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Electoral College

Fellow of The Institute for Mathematics and Democracy

Wellesley College Department of Mathematics

Arial Brookhart

December 5th, 2024

Redesigning Our Democracy:

A Quantitative Approach

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HISTORY

Concern about asking people with very little political experience to select someone

Smaller states had concerns about being "overrun" by more populous states

"Three-fifths compromise" allowed Southern states to count three-fifths of their enslaved populations in their total census

The electoral college was a solution to unite states under a federal system - an attempt to mediate between state and federal power.

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HOW DOES IT WORK?

Each state has a certain number of members of the Electoral College.

    • One elector for each House representative (435)
    • Two electors for the two senators (100)
    • District of Columbia gets three electors (3)
    • 270 is needed to win.

These members vote for a candidate who received the plurality of votes in their state,

    • Exception: Maine and Nebraska

So it is not the people who elect the president, it is the Electoral College.

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DISPROPORTIONATE POWER

  • Each House representative is supposed to account for roughly the same number of people (about 760,000 ppl)
    • At least one representative
    • Guaranteed two senators (+2 effect)

  • Overall it takes 3.8 times as many people in California as in Wyoming to exert the same influence on the Electoral College for those 3 electoral votes.
  • In other words, Wyoming people have 3.8 times more voting power.

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This map shows each state re-sized in proportion to the relative influence of the individual voters who live there.

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GEOGRAPHY - 2020 ELECTION

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IMAGINE…

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IMAGINE…

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IMAGINE…

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IMAGINE…

  1. 41,000 people moved.
  2. No state’s population count has changed.
  3. Nobody’s political opinion has changed.
  4. But now Trump wins AZ, GA, and WI
  5. It would’ve been a TIE!

Electoral College gives those voters disproportionate power.

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IS IT POSSIBLE TO WIN IN TERMS OF VOTE NUMBERS AND HAVE A MINORITY OF ELECTORS?

This has happened five times, including twice in the 21st century (9%!)

Problem is the winner-take-all system in most states.

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Just how few votes would a candidate need to win 270 electoral votes?

Assumptions:

  1. Only 2 candidates
  2. One candidate won each state by just one vote - didn't win any votes in other states

A candidate only needs to win the 11 states with the most electoral votes to hit 270.

Large states:27%

Small States: 23.1%

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ALTERNATIVES

Abolish – use the popular vote.

  • Require a Constitutional amendment with ⅔ of House and Senate and 3/4 of the states ratifying it.

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

  • Award all electoral votes to winner of popular vote

Apportion electoral votes according to percentages of popular votes.

  • 60% of the popular vote = 60% of the electoral votes

Assign electoral votes at the level of districts.

  • Each congressional district gets one electoral vote.
  • Two senate votes go to plurality winner.
  • Maine and Nebraska.

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QUESTIONS

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The Electoral College Turns Modest Wins Into Landslides

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Since the founding of the Electoral College, there have been 156 faithless electors.

Thirty-three states have laws requiring electors to follow the popular vote

  • Impose penalties such as a $500 fine, cancellation of the vote, or appointment of a substitute elector

2000 Democratic elector Barbara Lett-Simmons abstained from voting rather than casting her vote for Al Gore.

  • Her abstention was meant to protest the lack of Congressional representation for Washington, DC.
  • Did not affect the election results

IS AN ELECTOR OBLIGED TO RESPECT THE VOTE OF THEIR STATE?

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ONE PERSON, VOTE

Smaller states appear to have an advantage in the Electoral College.

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Add electoral votes so that each represents the same population.

  • The smallest per-population vote is Wyoming’s (192,000), so this would have to be the population for every vote.

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ABOUT THE CANDIDACY

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System—it’s only a bit larger than the Moon. The planet’s name has nothing to do with the liquid metal

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OUR GOALS

TRUST

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place. It’s full of iron oxide dust

DIALOGUE

It’s a gas giant, composed mostly of hydrogen and helium

FAIR ELECTION

Jupiter is a gas giant and the biggest planet in the Solar System

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WHAT SETS US APART?

REPUBLICANS

It’s the closest planet to the Sun and also the smallest one in the Solar System

DEMOCRATS

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place. The planet is full of iron oxide dust

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WHAT SETS US APART?

REPUBLICANS

It’s the closest planet to the Sun and also the smallest one in the Solar System

DEMOCRATS

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place. The planet is full of iron oxide dust

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AWESOME WORDS

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CORE VALUES

MARS

Mars is a very cold place

NEPTUNE

Neptune is the farthest planet

JUPITER

Jupiter is the biggest planet

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one

MERCURY

Mercury is the smallest planet

VENUS

Venus has a beautiful name

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PARTIES

01

You can enter a subtitle here if you need it

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A PICTURE ALWAYS REINFORCES THE CONCEPT

Images reveal large amounts of data, so remember: use an image instead of long texts

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A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

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VOTERS

MARS

Mars is a very cold place

JUPITER

Jupiter is the biggest planet

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one

VENUS

Venus has a beautiful name

To modify this graph, click on it, follow the link, change the data and paste the new graph here

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VOTER PROFILE

GENDER

AGE

25-35

36-45

46-65

60%

85%

INTERESTS

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—SOMEONE FAMOUS

“This is a quote, words full of wisdom that someone important said and can make the reader get inspired.”

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VOTE ANALYSIS

02

You can enter a subtitle here if you need it

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REVIEWING CONCEPTS IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA

MERCURY

Saturn is the ringed one and a gas giant

It’s the biggest planet in the Solar System

Neptune is the farthest planet from the Sun

Venus has a beautiful name, but it’s terribly hot

VENUS

Despite being red, Mars is actually a cold place

MARS

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun

JUPITER

SATURN

NEPTUNE

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SURVEYS

VENUS

It has a beautiful name, but it’s terribly hot

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one and a gas giant

MERCURY

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun

JUPITER

It’s the biggest planet in the Solar System

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GOALS & STRATEGY

03

You could enter a subtitle here if you need it

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CAMPAIGN GOALS

03

You can enter a subtitle here if you need it

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INFOGRAPHICS MAKE YOUR IDEA UNDERSTANDABLE…

NEPTUNE

The reason why it is blue is the presence of gas methane

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one. It’s composed of hydrogen and helium

55%

45%

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IMPORTANT STATES

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one

MERCURY

Mercury is the smallest planet

VENUS

Venus has a beautiful name

MARS

Mars is a very cold place

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USE A GRAPH TO SHOW YOUR DATA

To modify this graph, click on it, follow the link, change the data and paste the new graph here

Mars is a cold place

Democrats

Saturn is the ringed planet

Republicans

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THIS IS A MAP

Democrats

Republicans

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A TIMELINE ALWAYS WORKS WELL

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place

It’s the biggest planet in the Solar System

Yes, this is the ringed one. It’s a gas giant

Neptune is the farthest planet from the Sun

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TIMELINE

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one

MERCURY

Mercury is the smallest planet

VENUS

Venus has a beautiful name

MARS

Mars is a very cold place

1

2

3

4

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AWESOME WORDS

Because key words are great for catching your audience’s attention

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01

04

02

05

03

06

GOALS

Saturn is a gas giant, composed mostly of hydrogen and helium

Venus has a beautiful name and is the second planet from the Sun

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place, full of iron oxide dust

Neptune is the eighth and farthest planet from the Sun

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one

Jupiter is a gas giant and the biggest planet in the Solar System

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BUDGET

04

You can enter a subtitle here if you need it

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STRATEGY

STEP 2

Saturn is the ringed one

STEP 1

Mercury is the smallest planet

STEP 3

Venus has a beautiful name

STEP 4

Mars is a very cold place

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ELECTION DESCRIPTION

DEMOCRATS

  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here

REPUBLICANS

  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here
  • Write your description here

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$23,667

$98,567

FUNDING

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun

Venus has a beautiful name, but it’s hot

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MARKETING CHANNELS

AGENCY

Voters

Voters

Voters

Media

Media

Media company

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PROMOTION

MERCURY

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun

VENUS

Venus has a beautiful name, but it’s terribly hot

MARS

Despite being red, Mars is a cold place

JUPITER

It’s the biggest planet in the Solar System

SATURN

Saturn is the ringed one and a gas giant

NEPTUNE

Neptune is the farthest planet from the Sun

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A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words

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BUDGET ALLOCATION

VENUS

MERCURY

JUPITER

SATURN

$2,000

$3,100

$400

$1,300

$3,400

$600

$200

$100

$4,000

$1,600

$800

$500

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$45,000,000

Is the total budget for the campaign

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ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN 1

CHANNEL

Multimedia

BUDGET

$ 25,000,000

GOALS

  • Here you can list your goals
  • Here you can list your goals
  • Here you can list your goals

DESCRIPTION

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System

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ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN 2

CHANNEL

Press

DESCRIPTION

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System

GOALS

  • Here you can list your goals
  • Here you can list your goals

BUDGET

$ 1,000,000

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PR OUTREACH

MEDIA CHANNELS

GOALS

KEY MESSAGES

Multimedia

Press

Radio

It’s the ringed one

Mars is a cold place

It’s the biggest

50%

40%

10%

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PREDICTED REACH

20,000

Retweets

100,000

Mentions & interactions

To modify this graph, click on it, follow the link, change the data and paste the new graph here

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MULTIMEDIA

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System—it’s only a bit larger than the Moon

Insert your multimedia content here

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OUR TEAM

Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun and the smallest one in the Solar System—it’s only a bit larger than the Moon

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THANKS!

Do you have any questions?

youremail@freepik.com +91 620 421 838 yourcompany.com

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CREDITS: This presentation template was created by Slidesgo, including icons by Flaticon, infographics & images by Freepik

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THANKS!

Do you have any questions?

Please keep this slide for attribution

This presentation template was created by Slidesgo, including icons by Flaticon, infographics & images by Freepik and illustrations by Stories

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ALTERNATIVE RESOURCES

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RESOURCES

PHOTO

ICON

  • Elections Icon Pack