Northumberland Demographic Snapshot�May 6, 2022
Jonathan Johnson Senior Policy Analyst
Center for Rural Pennsylvania�johnsonj@rural.pa.gov | www.rural.pa.gov
Center for �Rural Pennsylvania
Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly �(Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)
Mandates
Recent Legislative Hearings: �Opioid Use, Broadband Access, COVID-19 Vaccines, Rural Aviation; Invasive Species; Solar on Farmland
Population Change
Has Northumberland County Always been a rural county?
4
No! �From 1870 to 1950 Northumberland had a population density above the statewide rate.
Population in Northumberland County, �1920 to 2020
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau
Municipal Population Change in Northumberland County
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent Change in Pennsylvania Municipal Population, 2010 to 2020
Population Change by County, 2010 to 2020
Causes of Population Change
In- and Out-Migration and Natural Change
Which U.S. county did the highest number of Northumberland County expatriates move to in 2019?
Lycoming County, Pennsylvania
343 persons moved from Northumberland County to Lycoming County
Migration Into and Out of Northumberland County, 2019
3,993 Persons Moved Into Northumberland County
4,267 Persons Moved Out of Northumberland County
| In-Migration | Out-Migration | Net |
Inside Pennsylvania | 3,094 | 3,455 | -361 |
Other States | 823 | 812 | 11 |
International | 76 | 0 | 76 |
Total | 3,993 | 4,267 | -274 |
Data source: 2019 5-year Average, American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau
In and Out-Migration from �Northumberland County, �2019
In-Migration into Northumberland County, 2019
78% of people who moved into Northumberland County came from a county <100 miles away
79% of people who moved out of Northumberland County went to a county <100 miles away
Out-Migration from Northumberland County, 2019
Maps exclude 76 persons who moved in or out of United States. Data source: 2019, 5-year Average, American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau
Births and Deaths in Northumberland County, 1970 to 2020*
*2020 Data is preliminary.
Data sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health.
Every Years Since 1983 Deaths Have Outnumbered Births
Shaded counties had more deaths than births, 2019
According to the CDC, the total fertility rate (TFR) estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of women would have over their lifetimes, based on age-specific birth rates in a given year. Replacement level for the TFR is the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (generally considered to be 2.1 births per woman). Data for Pennsylvania counties is for women age 15 to 44 years old. Data sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Top Five States with the Highest Total Fertility Rates, 2019
...
39. Pennsylvania = 1.65
Total Fertility Rates By County, 2017-2019
Aging Population
What major demographic event occurred at midnight �January 1, 2011?
18
First Baby Boomer turned� 65 years old
19
Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Northumberland County, 1950 to 2040 (projected)
Shaded counties have more persons 65+ than persons <20 years old
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
2011
2019
2030(p)
2040(p)
Percent Change in Public School Enrollment, �2020-21 to 2029-30
Data sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education
| Enrollment 2020-21 | Enrollment 2029-30 (pro.) | % Change |
Line Mountain SD | 1,042 | 955 | -8.3% |
Milton Area SD | 1,957 | 1,834 | -6.3% |
Mount Carmel Area SD | 1,451 | 1,325 | -8.7% |
Shamokin Area SD | 2,189 | 2,122 | -3.1% |
Shikellamy SD | 2,838 | 2,432 | -14.3% |
Warrior Run SD | 1,481 | 1,273 | -14.0% |
Northumberland Co. | 10,958 | 9,941 | -9.3% |
Pennsylvania | 1,516,271 | 1,491,811 | -1.6% |
Public School Enrollment in Northumberland County, 1980 to 2029 (projected)
Public School Enrollment in Northumberland County School Districts, 2018-19 to 2028-29 (projected)
Actual
Projected
Age of Employed Persons in Northumberland County, �Second Quarter, 2000 to 2021
Data source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics , U.S. Census Bureau.
Population Diversity
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This morning, how many minutes did it �take the sun to get from Mount Carmel to Herndon Borough?
Mount Carmel
Borough
May 6, 2022
Sunrise = 5:58 AM
Herndon
Borough
May 6, 2022
Sunrise = ???
25
2 Minutes
Mount Carmel
Borough
May 6, 2022
Sunrise = 5:58 AM
Herndon
Borough
May 6, 2022
Sunrise = 6:00 AM
People of Color in Northumberland County
Northumberland County
Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2020
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent of Population of Color, 2000 to 2020
Number of People of Color by Municipality, �2000 and 2020
Number of People of Color, 2000
(n=1,966,809)
1 Dot = 10 People
People of color include all people who are not non-Hispanic whites. Data sources: 2000 Census, and 2020 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
Number of People of Color, 2020
(n=3,463,572)
Changing Families and Housing
What percentage of Northumberland Countians have lived in the same home for more than 30 years?��A. 16%�B. 23%�C. 39%
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What percentage of Northumberland Countians have lived in the same home for more than 30 years?�A. 16%�B. 23%�C. 39%
30
Changing Households in Northumberland County
Single Person Households, 1970 to 2020
Types of Households in Northumberland County, 2020
Housing in Northumberland County
69%
Pennsylvania Homeownership Rate
71% Northumberland Homeownership Rate
$187,500
Pennsylvania
Median Home Value
$119,8000
Northumberland Median Home Value
Occupied and Vacant Housing in Northumberland County
Ratio of Income to Rent for Northumberland County Renters, 2020
--Summary--�5 Things to Remember
The county is experiencing a prolong period of slow and declining population.
This is a long-term trend, and it is unlikely to change in the near term.
The county’s population is becoming older and more diverse.
Aging population will have profound education and economic implications.
Northumberland County is not alone.
What to do?
Don’t panic, these are not new issues.
Learn the causes of these trends and how they are affecting your county.
Recognize that there are no silver bullets– you’ll need to try many different policies and programs.
Focus on improving quality of life for all residents– don’t cater to specific generation.
Remember that Northumberland is a big county with lots of assets and opportunities.