ Project Board:

PROCARIBE+ PBM3. 02-03 June, 2026

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6. Reconoce las conclusiones y recomendaciones preliminares de la Revisión de Medio Término, tal como se presentan en el documento: 2606 02-03 ENG - PROCARIBE+ PBM3 Item 9 - PROCARIBE_MTR_Presentation initial findings, y solicita a la PMCU que distribuya el Informe Final de la Revisión de Medio Término junto con la respuesta de la gerencia de la PMCU a la Junta del Proyecto una vez completado.

7. Reconoce que una de las acciones prioritarias destacadas en las recomendaciones preliminares de la Revisión de Medio Término del Proyecto es simplificar el Marco de Resultados y optimizar el marco de M&E para el seguimiento del progreso de las vías críticas, y solicita a la PMCU que realice ajustes al Marco de Resultados del Proyecto para la aprobación de la Junta del Proyecto durante el período entre sesiones.

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www.procaribeplus.org

Proposed PBM Decisions & Recommendations

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The PROCARIBE+ Project Board: