Michael McFaul�2026�
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Autocrats
Vs.
Democrats
End of the Cold War: A Triumph for the West
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Protestors on Berlin Wall,
Berlin, November 10, 1989
Russia, 1991
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30 Years Later,
a New Cold War with Russia
“Speaking bluntly, we are rapidly rolling into a period of a new Cold War…I am sometimes confused: is this 2016 or 1962?”
- Former Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev
“Our relationship with Russia is worse now that it has ever been,�and that includes the Cold War.”
- President Donald Trump, April 2018
2022: Cold War with Russia Became Hot
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Crimea,
February 24, 2022
“Western countries – led by the U.S. – have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us”
- CCP Chairman and PRC President
Xi Jinping, March 2023
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30 Years Later,
a New Cold War with China
“Speaking bluntly, we are rapidly rolling into a period of a new Cold War…I am sometimes confused: is this 2016 or 1962?”
Former Russian President
Dmitri Medvedev
“China is working to take down freedom all across the world.”
- Secretary of State,
Michael R. Pompeo, July 2020
Now, Cold War with Iran Is Hot too
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“A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
- US President Donald Trump
February 28, 2026
“We are in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe; they don’t want our country to remain stable,”
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian,
27 December, 2025
What Happened?
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What Happened?
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Roadmap for Today
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Causes of Great Power Competition
Similarities and Differences with the Cold War
Lessons from the Cold War
Reasons for Hope about the Future
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Roadmap for Today
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Causes of Great Power Competition
Similarities and Differences with the Cold War
Lessons from the Cold War
Reasons for Hope about the Future
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Drivers of Conflict
1. Power
2. Regimes
3. Leaders
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1. Power
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Global Power Rankings �US News World Rankings, 2024�
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2. Regimes
Deployment of National Guard in Chicago, October 2025
Xi and Putin �More Autocratic Than Their Predecessors
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Hong Kong protests,
August 13, 2019
Alexei Navalny’s funeral,
March 1, 2024
Democratic Decline in U.S.
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2025
20 Years of Decline in Global Freedom�
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Chart: 20 Years of Decline in Global Freedom
by Freedom House, 2026
Note: Countries whose scores were unchanged
are not included in this comparison.
Democratic Breakthroughs �Still Threaten Autocrats �in Russia and China
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‘Color Revolutions’ in Russia’s Neighborhood
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Serbia, 2000
Georgia, 2003
Ukraine, 2004
Russia, 2009
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The Arab Spring, 2011�(Egypt)
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Russia, 2011
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“Therefore, the author of the Aleksey Navalny project is none other than Michael McFaul.”
“…he [McFaul] started working thoroughly on making anti-Putin rallies in Moscow more creatively.”
Russia Today,
February 7, 2012
McFaul Responsible for Demonstrations
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Ukraine, 2014
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Destroying Democracy in Ukraine –
Putin’s Obsession
Milk Tea Alliance in China’s Neighborhood
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Thailand, 2020
Myanmar, 2021
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Hong Kong, 2014� (and 2019-2020)
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Xi Threatened by Democracy in Taiwan
Hoover Delegation with the President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen
Taipei, August 2022
3. Leaders
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Russia – Vladimir Putin
China – Xi Jinping
United States – Donald Trump and Joe Biden
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2008 - Georgia
Putin’s Military Interventions
2014 - Ukraine
2015 - Syria
2022 - Ukraine
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Xi’s Expansionism & Aggression
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“Three main sets of challengers—the revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea, and transnational threat organizations, particularly jihadist terrorist groups—are actively competing against the United States and our allies and partners”
U.S. National Security Strategy, 2017
“President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
January 19, 2021
Trump, 2017-2021
Biden, 2021-2025
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Trump 2.0
Roadmap for Today
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Causes of Great Power Competition
Similarities and Differences with the Cold War
Lessons from the Cold War
Reasons for Hope about the Future
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Similarities
Cold War
Today
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Differences
Cold War
Today
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Cold War
Today
Similarities
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Cold War
Today
Differences
Biggest Difference Today:
China-Russia Partnership
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Roadmap for Today
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Causes of Great Power Competition
Similarities and Differences with the Cold War
Lessons from the Cold War
Reasons for Hope about the Future
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�I. Do Not Repeat Failures
�II. Emulate Successes��III. New Challenges Require New Policies����
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Cold War Lessons
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I. Cold War Failures to Avoid
1. Threat misperceptions
McCarthyism, ‘Missile gap’, Soviet economy
2. Overreach
Vietnam, Angola, covert operations against alleged enemies
3. Embracing ‘good’ dictators
Including Apartheid South Africa, Pinochet in Chile
Marines crossing rice paddy, Vietnam, 1967.
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II. Cold War Successes to Repeat
1. Alliances
Nato, Japan, South Korea, Australia
2. American Prosperity
US vs. USSR,
West Germany vs. East Germany
South Korea vs. North Korea
3. Promoting Democracy
Including USAID, Radio Free Europe, NED
US President Ronald Reagan
Berlin, June 1987
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Cold War Successes to Replicate with China Today
Biden and Xi in San Francisco,
November 14, 2023
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Repeating some Cold War successes...
But not all...
And risks repeating some mistakes...
Is Trump Learning?
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III. New Challenges
(no Cold War parallels)
The Trump Doctrine:
Isolationism first, Unilateralism now
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Tariffs against everyone
Threatening to invade Greenland
Paris Climate Accord
World Health Organization
UNESCO
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
First term withdraws from:
Second term
Intervention in Venezuela
Iran war
Withdrawal from international organizations
People in Many Countries Now View
China More Positively Than the U.S.
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Polarization
The Disappearing Center
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“The New Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse—populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism—tend to ride together, and they are challenging the political center.”
Former U.S. Secretary of State
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In many countries, people see their fellow citizens as morally good
Biggest Threat to United States:
Not China or Russia, but Ourselves
Roadmap for Today
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Causes of Great Power Competition
Similarities and Differences with the Cold War
Lessons from the Cold War
Reasons for Hope about the Future
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MILITARY POWER
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Allies
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Conventional Power
Share of the world's military expenditures.
Not labeled:
Source: SIPRI
ECONOMIC POWER
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GDP �(current USD)�
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Source: International Monetary Fund (2025)
Russia
2.54 thousand
China
19.40 thousand
United States
30.62 thousand
8 of 10 Largest Economies are Democracies
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(GDP, current prices)
Source: International Monetary Fund (Oct 2025)
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5
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Source: 2026 Times Higher Education World University Rankings
Top 50 Universities
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Most Valuable Companies Are American
Source: CompaniesMarketcap.com,
July 2026
Will China
Keep Growing?
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transition is always hard�
IDEATIONAL POWER
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Most Think Churchill Is Still Right
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“No one pretends that democracy is perfect or
all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those others that have been tried from time to time”
- Winston Churchill
Support for Democracy Remains Strong
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Past Predictions about�American Decline and �Democracy’s Demise �Were Premature
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Inter-War Period (1930s)
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1970s
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Arc of History Bends Toward Democracy
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Source: V-Dem
Maybe Current Predictions of American Decline and Democratic Decline Are Premature Again?
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Don’t Bet Against America Yet
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Don’t Bet Against
‘Small-d’ Democrats yet �
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Zelenskyy at Stanford, 2021
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Tsikhanouskaya at Stanford, 2021
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Stanford Summer Fellows, 2022
Let’s Keep Talking
Substack: McFaul’s World
X: @McFaul
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