BEFORE THE WORKSHOP
Causal Layered Analysis�A tool to create alternative futures
What is it?
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a four-level sensemaking approach to analyse a particular topic or issue in the future.
It takes participants through four levels of analysis: the surface understanding of an issue (litany), the causes creating and sustaining the situation (systems), the different perspectives shaping it (worldview) and the underlying stories that might feed it (metaphors or myths).
Use it to
• Support the development of rich scenario narratives �
• Facilitate a multi-cultural discussion about the future
�• Understand the roots behind our assumptions
Content of this toolkit
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
Acknowledgments
Adaptation of technique�by Sohail Inayatullah
DURING THE WORKSHOP
SLIDES 2-3
A step-by-step guide for facilitators to read before the workshop. Includes an example example and facilitation tips.
Ready to be printed on A4��SLIDE 16
SLIDE 4
Ready to be printed on A1, or replicate by hand
SLIDE 5
A step-by-step guide for participants to follow the process.�Ready to be printed on A4
SLIDES 6-15
A customisable presentation to guide participants
Preview of the Causal Layered Analysis template
LITANY
SYSTEMS
WORLDVIEW
METAPHORS OR MYTHS
70 min ⏱️�10 - 12 people x group 👥
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
Causal Layered Analysis
FACILITATORS GUIDE
WORKSHOP AGENDA 70 minutes
5’ STEP 0: Introduce the exercise
10’ STEP 1: Describe the litany level
10’ STEP 2: Describe the systems level
10’ STEP 3: Describe the worldview level
10’ STEP 4: Describe the metaphor or myths level
5’ STEP 5: Prepare for plenary
20’ STEP 6: Present in plenary
2
MATERIALS NEEDED
▢ CLA Template
▢ Participants Guide
▢ Workshop Slides
▢ Pens�1 x participant
A. Introduce the goal and structure of the exercise. Remember, it’s a thinking tool used to analyse and explore the deeper layers of meaning and casualty behind a topic or issue. �
B. Introduce the issue that you will be analysing during this exercise and the reason why it was chosen (its relevance for the future, lack of understanding or other reasons). �
C. Consider of doing an icebreaker exercise prior to this workshop (add additional time).
STEP 0 | INTRODUCE THE EXERCISE
STEP 1 | DESCRIBE THE LITANY LEVEL
A. Participants start reflecting on the first layer: litany.
Litany is the official and generally accepted description of the topic or issue, the so-called surface understanding of the issue. Participants can think of events, trends, or issues largely accepted. Ask them: What is currently happening?
B. Participants write down their ideas using short and simple sentences (similar to newspaper headlines) and fill in the first layer on the template.
PLENARY | 5 min
BREAKOUT GROUP | 10 min
STEP 2 | DESCRIBE THE SYSTEMS LEVEL
BREAKOUT GROUP | 10 min
A. Participants reflect on the second layer: systems.
Systems are social, economic and political structures, actors and policies underlying and maintaining an issue. This responds to the question: why is this happening?
B. Participants write down their ideas and fill in the second layer in the template.
▢ Sticky notes�Optional
▢ Magazines�Optional
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
Causal Layered Analysis
FACILITATORS GUIDE
3
STEP 3 | DESCRIBE THE WORLDVIEW LEVEL
STEP 4 | DESCRIBE THE METAPHORS OR MYTHS LEVEL
BREAKOUT GROUP | 10 min
BREAKOUT GROUP | 10 min
A. Participants reflect on the third layer: worldview.
Worldview are deeper cultural assumptions and perspectives that enable structures and justify behaviors. �It responds to the question: what is true?
B. Participants write down their ideas and fill in the third layer in the template.
A. Participants reflect on the fourth layer: metaphor or myth.
The metaphor or myth layer corresponds to the social narratives and imagery, acting at the level of collective consciousness, usually expressed through art, stories and symbols. These are usually more difficult to express with words. It responds to the question: what are the collective symbols?
Tip: consider bringing magazines and photos for participants to use images and not only words.
B. Participants write down their ideas and fill in the fourth layer in the template.
STEP 5 | PREPARE FOR PLENARY
BREAKOUT GROUP |5’
A. Invite participants to review their answers in the template before presenting to the group.
STEP 6 | PRESENT IN PLENARY
A. Invite participants to share their analysis. Remember, there are no right or wrong answers. �
B. Thank participants for their participation and touch upon possible next steps after this workshop: What will be done with the results?
PLENARY |20’
DEFINITIONS
Causal Layered Analysis
A tool to analyse and explore the deeper layers of meaning and causality underlying a particular issue or topic
Litany
The surface understanding of an issue backed by data��Systems
The causes creating and sustaining the situation
Worldview
The different perspectives shaping it �
Metaphor or myth
Thee underlying stories that might feed it
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
Causal Layered Analysis
6
TEMPLATE | GROUP N° _ _
LITANY
SYSTEMS
WORLDVIEW
METAPHORS OR MYTHS
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
�_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
�_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
�_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
Causal Layered Analysis
PARTICIPANTS GUIDE
6
LAYER 1: LITANY
What is happening in this future? What
would you read in the news?
LAYER 2: SYSTEM
Why is this happening? What are the actors responsible for these events and conditions? What are the relationships among various actors?
LAYER 3: WORLDVIEW
What is the underlying philosophy?
What are the dominant values? What is valorised or dismissed?
LAYER 4: METAPHOR OR MYTH
What myth, story, figure of speech, song lyric, image or saying conveys the complexity of what happens in this future?
STEP 4: PREPARE FOR PLENARY�
What are the underlying layers behind your topic or issue?
A. Start thinking about this future and reflect on what is happening: what is happening?
B. Write down your ideas using short and clear sentences. Try to use newspaper headlines language.
C. Fill in the first layer of your template.
A. Reflect on the causes and actors behind this future: why is this happening? Who is responsible?
B. Write down your ideas and fill in the second layer of your template.
A. Go deeper in your analysis and think about what are the values (cultural, social, language) behind this future. What are considered positive values? And negative values?
B. Write down your ideas and fill in the third layer of your template.
A. Finally, think of a metaphor or myth that can represent what is happening in the future. You can use words or images.
B. Write down your ideas and fill in the fourth layer of your template.
A. Review your analysis before going back to plenary. Try to summarise your analysis in one-two sentences for each layer.
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
What, why and how?
70’
A group sense-making tool used to explore and analyse the deeper layers of meaning and casualty underlying a particular issue or topic.
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
Why?
What is it?
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
LITANY
What is happening?
The official and generally accepted description of the topic or issue, backed by data.
visible
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
hidden
1
SYSTEMS
Why is this happening?
Social, economic, political structures and policies underlying and maintaining the issue.
2
WORLDVIEW
What is true?
Deeper cultural assumptions and perspectives that enable structures and justify behaviors.
3
4
METAPHORS OR MYTHS
What are the collective symbols?
Social narratives and imagery, acting at the level of collective consciousness, usually expressed through art, stories and symbols
�LITANY�
What is happening?
The official and generally accepted description of the topic or issue, backed by data.
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
1
visible
hidden
�SYSTEMS�
Why is this happening?
Social, economic, political structures and policies underlying and maintaining the issue.
�
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
2
visible
hidden
�WORLDVIEW�
What is true?
Deeper cultural assumptions and perspectives that enable structures and justify behaviors.
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
3
visible
hidden
�METAPHORS OR MYTHS�
What are the collective symbols?
Social narratives and imagery, acting at the level of collective consciousness, usually expressed through art, stories and symbols
CASUAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
4
visible
hidden
PLENARY SESSION
Share with the group your analysis!
CLOSING REMARKS
Thank you!
How to download this toolkit?
�I have a Google Account and I want to save or edit this tool online, in my Google Drive:
�I want to save and edit this tool offline, on my computer
1. Go to the left corner and click on “File”�2. Hover your mouse on “Make a copy”�3. Click on “Entire presentation”�Enjoy!
1. Go to the left corner and click on “File”�2. Hover your mouse on “Download”�3. Click on your preferred file format�Enjoy!
A
B
2
1
3
2
1
3
FORESIGHT.UNGLOBALPULSE.NET | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & FUTURE THINKING TOOLS
14