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The Impact of Wargaming

Matt Caffrey

DEC

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Why Study Wargaming

  • Part of planning and budgeting
  • Gives you insights into the capabilities and dangers of wargaming
  • Gives you “the rest of the story”
  • Provides insights into how future adversaries may fight

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Why Study Wargaming

  • Part of planning and budgeting
  • Gives you insights into the capabilities and dangers of wargaming
  • Gives you “the rest of the story”
  • Provides insights into how future adversaries may fight

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Outline

  • The Origins of Wargaming
  • The Birth of Modern Wargaming
  • World War Wargaming
  • Wargaming and World Wars
  • Eclipse
  • Reinventing the wheel - sort of
  • Wargaming as a growth industry
  • Reunification?

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Themes

  • Impacts on History
  • Capabilities and Limitations
  • Value for PME / ACSC
  • Wargaming and Democracy

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In The Beginning

  • It all started with language - and toys
  • The Royal Toys
    • Egypt - India
    • Rome - China
  • Dangerous Toys -

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Reisswitz, Reisswitz & Moltke�The Origins of Modern Wargaming

  • 1811 - Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand
  • 1824 - Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle
  • 1837 - Helmuth von Moltke - a quantum leap

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World Wide Wargaming

1866

Austro-Hungarian

1872 / 1883

England

1873

Italy

1874 / 1889

France

1820 / 1875 / 1905

Russia

Secondary diffusion

Japan, Turkey, Latin America

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Coming To America

1883 - Major Livermore

1886 - US Naval War College

1900 - US Army War College

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Innovation & Decline In Germany

  • Innovation
    • Moral Factors
    • Free Wargaming
  • Decline
    • Command Influence
    • Face Time

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Birth of Modern� Civilian Wargaming

1890s

Delbrook

first duty of the new rulers

1900

Jane

why don’t you do a data book

1913

H. G. Wells

wargames for peace

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Wargaming The Great War

  • Pre-war Wargaming
    • 1905 - The wargames that shaped the world
    • 1910s - Moltke the younger and the return of rigor
    • 1914 - The wargame that didn’t change history
  • Wargaming & the Great War
    • The Peace Offensive - the limits of force on force wargaming

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Inter War Wargaming�

  • Germany - Innovation then “Blood and Mud”
  • US
    • Navy PME
      • teach how to learn
      • accelerate MTR
    • Army - learn nothing
    • Air Corps - A false dawn
  • USSR - victory through defeat

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World War II

  • Germany
    • Manstein makes his case
    • Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
    • Victory at Normandy, twice
  • Japan
    • Both Attacks on Pearl Harbor
    • Both Battles of Midway
    • Why did Japan keep on fighting

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Eclipse

Did “The Bomb” make wargames obsolete?

    • Decline in the study of war at war colleges
    • Rise of deterrence & the efficient DOD
    • Korea seen as an aberration

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Why Was Wargaming Reborn

  • The onset of the Cold War
  • Assumed credibility of computers
  • Assumed credibility of Operations Research
  • The obsolescence of war had been greatly exaggerated

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Why Was Wargaming Reborn

  • The onset of the Cold War
  • Assumed credibility of computers
  • Assumed credibility of Operations Research
  • The obsolescence of war had been greatly exaggerated

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How Was Wargaming Reborn

1950s Analysis models, Naval War College

1960s Air Force PME

1970s Training, Red Flag

1980s O-Plan development

1990s Procurement decisions, tactics development

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Wargaming The Gulf War

  • Iraqi
    • Soviet method for ground forces - a reason for the halt
    • US software for air forces - a reason they did not fight
  • US
    • Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated
    • Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast?
    • Wargamers at war - the road not taken
    • Wargames in the field
    • The US training edge

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DOD Wargaming At a Crossroads

  • More money going to wargaming
    • Relatively less expensive
    • No environmental impact
    • Secure from “overhead” observation
    • Exploits more computing power for less money
    • Credibility with Congress

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DOD Wargaming At a Crossroads

  • More money going to wargaming
    • Relatively less expensive
    • No environmental impact
    • Secure from “overhead” observation
    • Exploits more computing power for less money
    • Credibility with Congress

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DOD Wargaming At a Crossroads

  • More money going to wargaming
  • More doubts than any time since the late 40s
    • RAND’s “Base of Sand” Paper
    • HQ USAF concerns
    • “Competition” from commercial wargames

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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming

More Accessible Wargames

    • 1950s & 1960s Charles Roberts & Eric Dott
    • 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +
    • 1980s Chris Crawford, Gary Grigsby
    • 1990s 15 Billion dollar global industry

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Where Are We Now

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

Top Down

History Based

Wargames

Bottom Up

OR Based

Models

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
  • Selection
  • Cost

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
    • AF in house: first eight days of war
    • Commercial: from peace to peace

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
  • Selection
    • In house:
      • 2 Billion a year industry
      • dozens of models

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
  • Selection
    • In house:
      • 2 Billion a year industry
      • dozens of models
    • Commercial:
      • 16 Billion a year industry
        • over 1200 computer
        • over 2000 print�

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
  • Selection
  • Cost:
    • AF in house:
      • $20,000,000 (range - $1M to $200 M)
      • Days to learn and to execute

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Why Commercial Wargaming

  • Scope
  • Selection
  • Cost:
    • AF in house:
      • $20,000,000 (range - $1M to $200 M)
      • Days to learn and to execute
    • Commercial:
      • $20 (range - $9 to $79, average $49)
      • Hours to learn and to execute

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Fusion�The Future of Wargaming

  • Convergence of Hardware
    • Old world
      • military - mainframe computers
      • civilians - the kitchen table
    • New world
      • military - personal computers
      • civilians - personal computers
  • Convergence of Interfaces

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WHERE WE NEED TO GO

Top Down History Based Models

Bottoms up OR Based Models

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

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Themes

  • Impacts on History
  • Capabilities and Limitations
  • Value for PME / ACSC
  • Wargaming and Democracy

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Simulation Big Picture

  • Strategic
    • Principle: start & end year with an exercise
  • Operational
    • Principle: an exercise for each course - including leadership
  • Tactical
    • Principle: assign wargames like readings

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The Commercial Wargames Database