How Maps Influence Politics: A Case Study in Gerrymandering

By Eric Coestad

Redistricting Process

• After being delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Census will be released in April
• Reapportionment happens every decade based on migration patterns (and natural variations in birth rate)
• All states redraw boundaries for their state legislative & congressional districts
• Some states use an independent redistricting commission; others allow the state legislature to draw the map
• CA citizens commission

History

• Named after Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry who approved a congressional map designed to favor Republicans
• 2010 midterms were a “shellacking” -- Republicans took control of many state legislatures from Alabama to Wisconsin
• Allowed aggressive gerrymandering designed to favor Republicans from 2012-2022
• Republicans will also have an advantage during the next cycle
• SCOTUS Cases
• Shaw v. Reno -- Racial gerrymandering must be held to a standard of “strict scrutiny”
• Lamone v. Benisek -- Partisan gerrymandering is a political question; thus, it is non-judiciable in federal court

Goals When Drawing Legislative Maps

• Competitiveness
• Favor Democrats
• Favor Republicans
• Geographic compactness while following county borders
• Match partisan breakdown of seats to the electorate
• Create as many majority-minority districts as possible
• Can be “opportunity” districts -- not necessarily a majority

What I Did!

• Drew over 200 maps using a free application called Dave’s Redistricting
• Designed to reflect each of the six characteristics that I outlined
• Allows for the splitting of precincts or census blocks for maximum precision
• Researched historical maps to see trends

Egregious Current Example: Texas -- 2

Maryland -- Favors Dems

Case Study -- Virginia Democratic

Average Dem Seats -- 8.75; Average Rep Seats -- 2.25

Virginia Republican

Average Dem Seats -- 3.51; Average Rep Seats -- 7.49

Virginia Compact/Proportionally Partisan

Average Dem Seats -- 5.73; Average R Seats -- 5.27

Virginia Majority-Minority

Districts 8 & 9 -- Black majority; Districts 10 & 11 -- minority coalition. 4.41 districts will be represented by a minority on average

Virginia Competitive

All districts except 8, 9, and 11 voted for neither Clinton or Trump in 2016 by more than 5%.

Other Interesting Maps -- 53-0 California

Wisconsin Majority-Minority

• Connects Milwaukee to Racine & Kenosha via Lake Michigan
• 41% Black
• 38% White
• 18% Hispanic

Nationwide Seats

• Dem Gerrymander -- 302/132
• Rep Gerymander -- 111/324
• Compact -- 207/228

So What Can Be Done?

• Fight for independent, citizen-led, redistricting commissions across the country
• Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act which would accomplish this nationwide
• Need to abolish the Senate filibuster for this to happen
• Stay engaged!