Scenario Analysis: CPI events!
Assumption: CPI has big impact in the Markets and based on the outcome each event has (uptrend or downtrend) it can boost or reverse a trend.
Questions:- Indeed it has big impact?
- Is this one of the most powerful events by itself?
- It can boost or reverse a trend? (lead the market)
- Is it safe to trade based on that event?
- It forms based on the result we get from the event (uptrend or
downtrend) immediately? or it takes hours or days to form?
- Some types of CPI events are better and some are not?
The period of my Scenario Analysis starts from January and it end in June (6 months).
Content of the slides per pages/modules
- page 3 : Bracket system explained
-page 4-6 : Situation + How we can view a CPI event
- page 7-15 : Summary of all the 104 events I analyzed
- page 15 : Important clarifications - terminology of 2 specific sectors
- page 16-146: Analyze every event (trades I took-Notes-thoughts etc)
- page 147-151 , 154-157 , 159-162 , 164-167, 169-172 , 174-177: Weekly reviews.
- page 152-153 , 158, 163 , 168 , 173 178 : Monthly Outlooks
- page 179-243 When it forms
- page 244-258 +Bonus: Separating the types of CPI events and checking if some of them are better or not + The answer
- page 258-261: Conclusion.
System:Opening trades with brackets system (In 1 hour timeframe)
Rules: 1) You put a horizontal line in the upper wick and you also put another horizontal line in the lower wick of the candle in the hour the event taking place
If the next candle happened for example to go above the horizontal line, then we open a trade with long position (see photo to understand)
In the number 1 (of photo), we see the hour the CPI event happening (it is not a real life example, but I used this photo to explain how it works).
We see then based on photo that the second candle goes above the horizontal line, so we open long trade position.
Stop-loss: In the opposite direction we have the other horizontal line from the other side.Here specifically because we opened a long position, the stop loss is in the lower wick of the horizontal line (see number 3 where the trade stopped out, this is where we put the stop loss).
Take profit: We don't have a fixed take profit because of the needs of the scenario analysis. (to see how % win we can take from the trades we open).
-I will measure every trade I took with the tool Tradingview giving us, just to have an idea of how much winner rate we can get from the trades I opened based on this system.
2)I can only open two trades based on that system.Meaning, if the one got stopped out quickly then I can take a second one.But if the trade last many days then Im not taking a second trade.In the number 4 we see the first trade got stopped sooner and thats why I opened a second trade, which I was allowed to open based on my rules.
Situation:
Before starting, what good here is to make some disclaimers for better understanding:
The hours I'm putting are based on what I'm seeing in Forex Factory (The source Im using to see the events) and the timezone Im in is based on the country I'm living, which is: UTC +2:00 (in winter/autumn) and UTC +3:00 (in spring/summer season).
You can see what specific time the CPI events are happening by visiting the calendar of the Forex Factory site in the days the event taking place.
So, whenever you see the hours I'm using, you can adapt it based on your timezone.Also the NYSE time to me is happening at 16:00pm. So, be mindful that it is not wrong, but it is that I'm in another country with different timezone.
Coins I used for my Analysis: 1)The Graph (Grt) 2)Reef 3)Ton 4)Ethereum 5)Polygon (Matic) 6)Chainlink (Link) 7)Threshold (T) 8)Ankr 9)STPT 10)Avalance (Avax) 11)EthereumPow (Ethw) 12)1000pepe 13) Bitcoin
For the sake of brevity, I will use the diminutives of the currencies I have in quotations.
Now, before we start analytically, in the following slides Im explaining what can we see and expect based on the data/ result each event giving us and what answer we can have and what CPI events stand for in general:
What CPI events stand for: Inflation. CPI= Consumer Price Index
It measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by customers.
We have many types of CPI events (11 that I used), where they are all the same in the meaning but what makes them different are currencies (EUR, AUD, USD etc).Also we have some CPI events from specific countries (for example Germany or Spain).
Now, How we view them and what can we expect based on the results! :
Well, if we go to the Forex Factory and find some CPI events, we see it has the 1= “Actual” (which is the result and it gets filled only when the date n hour taking place), the 2= “Forecast” (The expectations they have for this event that they put before the event took place) and the 3= “Previous” (which shows the outcome of the previous results from the same type of CPI event).
The way I'm looking at it specifically is based on the “Actual” (from now on I'm calling this “result”, so keep that in mind) and the “previous” .But, some traders looking at it based on the “Actual and the “Forecast”.But Im looking it based on the “Actual” and the “Previous”.
What can we expect in simple words is:
Lets say a CPI event has as result 3.8%, and the Previous is 3.9% (Im not looking the forecast in this scenario analysis specifically, but in others I do). Forecast is good to see it before the Result data gets filled, some days ago just to see and analyze with the same way I'm looking the actual n the forecast how the market might go and the expect for some moves.
Now, If the result (The “Actual”) has lower rate than the previous results, like the example above( with 3.8 result and 3.9 previous), then this means= Uptrend chance.
If the result for example has bigger rate than the previous (let's say the result 4.0 % and the previous has 3.9), this means= Downtrend chance or volatility!
The lower the outcome/result, the better for market it is to go to the moon, meaning to go up!The opposite means downtrend or volatility
But, why in the second example , if we have bigger rate results than the previous, we have also have volatility chance instead of only downtrend chance?!
-Because if the result gives us the answer: downtrend or volatility chance, then the Market has to REPRICE! Also, the more FED cuts the rates, the more expectations we have for high rates and then the weaker the market goes (consolidating for example).
What is important to say here is that we view with the same way and other events.Why Im saying that? Because when I will show analytically the trades I put and write down everything in details, I will out of what might caused some specific moves as well by putting other events.So if you see other events from the Forex Factory dont get confused, we view these type of events with THE SAME WAY I explained in the CPI!
The ONLY event that works the opposite is the UNEMPLOYMENT claims/rates,where in that case IF the Actual is bigger than the previous (lets say the Actual has 4.0 and the previous has 3.8) then this means= Uptrend chance (see the opposite on how we view CPI).Also when the Unemployment rate is high but the FED do not cut rates= Bearish.
And if for example the Actual of the Unemployment claims/rates has lower result compared to the previous (let's say the actual 3.8 and the previous 4.0) then this means=Downtrend or volatility possibility. It is the only exception on how we can view and get answers compared to other events.
Now, with all that being said, just by covering these necessary information for your better understanding (you'll also understand why besides the data I'll write “uptrend” or “downtrend/ volatility chance” etc), We can move to the next slides where I will analyze in DEPTH what I did, how many trades I took, their winner rate, thoughts, comments, what might caused these moves etc
Also when I'll finish this analyze, I'll put weekly/monthly outlooks where we can see in summary what informations we get, then we will see based on the the answer the CPI events gives us, if the trend we get from the answer if actually formed in the market(if it formed immediately , or hours or days later or if it doesn't formed at all) and then Ill write a bonus in the end before conclusion, where I put all the CPI events (each type together) to see if some specific ones are or not accurate and profitable or not, with chance or not to trade.
Before starting: R stand for Result/Actual, F stands for Forecast and P for Previous
These are all the CPI events I used (104) for the needs of this analysis (I used only the ones with high impact- red/orange ones) in the period of the 6 months (from the beginning of January till the end of June)
January:
-4/1 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.1% F=0.2% P=-0.4%
-5/1 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash estimate y/y” R=3.4 F=3.4 P=3.6
-5/1 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=3.0 P=2.4
-8/1 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=-0.1 P=-0.2
-9/1 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.1 F=2.1 P=2.3
-10/1 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=4.3 F=4.4 P=4.9
-11/1 15:30pm USD “Core CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.3
-11/1 15:30pm USD “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.1
-11/1 15:30pm USD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.2 P=3.1
-12/1 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=-0.3 F=-0.4 P=-0.5
-16/1 15:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=-0.3 F=-0.3 P=0.1
-16/1 15:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=3.6 F=3.3 P=3.6
-16/1 15:30pm CAD”Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.7 F=3.4 P=3.5
-16/1 15:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=3.9 F=3.8 P=3.9
-17/1 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=3.8 P=3.9
-23/1 11:45am NZD “CPI q/q” R=0.5 F=0.5 P=1.8
-26/1 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.6 F=1.9 P=2.1
-30/1 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.0 P=3.1
-31/1 02:30am AUD “CPI q/q” R=0.6 F=0.8 P=1.2
-31/1 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.7 P=4.3
-31/1 02:30am AUD “Trimmed Mean CPI q/q” R=0.8 F=0.9 P=1.2
-31/1 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.1 P=0.1
February:
-1/2 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=3.3 F=3.2 P=3.4
-1/2 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.8 F=2.7 P=2.9
-8/2 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=-0.8 F=-0.5 P=-0.3
-13/2 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.6 P=0.0
-13/2 15:30pm “Core CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.3
-13/2 15:30pm “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.3
-13/2 15:00pm “CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=2.9 P=3.4
-14/2 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=4.1 P=4.0
-20/2 15:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.4 P=-0.3
-20/2 15:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=3.3 F=3.6 P=3.5
-20/2 15:30pm CAD “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.6 P=3.7
-20/2 15:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.6 P=3.4
-28/2 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R3.4= F=3.6 P=3.4
-29/2 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.5 P=0.2
-29/2 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.8 P=3.4
March:
-1/3 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=3.1 F=2.9 P=3.3
-1/3 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.6 F=2.5 P=2.8
-4/3 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.5 P=0.2
-5/3 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.5 F=2.5 P=1.8
-9/3 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.7 F=0.3 P=-0.8
-12/3 14:30pm USD “Core CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.4
-12/3 14:30pm USD “CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.4 P=0.3
-12/3 14:30pm USD “CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=3.1
-19/3 14:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.6 P=0.0
-19/3 14:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.3 P=3.3
-19/3 14:30pm CAD “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.4 P=3.4
-19/3 14:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.4 P=3.3
-20/3 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.5 P=4.0
-22/3 01:30am JPY “National Core CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.8 P=2.0
-27/3 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.5 P=3.4
-27/3 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=2.8
-29/3 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.4 F=2.4 P=2.5
April:
-2/4 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.5 P=0.4
-3/4 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=3.0 P=3.1
-3/4 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.4 F=2.5 P=2.6
-4/4 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.3 P=0.6
-10/4 15:30pm USD “Core CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.4
-10/4 15:30pm USD “CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.4
-10/4 15:30pm USD “CPI y/y” R=3.5 F=3.4 P=3.2
-11/4 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.1 F=0.4 P=0.7
-16/4 15:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.7 P=0.3
-16/4 15:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=3.0 P=3.0
-16/4 15:30pm CAD “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.2 P=3.2
-16/4 15:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=3.1 P=3.1
-17/4 01:45am NZD “CPI q/q” R=0.6 F=0.6 P=0.5
-17/4 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=3.4
-24/4 04:30am AUD “CPI q/q” R=1.0 F=0.8 P=0.6
-24/4 04:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.5 F=3.4 P=3.4
-24/4 04:30am AUD “Trimmed Mean CPI q/q” R=1.0 F=0.8 P=0.8
-26/4 02:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.6 F=2.2 P=2.4
-29/4 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.5 F=0.6 P=0.4
-30/4 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.7 F=2.6 P=2.9
-30/4 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.4 F=2.4 P=2.4
May:
-2/5 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.1 P=0.0
-11/5 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.1
-15/5 15:30pm USD “Core CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.4
-15/5 15:30pm USD “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.4 P=0.4
-15/5 15:30pm USD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.4 P=3.5
-21/5 15:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=0.5 F=0.5 P=0.6
-21/5 15:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=2.6 F=2.7 P=2.9
-21/5 15:30pm CAD “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=2.9 P=3.2
-21/5 15:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=2.6 F=2.8 P=2.9
-22/5 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=2.3 F=2.1 P=3.2
-29/5 04:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.6 F=3.4 P=3.5
-29/5 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.1 F=0.2 P=0.5
-30/510:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.6 F=3.7 P=3.3
-31/5 02:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.9 F=1.9 P=1.6
-31/5 12:00pm EUR “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=2.7 P=2.7
-31/5 12:00pm EUR “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.6 F=2.5 P=2.4
June:
-4/6 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.3
-12/6 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.3 F=0.4 P=0.3
-12/6 15:30pm USD “Core CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.3 P=0.3
-12/6 15:30pm USD “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.1 P=0.3
-12/6 15:30pm USD “CPI y/y” R=3.3 F=3.4 P=3.4
-19/6 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=2.0 F=2.0 P=2.3
-25/6 15:30pm CAD “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.3 P=0.5
-25/6 15:30pm CAD “Median CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.6 P=2.6
-25/6 15:30pm CAD “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=2.8 P=2.9
-25/6 15:30pm CAD “Common CPI y/y” R=2.4 F=2.6 P=2.6
-26/6 04:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=3.5 P=3.6
-28/6 02:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.1 F=2.0 P=1.9
-28/6 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.3 P=3.6
In summary they are all 104.And I will analyze in each event how many trades I took, the winner rate, what might caused some moves, thoughts etc
*The “accuracy” you'll find me writing about in every event, means accuracy between the answer the event giving us and between the POSITIONS OF THE TRADES! Not Accuracy between the Market-if it forms and the answer the event giving us. This type of “accuracy” between events and the market is something I will analyze near the end of the Analysis and not now.
Also the “Events: “ section, means the events that might affect the market as well.
“Continuation”= Youll find me using beside some events this terminology.Im using this word whenever the “Actual” has the same rate like the “previous”.In these cases, the continuation means that the events has no impact in the market/charts as it gives no specific direction (uptrend or downtrend) and by that we simply expecting that the already current trend or phase the market has before the event, it'll continue and it wont be affected by the specific CPI event.What is very important to remind here is that no matter the subject of the analysis, the market doesn't move only by these events, but indeed and often many time it get lead by that.When we have continuation we expect small moves or simply the current trend to continue.So if we are in consolidation, we might continua as the event has neutral outcome and it is not able to change it.If we have “continuation” in an uptrend we expect the uptrend to continue and so on with the instances.
January: 4/1 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.1 F=0.2 P=-0.4 (downtrend)
(continue) NOTES: So, the data we have from the event gives us downtrend chance: R=0.1 F=0.2 P=-0.4%
Just by seeing what the event gives us, without taking a look at the trades I wrote and the chart of the coins, in the previous slide, I believe that we have chance for downtrend or volatility moves (more short positions)
But from taking a look at the trades, we have: 9 longs | 10 shorts
Unfortunately we have a demi situation (demi=half-size).Instead of having more shorts we have also and longs, which that creates confusion.
We also see that we don't have trades with big winner rates, but only 3 (big winner rates are the trades I took that are 10% and above, less than 10%=low winner rate).The 3 good trades are coming from STPT , T , Ethw.
2 of them are LONG positions, so again, that show us the opposite outcome than the expected and only the 1 is short position.
The first trades were opened in the first hours, but this does not play a big role because 2 of the big winner trades were opened in the first hours (02:00)
But, what caused this?! :
Forex Factory events that might affected that moves:
The only reason Im not writing the results of the events, are because at these hours I didint opened trades, so theres no need to explain it further.
(Continue) NOTES:
loser trades: 0
we have accuracy? Well, based on the trades, no, because we are in the middle.Also we don't have accuracy based on the 3 good trades. (the positions of these 3 trades)
Now based on the charts, In the photo we see the chart of STPT coin, where we have in the first hours up moves before the actual short trend.This might be caused to create confusion in the market by whales just to stop the trades they will open out thinking we have uptrend moves or because some of them look at the forecast instead of the previous.Unfortunately it was one of the good trades, but still,
we have too many low winner rates because of
that.
This gives me the feeling that I have to wait some
hours before opening a trade, but we are in the
very beginning, so I will see how things will go
with the data I will collect.
5/1 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=3.4 F=3.4 P=3.6
b) “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=3.0 P=2.4
NOTES:The reason I put 2 events together is because the took place the same hour, so there's no need to do them separately because with the system I use (brackets) the trades Ill open will be the same.
Now, based on these events, the a) event gives us chance for uptrend and the b) event gives us downtrend chance or volatility.
Now because these 2 gives 2 different answers, this is a chance to see with the trades I took and based on the chart, which of these 2 prevails more:
Let's see :
Total trades: 13 | 3 longs |10 shorts | losses: 0
We see that we have more shorts, which this gives us an answer that maybe the second one has more impact.
Also , compared to the previous event, at least for the moment, these 2 are better because only 4 out of the 13 total trades are LOW winner trades.The rest 9 are big winner trades, 8 are short positions and only 1 long , which this tells us even more that the second event is the one we will consider generally as downtrend chance.
The most trades were opened at 14:00-16:00 hours and most of them had good outcome and most of the good trades were opened at least for 1 whole day in the 1H timeframe.
Now lets see what might caused these moves: Forex factory events:
*Whenever I write continuation, its because we have the same rate as an outcome.So, whenever we have continuation, it means continuation based on the current trend the market had before the event took place. So if before the event we had uptrend for example, the continuation means we continue with uptrend.The same goes for downtrend.So everytime Im writing “continuation”, this is what I mean.
Well, we see in that day we had many events with serious impact as well.Now before commenting at the events, because we have “continuation” to many, its time first to see one chart (that most of the coins have a similar one):
In the chart we see the Link coin.Before the event we had downtrend move, with the big red candle, then it tried to go up a little bit but then it went lower.So, “continuation” in that case means down moves.
Now going back to the events that might caused that effect, we have 8 total events with high impact.
6 out of the 8 means downtrend chance (count them with “continuations” as well because in that case they mean= down moves) and only 2 gives us uptrend chance.So, because most of them happened to took place 3 hours later, we see that helped the CPI event with its result and in general the market to boost it with downtrend moves. That's why we also had more significant moves and that's why most of the trades came big winners.(with 10% and above)
Accuracy: Yes, based on the trades (in general and specifically the best trades I has as well) we have accuracy.The outcome of the event and with the other events, that was a good event that gave us a chance for good trades.But because we are still in the beginning, this doesn't mean that the next same ones will be the same or not.
Also, most of these events happened to be 15:30, 30 minutes before the NYSE opens (16:00pm in my timezone) and this might help them as well to go lower before going up and at 10/1 to make this trade closed.
8/1 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=-0.1 P=-0.2
The event gives us downtrend chance/volatility= R=0.0 F=-0.1 P=-0.2
So I believe that we might have more shorts than long positions because this is what the event tell me (downtrend chance)
Now lets see the results (the trades I opened based on the bracket system) :
Total trades: 18 | 11 longs | 2 shorts
Losses: 5 (STPT at 10:00, Avax at 10:00, Reef at 11:00, Ethereum 11:00 and Matic at 11:00) 4 out of 5 losses were SHORT positions!!!
We notice that in this one event, we have more losses and most of them were opened at 10:00-11:00am.
Good trades: 4 ( they all were long positions, the opposite than what we see from the event because it tells us downtrend chance). Also the good trades were opened at 12:00 and after, 3 hours after the event.
Other events that might caused the opposite moves:
Forex Factory: None. So this tell us the market will only move up no matter the CPI event.After the big red candle we had some days before (see photo) and wants to retrace slowly back where it was.
In the photo we see the chart of Ankr coin.
9/1 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.1 F=2.1 P=2.3
The data we have from the event gives as the answer: Uptrend = R=2.1 F=2.1 P=2.3
Total trades: 14 | 0 longs | 14 shorts
Losses: 0
Best trades: 1 and its short (T at 05:00) Some hours later.
The opposite! Most of the trades were opened at 02:00 , right away the event , maybe that's why we had short moves.
What might caused that?
Forex Factory: 02:30am AUD “Retail Sales m/m” R=2.0 F=1.2 P= -0.4 | downtrend
So we we in the next candle (02:00), after the CPI event, we had this event and it giving us the opposite answer than the CPI event. So this might caused the market to go low. Also, like I said, most of the trades were opened at 02:00. It prevailed the CPI event and maybe that's because the data had big distance between the previous and the actual (from minus to +2.0 its big difference so thats maybe a big reason).
Accuracy: Nope! And we don't have accuracy in the best trade, which this shows us(because the best trades tend to last longer) the down moves last longer.
In the photo we see the chart of Ankr coin.The trade got stopped out after some hours.This shows again that maybe the CPI events show clear results based on the answer it giving us LATER! and at the first 1h candles or maybe after a day it actually forms!
10/1 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=4.3 F=4.4 P=4.9
based on the results: R=4.3 F=4.4 P=4.9 = uptrend chance
Total trades: 16 | 7 longs | 9 shorts
Loser trades: 3 (2 shorts and 1 long) , Link 04:00, Ethereum 11:00, Ton 03:00)
If we remove the losers, the long n short trade in amount are almost equal (6 longs and 7 shorts)
Best trades:4 and they are all longs (Ethereum at 10:00, Matic 07:00, T 04:00, Avax 01:00)
Most of all the trades I took were opened at 03:00-04:00
Other events: Nope! we only had later, in the hours I did not opened any trades, so there's no need to analyze it.
Accuracy: Not really, but based on the good trades, then yes, in that sector we do have accuracy!
2 out of the losers where opened at 03:00-04:00, in the first hours the event happened.Also we notice 3 out of 4 best trade were opened hours later, when the market was more clear on when it'll gonna move.
In the photo we see Matic coin and the moves we have.
11/1 15:30pm USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.3 | Continuation
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.1 | Downtrend
c) “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.2 P=3.1 | Downtrend
All the data give us 1 answer: the 1 continuation and the 2 others downtrend chance.So, mainly we expect downtrend moves!Now lets see the data I collected and if the data the events gives us meet the actual moves of the market!
Total trades: 18 | 4 longs | 11 shorts
Loser trades: 3 (all long positions): Ethereum at 16:00, Avax 16:00, Ankr 16:00
Best trades: 5 and they are all short positions: Ankr 18:00, STPT 17:00, 1000pepe 17:00, Bitcoin 18:00, Avax at 18:00.
So, with these data, we see that yes, we do have Accuracy! Because we have downtrend moves, the majority of all the trades and specifically the best trades are short positions.Also, we see that all the loser trades are long positions, which shows us once again that no matter if we have accuracy (because most of the times based of my system all the trades usually are opened at the first 2 hours and then some hours after the trend forms) or not from the trades, the CPI events always shows how big impact they have because sooner or later (at least till now) , we do have the moves the CPI events giving us to expect!
Other events that caused these moves as well:
So, we see that this event took place the same hour like our CPI events and 30 minutes before NYSE.This gives me the feeling that because NYSE has big impact in the Market, this helped much more to boost the market to have down moves.Also the event gives us downtrend possibility and it also affected the market to take these moves.
In the photo we see the Ankr coin chart.
12/1 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=-0.3 F=-0.4 P=-0.5 | Downtrend (because its minus)
So we have downtrend chance.
Feelings: before looking at the summary from the trades etc, my thoughts are that we will not have accuracy because I noticed that whenever we have CPI events that are taking place in the first am hours (like in our event now at 03:30 am) we don't have accuracy based on the trades and mostly we have the opposite positions.
Now let's see:
Total trades: 18 | 11 longs | 7 shorts
Loser trades: 1(long position)Matic
Best trades: 5 (4 are shorts and 1 long) the shorts: Grt at 20:00, Avax 10:00 , 1000pepe at 10:00 and Bitcoin 09:00, the long : T at 10:00.
Other events:
We see that most of them mean downtrend as well, but the results of the trades giving us long positions, the opposite.The majority are long positions.
Accuracy: No, the only accuracy we have are from the best trades.Also we see that the best trades are taken hours after the event.So this giving us a sign that the market need its time to form the trend the CPI events are giving.Also the other event helped with that because they took place hours later from the CPI.
In the photo we see the chart of 1000pepe, who had one of the best trades.
16/1 15:30pm CAD a) “CPI m/m” R=-0.3 F=-0.3 P=0.1 | Downtrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=3.6 F=3.3 P=3.6 | Continuation
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.7 F=3.4 P=3.5 | Downtrend
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=3.9 F=3.8 P=3.9 | Downtrend
3 events means downtrend and 1 continuation.
So what I'm expecting before moving to the trades is to see more shorts than long.
Total trades: 13 | 6 longs | 7 shorts
Loser trades: 0
Best trades: 1 (Short) T coin at 16:00
Most of the trades were opened at 16:00-17:00, 19:00-20:00
So, we see for 1 and we could have equal trades between longs and shorts.So I cant say we do have accuracy because trades showing either they made up moves before the actual down moves just to stop their trades out.
Events:
So we see 2 out of 3 means uptrend.Thats why we might had these long trades, but we dont have a specific trade, but we are in consolidation.Thats why we had no significant moves from the trades.The down moves like we see from the chart in the photo, form some days later.
In the photo we see the chart of the Matic coin.
17/1 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=3.8 P=3.9 | Downtrend
We have downtrend chance based on the event
Total trades 15 | 10 Longs | 5 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 2 and they were shorts (Ton at 10:00, Ethw at 19:00)
Accuracy:Nope! The majority are long positions and the minority only shorts.But based on the best trades then yes, in this sector we have accuracy
Other events:
5 out of 6 events means downtrend.So still here, instead of the events to boost it more, the 3) event once again (for the second time) prevailed.
In the photo we see the chart of Bitcoin coin and how
23/1 11:45am NZD “CPI q/q” R=0.5 F=0.5 P=1.8 | Uptrend
We have uptrend chance.So once again Im expecting always what the CPI events telling us
Total trades 13 | 8 Longs | 5 Shorts
Losers: 2 (1 long and 1 short) and both trades from Ton. The one at 12:00 and the other at 16:00
Best trades: 7 (6 out of 7 are longs) Longs: Grt 14:00, Matic 10:00, Ankr 22;00, STPT 01:00, Avax 14:00, Ethw 22:00 Shorts: Link at 12:00
Other serious events: Nope
Most of the trades were opened at 12:00pm.
This event had big winner rates.
Accuracy: Yes and from the best trades we have accuracy.Also what I notice is that it is in the late am hours and not in the first ones.So, this somehow confirms my feelings but still, we are in the first month.
In the photo we see the Matic coin.
26/1 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.6 F=1.9 P= 2.1 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance. Lets see what the data tells.
Feelings: The first Tokyo CPI event had no accuracy, so I believe this wouldn't have accuracy as well.
1 of my thoughts as well are that events in general that took place in the first am hours have no accuracy.. and this is what I believe, that Tokyo and all events at FIRST am hours have no accuracy at all.
But, like I said, it's just a thought, end will show its results and If Im right.. so:
Total trades 21 | 10 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers: 1 short, Ethereum at 02:00
Best trades: 4 and they are all long positions: Grt at 10:00, Matic 10:00, Avax 22:00, Bitcoin 10:00
The majority of trades were opened at 02:00-03:00
Events: 1) 15:30pm USD “Core PCE Price Index m/m” R=0.2 F=0.2 P=0.1 | Downtrend
So, we see we DON'T have accuracy, but one of the main reasons I believe we dont have is because most of the trades were opened at 02:00-03:00, meaning, the next 2 hours after the event happened.But based on the best trades and the loser one, we do have accuracy, also the hours of the loser showed that it was too soon to trade + the best trades were at 10:00am and after, meaning in the last am hours, which this have difference between the first ones, where I'm noticing till now that the first am events and trades cause low winners.
In reality, we all set fixed t-p.. and based on what we have, we see that most of them, with those numbers, they could easily get stopped out.So that brings another thoughts, that we do have to wait some hours and then trade.
In the photo we see the chart of Reef coin.
30/1 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.0 P=3.1 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance.
Total trades: 20 | 9 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers:3 = 1 long , ethereum at 12:00 | 2 shorts = Ethereum at 15:00 and Matic at 14:00
Best trades: 2 = 1 short, T at 06:00 and 1 long, link at 14:00
So, if we put out the 3 losses, we have 9 shorts and 8 longs.
The majority of the trades were opened at 12:00-13:00-14:00pm
Events:
3 out of 4= downtrend
Accuracy: Nope.
In the photo we see the chart of Reef coin.
We see that Market like always with CPI events form the trend.But the first trades were long positions.Also it took some time to form.
31/1 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.1 P=0.1 | Downtrend
Downtrend possibility
Total trades: 15 | 3 Longs | 12 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades:1 short (1000pepe at 01:00)
Most of the trades were opened at 01:00
We have more short trades.And they are all opened at 01:00.
Events that might affected that:
Accuracy:Yes, we do have,the majority are shorts, also at the best trade have accuracy.
When I'm writing about accuracy, it's about between trades and not for the trend.Also about the trends, if they form or not based on the outcome of the events, Ill do that in the end in summary for all.Thats why Im not analyzing about accuracy between the market and the event.
3 out of 6 mean Downtrend.And they might boost the Market
When we have Accuracy, everything flows right, so I have nothing else to comment n analyze.
In the photo we see the chart of Ton coin
31/1 02:30am AUD a) “CPI q/q” R=0.6 F=0.8 P=1.2 | Uptrend
b) “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.7 P=4.3 | Uptrend
c) “Trimmed Mean CPI q/q” R=0.8 F=0.9 P=1.2 | Uptrend
Uptrend possibility
Total trades: 16 | 6 Longs | 10 Shorts
Losers: 1 long, Reef (at 07:00)
Best trades: 1 short, 1000pepe at 03:00
Most of the trades were opened at 03:00-04:00 and 07:00 am
Accuracy: Nope.Maybe a cause why this happened is because we had at the same day the other CPI that last a whole day (24h) and that event had downtrend possibility.
Other events :
These 2 had 2 different meanings, maybe that's why we had these moves. But in general, market needs time to form
In the chart we see the STPT coin.STPT was short trade.So we see it stopped out because then the market started to form uptrend moves.
1/2 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=3.5 F=3.2 P=3.4 | Downtrend
b) “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.8 F=2.7 P=2.9 | Uptrend
In the previous same events (happened at 5/1), we see now again, that both have opposite meanings, but the one that prevailed was the second one.So like previously, Im expecting uptrend possibility, because the second gives uptrend possibility.
Total trades 18 | 10 longs | 8 shorts
Loser trades: 2 (both shorts) and they are all from Ankr coin (15:00 and 18:00)
Best trades: 2 and they are all longs (Avax at 19:00 and Link at 14:00)
Most trades were opened at : shorts at 13:00 or 15:00 | Longs mainly at 15:00
Accuracy:We have.If we take out the 2 losers, we have 6 shorts and 10 longs. So, yes,
we do have accuracy and in the best trades as well.
Other events :
We see no matter the events that giving us downtrend chance, most of the long position opened at 15:00, where we have the 2) event.But, it continued (something we see from the best trades and the hours I took Avax for example) and the 3) and 4) event didnt affected the trades much
In the photo we see the chart of Grt coin
8/2 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=-0.8 F=-0.5 P=-0.3 | Uptrend (bcs its minus)
Uptrend chance.
Total trades: 20 | 7 Longs | 13 Shorts
Losers: 3 , 2 of them are shorts = Avax at 14:00 and Reef at 08:00| 1 long T at 18:00
Best trades: 2 longs , STPT at 01:00 and Bitcoin at 10:00
Most trades were opened at 04:00, 06:00-07:00. Most of the shorts were opened at 04:00 and longs in random hours
Accuracy: Nope.The event took place at the first am hours and most of the shorts were opened at the next hour of the event.So, this shows to us that the first hours they create the opposite to get them stopped out.
The only accuracy we have between trades are the best ones.
Other events:
The 1) event happened in the same hour, so it might affected the market more.But when we actually look at the chart we see we are already in an uptrend and only that area created these small patterns.So, CPI lead once again, but it needs time to form.
In the photo we see Grt chart once again and how the market moved.
13/2 09:30am (a) CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.6 P=0.0 | Downtrend
Expecting Downtrend moves.
Total trades: 16 | 9 Longs | 7 Short
Losers: 2 , they are both from Grt coin (11:00 and 14:00) and they are LONG positions.
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened: Longs at 10:00-11:00, short 11:00-12:00
Accuracy: No, we don't have.
Something I notice immediately is that the longs (the opposite position trades I'm expecting to see) are opened in the next hour of the event (once again the opposite moves than expected happening right away the next candles/hours after the event) and the shorts a little bit further than than the event.
Events:
So something that caused these moves.. and from the hours the first 2 events happened we can clearly see why we have these confusion around the trades.
In the photo we see the chart of Avax coin.A trade with low winner rate.
13/2 15:30pm (b) USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=-0.4 F=0.3 P=0.3 |Downtrend
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.3 |Continuation (based on current trend)
c) “CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=2.9 P=3.4 | Uptrend
Downtrend Chance. Why? because we have 1 uptrend and 1 downtrend.The continuation always means based on the current trend.We had downtrend. So, Im expecting downtrend because the majority are 2 out of 3 downtrend.
Total trades: 13| 2 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers: 1 short (Grt at 16:00)
Best trades:1 long (STPT at 22:00)
Most trades were opened at: shorts at 16:00 | longs at 22:00 and 04:00
Accuracy:Yes, most of them are shorts.But we don't have at the best trade.
We see that shorts (accurate positions) happened immediately , which this is something uncommon, because most of the times the first times at the first hours are the NON compatible.
Events: Not serious events after 15:30pm.
In the chart we see the chart of the Ton coin.
14/2 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=4.1 P=4.0 | Continuation (based on current trend)
Continuation, so based on the current trend we have uptrend.Im expecting uptrend.
Total trades: 14 | 14 Longs | 0 Shorts
Losers:0
Best trades: 8 All longs. (Bitcoin, 1000pepe, STPT, Ankr, Matic, Ethereum, Grt, Reef) and one of the top trades at the whole scenario analysis is the 1000pepe trade.
Most of the trades were opened at: 10:00-11:00
Accuracy:Yes! And based on the the best trades as well.One of the perfect events for profits!
Other events: Nope!
In this event we dont only have good events (around 10%).. we have more than 50%.
In the chart we see 1000pepe.
20/2 15:30pm CAD a) “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.4 P=-0.3 | Uptrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=3.3 F=3.6 P=3.5 | Uptrend
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.6 P=3.7 | Uptrend
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.8 P=3.9 | Uptrend
Downtrend chance
Why Im saying downtrend is because the only 1 event that have this answer is m/m and the rest 3 are y/y. The m/m is more important than the yearly because the m/m is more recent than the yearly.
Total trades: 13 | 1 Longs | 12 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 0
Most trades were opened at: 16:00 shorts | 23:00 longs |
Accuracy:Yes! Based on the m/m that Im expecting, indeed we have accuracy.
Events: No serious events, only in the first am hours but this has no serious impact because the trades were many hours after.
In the photo we see the chart of the STPT coin.
28/2 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.6 P=3.4 | Continuation (based on the current trend)
we have continuation, so based on current trend we have volatility!
Total trades: 22 | 12 Longs | 10 Shorts
Losers: 2, 1 long (Ethereum 02:00) and 1 short (Matic 03:00)
Best trades: 2 both longs (1000pepe and Bitcoin)
Most of the trades were opened at: longs=02:00-05:00 and then random hours | shorts=03:00 and then random hours
Accuracy: We have volatility. Not much to say about this, thats why we have almost same amount at shorts and longs.
Events:
Also the events boost this volatility. the second and third have opposite meanings and make more confusion than before.
In the left side , we have Ethw and in the right side we have STPT
29/2 All day (a) EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.5 P=0.2 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 15 | 15 Longs |0 Shorts
Losers:1 (Ton 01:00)
Best trades: 4 longs (Ankr at 07:00, STPT at 01:00, T at 01:00, Reef at 01:00)
Most trades were opened at: 01:00am
Accuracy:Nope, not even 1%.
Events:
At 29/2 we had already uptrend moves.So the 2) event (the continuation) means uptrend.
now with all these information, 6 out of 8 events have uptrend chance.Thats why we have these moves.But these events happened later.. most of them opened at 01:00am.
In the photo we see the STPT chart.And most of the trades got stopped out by this red candle.
29/2 10:00am (b) EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.8 P=3.4 | Uptrend
Uptrend possibility
Total trades: 19 | 8 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers:2 (both from Reef) | 1 long at 17:00 and 1 short at 13:00
Best trades: 0
Most trades were opened at: longs=11:00 , 14:00 | shorts=13:00 and 14:00
Accuracy: Not really, again the trades have the opposite.
Events:
The majority means uptrend, but no matter what the market is very strong.
In the photo we see the chart of Avax coin.
1/3 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=3.1 F=2.9 P=3.3 | Uptrend
b) “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.6 F=2.5 P=2.5 |Downtrend
3rd event and like all the previous times the second one with the downtrend possibility is the one Im expecting.
Total trades: 17| 10 Longs | 7 Shorts
Losers: 2 shorts, 1 Bitcoin at 13:00 and 1 Matic at 18:00
Best trades:3 | 2 Longs (Reef at 14:00 and 1000pepe 14:00) | 1 shorts (Ton at 16:00)
Most of the trades were opened at: Shorts=around 17:00 | Longs=13:00-14:00
Accuracy:No.Not even the best trades
Events:
The events gives us 2 equal answers. (3 uptrend and 3 downtrend).
In the photo we see the chart of T coin where I have with the Marketthe long position.The trade got stopped out by a big red candle.
4/3 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.5 P=0.2 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 16 | 13 Longs | 3 Shorts
Losers: 2 | 1 long=Grt at 10:00 | 1 short=Reef at 16:00
Best trades: 2 | 1 long 1000pepe at 10:00 | 1 short Grt at 12:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs=10:00 | shorts=1 at 10:00 , 1 at 12:00 and 1 at 16:00
Accuracy: Nope.We have a strong pump, where events cant lead the market as catalyst.
Events: No.
In the photo we see the chart of STPT coin
5/3 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.5 F=2.5 P=1.8 | Downtrend
Downtrend Chance
Total trades: 18 | 8 Longs | 10 Shorts
Losers: 2 | 1 long (Reef 02:00) and 1 short (Ethereum at 04:00)
Best trades: 5 | 4 shorts (Grt at 02:00, Ton at 02:00, T at 15:00, Matic at 02:00 ) and 1 long (1000pepe at 02:00)
Most trades were opened at: longs=02:00-03:00 and 07:00 | Shorts= 02:00
Accuracy: Nope because almost they are equal but we have accuracy on the best trades
Events:
The 1) trade took place the same hour like the CPI and maybe that's why we have long positions.This getting confirmed because most of the trades were opened at 02:00-03:00
In the photo we see the chart of Matic coin.
9/3 03:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.7 F=0.3 P=-0.8 | Downtrend
Downtrend possibility
Total trades: 16 | 12 Longs | 4 Shorts
Losers: 1 short (Avax at 04:00)
Best trades: 5 | 4 out of them are longs=Grt at 04:00, Reef at 04:00, Matic at 04:00, T at 04:00 | 1 short 1000pepe 04:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs= 04:00 | Short= 04:00 and 1 at 21:00
Accuracy:No.Like I said in the previous event, we have a strong pump and it cant change
Events:
It happened in the same hour like the CPI event.
In the photo we see the chart of Link coin.
12/3 14:30pm USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.4 | Continuation
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.4 P=0.3 | Downtrend
c) “CPI y/m” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=3.1 | Downtrend
Based on the continuation event, we have downtrend, so all the events giving us downtrend chance
Total trades: 14| 8 Longs | 6 Shorts
Losers: 1 long, STPT at 17:00pm
Best trades: 3 | 2 longs ( Avax at 16:00 and STPT at 21:00pm) | 1 short (Reef at 18:00pm)
Most trades were opened at: longs=15:00pm | shorts=18:00 and 21:00
Accuracy:Nope.From the chart in the photo of Link coin we see that we are on the peek of the pump and now it slowly in the next days it will make the first down moves.Maybe a reason for that are these 3 events that boosted the Market to slowly form the down moves.
Events:
The 1) event gives downtrend chance and because it happened at the morning and after with these 3 events its like it helped for the reverse.
In the photo we see the Link coin.
19/3 14:30pm CAD a) “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.6 P=0.0 | Downtrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.3 P=3.3 | Uptrend
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.4 P=3.4 | Uptrend
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.4 P=3.3 | Uptrend
Im putting more weight on m/m than the other 3 y/y events. So: downtrend chance!
Total trades: 16 | 7 Longs | 9 Shorts
Losers: 1 short, Ton at 16:00pm
Best trades: 2 shorts , Avax at 22:00pm and STPT at 15:00pm
Most trades were opened at : Longs=15:00-18:00pm | Shorts= 15:00-16:00
Accuracy: Well, for 2 we do have, but its not a visible majority.But if we remove the 2 losers , which are shorts, we have equal number of trades between long and shorts.And by thst, we DONT have accuracy.
Events:
In the photo we see Bitcoin .
20/3 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.5 P=4.0 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 17| 13 Longs | 4 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 7 and they are all longs= Ton at 10:00, Ethereum 11:00, Link at 19:00, T at 19:00, STPT at 19:00, 1000pepe at 09:00 and Bitcoin at 13:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs=10:00-11:00 and some at 13:00 | Shorts= 17:00-18:00
Accuracy:Yes ! (Finally) Also the the best trades are accurate
Events:
the first 3 mean uptrend because the current trend is uptrend.So the majority=Uptrend
And they might helped the CPI and the market to move up.
In the photo we see 1000pepe.
22/3 01:30am JPY “National Core CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.8 P=2.0 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades:19 | 11 Longs | 8 Shorts
Losers: 3 | 2 longs, 1000pepe and Matic | 1 shorts , Grt
Best trades:1 long , Ton at 02:00am
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=02:00am and 05:00am | Short=02:00-05:00am
Accuracy:No (rare times we have accuracy)
Events:
3 out of 4 = Uptrend and from the chart we see that these 3 events helped the market to go up.
In the photo we see Reef coin.
27/3 02:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.5 P=3.4 | Continuation
Based on continuation , current trend we have uptrend
Total trades: 16 | 4 Long | 12 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 4 | all shorts= Link at 02:00, T at 02:00, Reef at 05:00 and Avax 06:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs at 03:00 and 05:00 | Shorts at 02:00 , 05:00 , 07:00, 09:00-10:00
Accuracy:No.
Events:
In the photo we see the chart of Ton coin.
27/3 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=2.8 | Downtrend
Downtrend possibility
Total trades: 19 | 10 Longs | 9 Shorts
Losers: 3 | 2 shorts , Ton at 11:00, Ethereum 14:00 | 1 Long , Ethereum at 16:00
Best trades: 4 all shorts, Matic 10:00 , Avax at 11:00, STPT 14:00, Link at 14:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs= Random hours | Shorts= 11:00-12:00 and 14:00
Accuracy:No, and if we remove the 2 short losers, even worse.But based on the the best trades we do have
Events: No
In the photo we see the Avax coin.Also we see how the whole chart moved till 00:00 (1/7)
29/3 01:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.4 F=2.4 P=2.5 | Uptrend
Uptrend possibility
Total trades: 14 | 2 Longs | 12 Short
Losers: 2 longs = Reef at 03:00, Ton at 03:00
Best trades: 2 shorts= Matic at 02:00, Avax at 02:00
Most trades were opened at:
Accuracy:No, the opposite than expected.We have a significant downtrend.
Events:
Even this event have uptrend chance and we down have down moves.
In the photo we see 1000pepe and we see the uptrend formed later
2/4 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.5 P=0.4 | Continuation
Continuation.Now based in our case, we have downtrend.
( Downtrend chance)
Total trades: 18 | 9 Longs | 9 Shorts
Losers:1 long , Matic at 02:00am
Best trades: 6 | 1 long (Grt at 03:00) | 5 shorts (1000pepe at 03:00, Avax at 03:00, STPT at 01:00, T at 03:00 and Ethw at 06:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=01:00 | Shorts:03:00
Accuracy:No because the number are equal.But we do have specifically in the best trades.
Events:
In the photo we see the chart of Ton coin.
3/4 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=3.0 P=3.1 |Uptrend
b) “CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.4 F=2.5 P=2.6 |Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades:14 | 1 Longs | 14 Short
Losers: 1 long, Matic at 12:00
Best trades:2 shorts, Ethw at 14:00, 1000pepe at 13:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=14:00 (1) | Shorts=13:00
Accuracy: No, the opposite.
Events:
The trend we have is downtrend, so we have 2 downtrend events and 1 uptrend.
In the photo we see the Avax coin where we see the uptrend moves formed after 1-2 days. (it always need time and patience.That why we don't have accuracy between trades and the events, because immediately with the bracket system we don't have reversals
4/4 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.3 P=0.6 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 14 | 12 Longs | 2 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 3 longs , Ton at 10:00, T at 11:00, Bitcoin at 10:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=10:00 | Shorts=10:00 + 14:00
Accurate: Yes! And based on the best trades
Events:
Also we see that with this event we have uptrend, so this might lead the market to go up!
In the photo we see the T coin.
10/4 15:30pm USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=0.4 F0.3= P=0.4 |Continuation
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.4 F=0.3 P=0.4 |Continuation
c) “CPI y/m” R=3.5 F=3.4 P=3.2 |Downtrend
The current trend were in is downtrend so the 2 continuations= 2 downtrend chances.So they are all downtrend
Total trades: 12 | 12 Longs | 0 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 1 long , Ton at 16:00pm
Most trades were opened at: Longs=19:00pm | Shorts= X
Accuracy: No, we have in downtrend the pattern when it retrace a little bit before go even lower (pullbacks).
Event:
Again, we have the pullback and thats why with my system I opened long positions. Still it forms no matter if we have no accuracy between trades and the event
The other events still boost the market like the CPI.
In the photo we see Ethw coin and the move it make that caused all the trades to took with the bracket system long positions.
11/4 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.1 F=0.4 P=0.7 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 16 | 10 Longs | 6 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 4 shorts. T at 03:00, Ankr at 15:00 and Ethereum at 17:00, Ethw at 15:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs= 05:00 and 09:00 | Shorts: Random hours
Accuracy: Yes! And it is one of the first events that taking place at the first am hours that indeed have accuracy, because almost every event in the first am hours have no accuracy compared to trades.
Now the thing is, we do have accuracy between the trades, but the thing that made me thinking is that in general this is one of the rare events that have no accuracy to the MARKET! It just doesnt form the uptrend.Thats why we dont have accuracy to the best trades.
Events that might affected that:
In the photo we see the chart of Ethw
16/01 15:30pm CAD a) “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.7 P=0.3 | Downtrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=3.0 P=3.0 | Uptrend
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=3.1 F=3.2 P=3.2 | Uptrend
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=3.1 P=3.1 | Uptrend
Putting weight on m/m than y/y. So I'm expecting downtrend moves and positions
Total trades: 14 | 1 Longs | 13 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs= 03:00 | Shorts= 16:00
Accuracy:Yes!
Events that might affected as well:
The current trend is downtrend with some pullbacks.So we have 4 events with Downtrend meaning that might helped n boost the market to go down.
In the photo we see the chart of Matic coin.
17/4 01:45am NZD “CPI q/q” R=0.6 F=0.6 P=0.5 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 16 | 3 Longs | 13 Shorts
Losers: 1 short. STPT at 05:00am
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=02:00-03:00am | Shorts=05:00am
Accuracy: Yes! Another event that took place the first am hours but once again we dont have best trades.Also we do have accuracy between the market.It forms.
Thoughts: April generally is one month that it is active but gives the first signs that things getting “quiet” as we moving to the summer months (summer months=they are compared to other months non active).Maybe we start to have accuracy (we will see its is not guaranteed yet) because the market have more clear signs by getting not active at all and by that we can clearly see more easily when the market makes significant moves.So like that we can have and more accuracy in events based on the trades.But like I said it is not guaranteed, this is something I will find out when Ill finish inJune.
Events that might affected the market as well: None, we only had at 09:00am but it doesnt count, Im not putting it because we didn't had any trades opened in this specific hour.
In the photo we see the chart of Grt coin:
17/4 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=3.2 F=3.1 P=3.4 | Uptrend chance
Uptrend possibility
Total trades: 15 | 1 Longs | 14 Shorts
Losers:1 long, Grt at 10:00am
Best trades:1 short, 1000pepe at 10:00am
Most of the trades were opened at : Longs=10:00am | Shorts= 10:00am
Accuracy:No! We are in the downtrend and the uptrend the CPI gives started to form 2 days after.We also do not have accuracy to the best trades
Events:
This event helped to have down moves and to have short positions because our CPI event is y/y (year over year) and this event is q/q (quarter over quarter).This creates some thought that y/y events form some days later.This gives an idea for another Scenario Analysis to test.
In the photo we see the chart of Ethereum.
24/4 04:30am AUD a) “CPI q/q” R=1.0 F=0.8 P=0.6 | Downtrend
b) “CPI y/y” R=3.5 F=3.4 P=3.4 | Downtrend
c) “Trimmed Mean CPI q/q” R=1.0 F=0.8 P=0.8 | Downtrend
Downtrend possibility
Total trades: 20 | 5 Longs | 15 Shorts
Losers: 5 all shorts. Grt, Reef, Ton , Matic, Bitcoin ( all at 05:00am)
Best trades: 5 all shorts. Grt at 09:00, Reef at 03:00, Ankr at 05:00, 1000pepe at 11:00, Bitcoin at 05:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs=07:00 (1), 09:00 (1), 13:00 (1) | Short= 05:00
Accuracy:Yes, even if we dont count the losers we still have accuracy.Also we have at the best trades accuracy.
Events:
The 3/5 = Downtrend but the one that helped the most is the 1) one because most of the short trades were opened at 05:00am
In the photo we see the chart of Ankr coin
26/4 02:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.6 F=2.2 P=2.4 | Uptrend
Uptrend possibility
Total trades: 17 | 2 Longs | 15 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 1 short.1000pepe at 03:00am
Most trades were opened at: Longs= 04:00, 07:00-08:00 | Shorts=03:00
Accuracy:As I expected once again with this specific Tokyo CPI event, we dont have accuracy between trades.Also this confirms my feelings once again that the first am hours and the fact that the market needs time form the trend, we do not have accuracy.
Events:
In the photo we have the Ton coin where we see how the market actually moved.
29/4 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.5 F=0.6 P=0.4 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 13 | 0 Longs | 13 Short
Losers: 0
Best trades: 6 all shorts. Grt , Reef, Ton, Ethereum, Matic, T all at 01:00am
Most trades were opened at: Longs= X | Short= 01:00
Accuracy:Yes!
Events:
This event affected as well the marked and boosted it.
Feelings: Based on what I said in the previous slides, that as we are moving to the summer months that are not that active, we can have more accurate data because when the market moves it makes it more clear and significant .This event just proves my feelings.But like Im saying every time, I have to stay humble.I am in the middle and I cant say it as a standard fact.
In the photo we see the chart of Bitcoin.
30/4 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.7 F=2.6 P=2.9 | Uptrend
b) “CPI F lash Estimate y/y” R=2.4 F=2.4 P=2.4 | Continuation
Continuation = current trend is downtrend.
So we have 1 uptrend event | 1 downtrend. Im expecting the trades to around half size.(Demi) Lets see:
Total trades: 13 | 0 Longs | 13 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 5 all shorts. Ethw at 14:00, 1000pepe at 14:00, Bitcoin at 10:00, Ankr at 13:00, Ton at 14:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs= X | Shorts=13:00-14:00
Accuracy:As we see the second event prevailed.So based of that, yes then we do have + and in the best trades as well.
Events:
5 out of 8= uptrend , the rest= downtrends.Unfortunately, no matter the majority of other events who gives us the opposite chance (uptrend), CPI is stronger than that.
In the photo we see the Link coin. Also we see that other events formed AFTER CPI and caused uptrend moves.
2/5 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.1 P=0.0 | Downtrend
Downtrend possibility
Total trades: 13 | 12 Longs | 1 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 12 longs! Grt at 15:00, Reef at 10:00am, Ton at 10:00, Ethereum at 10:00, Link at 10:00, Matic at 10:00 , T at 11:00, STPT at 11:00, Avax at 10:00, Ethw 13:00, 1000pepe at 10:00, Bitcoin at 10:00.
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=10:00-11:00am | Shorts= 16:00pm
Accuracy:No, but we have many good trades.
Events:
In the photo we see the chart of Ton coin
11/5 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.3 F=0.2 P=0.1 | Downtrend
Downtrend opportunity
Total trades:14 | 3 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers: 1 long, Ton at 08:00am
Best trades: 0
Most trades were opened at: Longs=08:00(2), 16:00 (1) | Shorts=06:00-08:00am
Accuracy: Yes!
Events that might affected that:
The event has the opposite opportunity, but it didn't affect the CPI event.The CPI event has a big impact and it is a fact.We see the 1) event did not affected that much because only 3 of the trades were long and around the hours that this event took place.And the shorts that took place the same hours have no effects.
In the photo we see the chart of Ankr coin
15/5 15:30pm USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.4 | Uptrend
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.4 P=0.4 | Uptrend
c) “CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.4 P=3.5 | Uptrend
Uptrend opportunity
Total trades: 13 | 11 Longs | 2 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 12 (2 of are are shorts)= Ton at 07:00 and 1000pepe at 18:00 | Longs= Grt at 14:00 , Reef at 06:00, Ethereum 16:00, Matic at 15:00, Link at 17:00, T at 16:00, STPT at 16:00, Avax at 16:00, Ethw at 17:00 , 1000pepe at 18:00, Bitcoin 16:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs=14:00-17:00pm | Shorts= 07:00 (1), 18:00 (1)
Accuracy:Yes! And we have also in the best trades.
Events:
The events helped as well and they boost the market
In the photo we see the charts of Bitcoin
21/5 15:30pm CAD a) ”CPI m/m” R=0.5 F=0.5 P=0.6 | Uptrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=2.6 F=2.7 P=2.9 | Uptrend
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=2.9 P=3.2 | Uptrend
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=2.6 F=2.8 P=2.9 | Uptrend
Uptrend Opportunity
Total trades: 15 | 6 Longs | 9 Short
Losers: 1 short, Avax at 18:00
Best trades: 2 | 1 long=1000pepe at 10:00 | 1 Short= T at 16:00pm
Most trades were opened at: Longs= 16:00+18:00pm | Shorts= 18:00pm
Accuracy: Nope.
Events that might affected: No
In the photo we see the chart of Ethw coin
22/5 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=2.3 F=2.1 P=3.2 | Uptrend
Uptrend opportunity
Total trades: 17 | 6 Longs | 11 Shorts
Losers: 4 | 3 shorts=Ton at 15:00, Ethereum at 10:00, Bitcoin at 10:00 | 1 Long= Link at 13:00
Best trades: 2 shorts= STPT at 22:00, Avax at 10:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=11:00am (then some randomly) | Shorts=10:00am (then some randomly)
Accuracy: No, also not in the best trades.
Events:
We have 1 uptrend and 1 downtrend (from continuation, based on the current trend we have downtrend)
In the photo we see the Avax chart and how the market moves.
Also this event is one of the rare ones when the outcome of the event did not formed in the market.
29/5 04:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=3.6 F=3.4 P=3.5 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 19 | 13 Longs | 6 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades:1 short, 1000pepe at 09:00am
Most trades were opened at: Longs=05:00 and 07:00 | Shorts= random hours
Accuracy: Nope.Only to the best trade.The reason we had many longs in a downtrend is because we were on a pullback area.That is the reason as well why we have only 1 good trade.
Events:
The 24h event wasnt that strong as a CPI than this one Im analyzing because we have to uptrend moves.
In the photo we see the chart of Reef coin
29/5 All day EUR “German Prelim CPI m/m” R=0.1 F=0.2 P=0.5 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 22 | 13 Longs | 9 Shorts
Losers: 1 long, Ton at 03:00am
Best trades: 0
Most trades were opened at: Longs=01:00am and 03:00am, then some in random hours | Shorts= 02:00-03:00am
Accuracy:Yes , we do have.
Events that might affected that:
The other CPI event “helped” and that's why we have many short trades.This might be a reason why we don't have best trades.
In the photo we see the photo of Ethereum coin.
30/5 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=-3.6 F=3.7 P=3.3 | Uptrend
Uptrend opportunity
Total trades: 13 | 10 Longs | 3 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 1 long, Reef at 13:00pm
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=13:00pm and 15:00pm | Shorts= 10:00 (1), 11:00 (1), 12:00 (1)
Accuracy: Yes we have.And we have in the best trades as well.
Events that might affected the moves:
All these events except the 1) giving are Uptrend expectations.We see that they helped the market for the up moves.But the green candles didn't last long (see photo)
In the photo we see the chart of STPT coin were we had the opposite position (short).It is a good example to see how the market moves when we expect the opposite positions.
Thoughts: This is another event that proves me somehow that the more quiet the market the more significant the moves and the more accurate the trades are.
31/5 02:30 JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=1.9 F=1.9 P=1.6 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 14 | 6 Longs | 8 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened at : Longs=03:00-06:00am | Shorts=03:00-04:00am
Accuracy:Yes somehow, but the events (Im writing down) didnt affect that much and one reason for that is that most of my trades were opened at 02:00-03:00 ! So its just the fact that we have pullback and the reason is not the other events.
Events:
In the photo we see the Reef coin.
31/5 12:00pm EUR a) “Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.9 F=2.7 P=2.7 | Downtrend
b) ”CPI Flash Estimate y/y” R=2.6 F=2.5 P=2.4 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 13 | 10 Longs | 3 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=13:00pm | Shorts= 13:00 (2), 18:00 (1)
Accuracy:No.That put me into thoughts because It had to technically be more significant because we have another CPI event in the same day but in other hour with the same Downtrend opportunity.
Events that might affected that move:
As we see, from the photo (Link coin), we have a pullback and the we have after the event up moves and this happened because of all the event I mentioned above in the events section.
In the photo we see the chart of Link coin.
4/6 09:30am CHF “CPI m/m” R=0.3 F=0.3 P=0.3 | Continuation
Continuation= Current trend is : Downtrend. = Expecting downtrend moves
Total trades: 22 | 13 Longs | 9 Shorts
Losers: 5 all shorts | Grt at 12:00, Ton at 11:00, Ethereum at 12:00, STPT at 12:00, Avax at 12:00
Best trades: 1 long, Ton at 11:00
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=10:00-11:00 | Shorts= 11:00-12:00
Accuracy:No.
Events:
Some long positions were taken at the time this event took place.Thats why one amount of the long positions were because of this event.
In the photo we see the 1000pepe coin and the 2 trades I took.
12/6 04:30am CNY “CPI y/y” R=0.3 F=0.4 P=0.3 | Continuation
Continuation= In our case based on the current trend = Green candles/ up moves from a pullback
Total trades: 13 | 13 Longs | 0 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 3 all longs | Grt at 05:00am, Ton at 06:00am and 1000pepe at 05:00am
Most trades were opened at: Longs= 05:00am | Shorts= X
Accuracy: Yes we have.Also accuracy in the best trades.
Events that might affected that:
In the photo owe see the chart of the STPT coin.
12/6 15:30pm USD a) “Core CPI m/m” R=0.2 F=0.3 P=0.3 | Uptrend
b) “CPI m/m” R=0.0 F=0.1 P=0.3 | Uptrend
c) “CPI y/y“ R=3.3 F=3.4 P=3.4 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 13 | 10 Longs | 3 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 3 | 2 shorts= Reef at 05:00am and 1000pepe at 22:00pm | 1 long=Ton at 16:00pm
Most trades were opened at: Longs=16:0017:00pm | Shorts=22:00pm (2), 05:00am (1)
Accuracy:Yes, but no in the best trades
Events that might affected that:
The continuation=Downtrend chance= 3 downtrend opportunities out of these 4 events
In the photo we see the Ethereum coin and we see how the market moves
19/6 09:00am GBP “CPI y/y” R=2.0 F=2.0 P=2.3 | Uptrend
Uptrend opportunity
Total trades: 18 | 6 Longs | 12 Shorts
Losers: 6 | 4 shorts=Avax at 14:00 , Link at 11:00 , 2 from Ethereum 11:00 and 17:00 | 2 longs= Avax 20:00 and Grt 10:00
Best trades: 1 long , STPT at 13:00
Most trades were opened at: Longs=10:00 | Shorts= 10:00-11:00 and 14:00
Accuracy: No But in the photo we see why we had more short trades.The market has up moves in general.
Events that might affected that: None
In the photo we see the chart of the Ankr coin.
25/6 15:30pm CAD a) “CPI m/m” R=0.6 F=0.3 P=0.5 | Downtrend
b) “Median CPI y/y” R=2.8 F=2.6 P=2.6 | Downtrend
c) “Trimmed CPI y/y” R=2.9 F=2.8 P=2.9 | Continuation
d) “Common CPI y/y” R=2.4 F=2.6 P=2.6 | Uptrend
Downtrend chance.
Total trades: 14 | 8 Longs | 6 Shorts
Losers: 2 shorts. STPT at 19:00pm and Ton at 16:00pm
Best trades: 2 longs | Avax at 17:00pm and 1000pepe at 16:00pm
Most trades were opened at: Longs=16:00-17:00 | Shorts=16:00
Accuracy:No
Events that might affected that:
The events might affected the market and why we have long positions. Also these events took place in the same hour like the trades.What we see in photo is that the trend is going up! So the CPI have no impact compared to these ones.
In the photo we see the Avax coin.
26/6 04:30am AUD “CPI y/y” R=4.0 F=3.5 P=3.6 | Downtrend
Downtrend chance
Total trades: 13 | 3 Longs | 10 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 2 | 1long= Avax at 09:00am | 1 short= 1000pepe at 07:00am
Most trades were opened at: Longs=05::00 (2), 09:00 (1) | Shorts= 06:00- 09:00am
Accuracy:Yes!
Events that might affected that: None in the hours I opened trades.
In the photo we see the chart of 1000pepe coin.
28/6 02:30am JPY “Tokyo Core CPI y/y” R=2.1 F=2.0 P=1.9 | Downtrend
Downtrend opportunity
Total trades: 20 | 4 Longs | 16 Shorts
Losers: 10! | 8 shorts= Grt at 03:00, 2 from Reef at 03:00 and 08:00am, Matic at 03:00, Ethereum at 03:00, Ankr 03:00, Avax 03:00 and Bitcoin at 03:00 | 2 longs= Ethereum at 06:00 and T at 06:00
Best trades: 1 short. 1000pepe at 05:00am
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=03:00am (1), 06:00am (2), 09:00am (1) | Shorts= 03:00am
Accuracy: Yes but we have many short losses.
Events that might affected that:
4 out of 6= Downtrend opportunity! Thats why and they helped the market to go lower.
In the photo we see the chart of STPT coin.
28/6 10:00am EUR “Spanish Flash CPI y/y” R=3.4 F=3.3 P=3.6 | Uptrend
Uptrend chance
Total trades: 15 | 11 Longs | 4 Shorts
Losers: 0
Best trades: 0
Most of the trades were opened at: Longs=11:00-12:00pm | Shorts=around 16:00-19:00pm
Accuracy:Yes!
Other events:
4 out of 5 = Downtrend opportunity! But because most of the trades (longs) opened at 11:00-12:00 and the shorts were opened at the hours these events took place.
In the photo we see the chart of Ankr coin.
Weekly Reviews per months!
The reason I'm making the summary now is just to have a better view on them. After the 4 weeks I will put as well the Monthly outlooks.
In these weekly outlooks I will consume only the dates from the events per week and not the whole titles of each CPI.In the 6-14 slide you can read in details which are the specific events that are happening in these dates.
Another reason Im not doing that (putting the titles of the CPI) is because I will write a bonus analyze where I will put in summary every different type of CPI and I will put from all the data I collected the accuracy, if they are profitable, if the trend formed etc.
The weekly Reviews/Monthly reviews are for to see in summary if its ok to trade based on CPI events and in general if its risky or a good idea to trade.The 13teen coins I backetested for that giving us a better idea because I tested more than 1 or 2 coins.This help up to see better and more clear if its better or not.
With all that being said.Now its time to move to the weekly reviews.
January - 1rst week 1-7 of January | a) 4/1 b) 5/1
-Total trades: 32 | winners:32 | Losers:0 | Longs=12 | Shorts=20 |
-Best trades: 12 in total. = Grt 19.54%, Reef 17.07%, Matic 11,45%, Link 11.95%, T 10.86%, Ankr 15.46%, STPT 17.45%, Avax 12.77%, 1000pepe 12.40%, T 22.46%, STPT 12.54%, Ethw 18.53%
-Low winner rate rtrades: 18 in total. (They are all down of 10%).
-Which one is the best: The a) event.
-Which one of these are accurate: The a) because it has more big winner trades
-Best coins: T (2), STPT (2). | Worst coins: Ethereum (2), Bitcoin (2).
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of January | a) 8/1 b) 9/1 c) 10/1 d) 11/1 e) 12/1
-Total trades: 84 | Winners: 72 | Losers: 12 | Longs= 37 | Shorts= 47 |
-Best trades: 19 in total | Ethereum 21.08%, Avax 25.42%, T 19.96%, Ethw 41.18%, T 15.22%, Ethereum 10.90%, Matic 15.44%, T 24.27%, Avax 18.01%, Ankr 17.61%, STPT 14.82%, Avax 30.20%, 1000pepe 37.31%, Bitcoin 16.36%, Grt 24.33%, T 24.63%, Avax 29.30%, 1000pepe 33.47% , Bitcoin 16.15%,
-Low winner rate trades: 40 in total.
-Which of them are the best events: a) , c) , d) , e)
-Which one of these are accurate: d) and e)
-Best coins: Avax (4), T (4) , 1000pepe (2), Bitcoin (2), Ethereum (2).
-Worst coins:Grt (6), Reef (5), Ton (3), STPT (4), 1000pepe (3), Ethereum (3), Link (3), Avax (3), Bitcoin (3)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
3rd Week - 15-21 of January | a) 16/1 b) 17/1
-Total trades: 28 | Winners: 28 | Losers: 0 | Longs= 16 | Shorts= 12 |
-Best trades: 3 in total | T 28.61%, Ton 14.23%, Ethw 15.31%
-Low winner rate trades: 23 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: b)
-Which one of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: T, Ton, Ethw
-Worst coins: Grt (3), Bitcoin (3), the rest of the coins have around 2
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-31 of January | a) 23/1 b) 26/1 c) 30/1 d) 31/1 e) 31/1 (2)
-Total trades: 84 | Winners: 77 | Losers: 7 | Longs= 36 | Shorts= 49 |
-Best trades: 15 in total | Grt 239.06%, Matic 74.75%, Link 10.45%, Ankr 203.39%, STPT 72.57%, Avax 121.34%, Ethw 129.57%, Grt 229.39%, Matic 75.29%, Avax 112.80%, Bitcoin 85.22%, Link 52.86%, T 10.16%, 1000pepe 14.64%, 1000pepe 12.82%
-Low winner rate trades: 52 in total
-Which of these events are the best: a) and b)
-Which of these are accurate: a) and d)
-Best coins: Grt (2), Matic (2), Link (2), Avax (2), 1000pepe (2)
-Worst coins: Ethereum (4), 1000pepe (3), Bitcoin (8), Link (6), Ankr (5), STPT (4), Ton (4), Matic (4)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
Monthly outlooks:
This is out first monthly outlook , before starting, I have to make clear some of the titles that will follow:
“Demi accurate” = This is a section where I put events with events that have no significant and prevailed amount of trades.In simple words, between long and short positions we have equal number or near to be.In that case, events where I cannot say if we have accuracy or not between the trades and the answer we get from the data of the events (uptrend or downtrend).
Accuracy in general these sectors means if the answer we get from an event (if we can have uptrend/downtrend opportunity) can meet and have accuracy to the positions I opened fromthe bracket system (if the uptrend meet long positions for example or not).This is the “accuracy” I mean.
“Demi profitable” = This is a section where the amount of profits cant be filled in the “Profitable Events” section , nor either to the “Unprofitable events” section.In simple words the number of profits does not belong to the other sections.
Another clarification I have to make is that, the number of losses and winners show a big difference.Meaning we will see a small amount of losses.Dont get distracted by that because in the weekly reviews I already make it clear.The big trades are less and the amount of trades with low winner rate trades are huge.For that reason I cannot include them as losses because simple they are not, they give a small winner rate.But keep in mind that in real life we set a fixed t-p.Most of these trades could be easily get stopped out because they have below 10% winner rate.So in the “Profitable month” section, all of them have “no” because simply , the amount of the big winner trades and between the low winner rate ones, cannot prevailed or fill the “gaps”.
+Again here I will put only the dates and not the whole CPI title because near the end I will separate each type of CPI and compare them if they are profitable, risky etc etc.
In the monthly outlooks we just take a look for the summary of the weekly review and be able to see if from the data generally we are able to trust them on trades/if we have many profits/ etc
Now with all that being said, in The next slide we will see our first Monthly Outlook of January.
Monthly Outlook of January! | 1-31th |
-Profitable month: No
-Total trades: 228 | Winners: 209 | Losers: 19
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 1rst, 2nd and 4rth
-Best trades from all the winners: 49 out of 209 (the rest 160=low winner rate trades)
-Profitable events 5/1, 11/1, 12/1, 23/1
-Unprofitable events4/1, 9/1, 16/1, 17/1 , 30/1, 31/1 (a) , 31/1 (b)
-Demi profitable events:8/1, 10/1, 26/1.
-Accurate events: 5/1, 11/1, 12/1, 23/1, 31/1 (all day)
-Non accurate events:8/1, 9/1, 10/1, 17/1, 26/1, 30/1, 31/1 (02:30am)
-Demi accurate events:4/1, 16/1
*accurate doesn't mean profitable.The position of the trades just meet accuracy between the trend the events are giving us (for an uptrend or downtrend opportunity)
February 1rst Week - 1-7 of February | a) 1/2
-Total trades: 18 | Winners: 16 | Losers: 2 | Longs= 10 | Shorts= 8 |
-Best trades: 2 in total. Link 44.78%, Avax 94.00%.
-Low winner rate trades: 14 in total
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: Avax, Link
-Worst coins:Grt (2), Ethereum (2), Matic (2)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of February | a) 8/2 b) 13/2 c) 13/2 (2) d) 14/2
-Total trades: 62 | Winners: 56 | Losers: 6 | Longs= 32 | Shorts= 31 |
-Best trades:11 in total. STPT 89.06%, Bitcoin 65.81%, STPT 63.28%, Grt 172.59%, Reef 245.35%, Ethereum 50.93%, Matic 49.85%, Ankr 161.34%, STPT 61.21%, 1000pepe 1.697,69% , Bitcoin 45.39%
-Low winner rate trades: 45 in total
-Which of these events are the best: d)
-Which of these are accurate: c)
-Best coins:STPT (3), Bitcoin (2), + 1000pepe is one of the top trades from all the 6 months.
-Worst coins: Reef (3), Ton (4), Ethereum (4), Link (6), Matic (3), Ankr (5), Avax (3).
-What is the trend we have in each event:
3rd Week - 15-21 of February | a) 20/2
-Total trades: 13 | Winners: 13 | Losers: 0 | Longs= 1 | Shorts= 12
-Best trades: None
-Low winner rate trades: 7 in total
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: a)
-Best coins: None
-Worst coins: Matic (2), Grt, Ethereum, T, STPT, Bitcoin
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-29 of February | a) 28/2 b) 29/2 c) 29/2 (2)
-Total trades: 56 | Winners: 51 | Losers: 5 |Longs= 33 | Shorts= 23 |
-Best trades: 6 in total | 1000pepe 452.29%, Bitcoin 29.42%, Reef 166.74%, T 13.46%, Ankr 26.91%, STPT 18.56%
-Low winner rate trades: 33 in total
-Which of these are the best: b)
-Which of these are more accurate: None
-Best coins: 1000pepe, Bitcoin, Reef, T, Ankr, STPT
-Worst coins: Grt (3), Avax (3), T (4), Bitcoin (3).
What is the trend we have in each event:
Monthly Outlook of February! | 1-29nth |
-Profitable month: No
-Total trades: 149 | Winners: 136 | Losers: 13
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 2nd and 4rth
-Best trades from all the winners: 19 out of 149 (the rest 130= low winner rate trades)
-Profitable events: 14/2
-Unprofitable events:1/2, 8/2, 13/2 (09:30am), 13/2 (15:30pm), 20/2, 28/2 , 29/2 (10:00).
-Demi profitable events: 29/2 (all day)
-Accurate events: 13/2 (15:30pm), 14/2, 20/2
-Non accurate events: 8/2, 13/2 (09:30am), 29/2 (all day), 29/2 (10:00am)
-Demi accurate events: 1/2 , 28/2
March 1rst Week - 1-7 of March | a) 1/3 b) 4/3 c) 5/3
-Total trades: 51 | Winners: 45 | Losers: 6 | Longs= 31 | Shorts= 18
-Best trades: 10 in total | Reef 34.90%, 1000pepe 381.95%, Grt 27.39%, 1000pepe 17.90%, Grt 25.08%,
Ton 16.30%, Matic 18.76%, T 26.30%, 1000pepe 14.67%, Ton 16.90%
-Low winner rate trades: 33 in total
-Which of these events are the best: c)
-Which of these are more accurate: a)
-Best coins: Grt (2), 1000pepe (3), Ton (2)
-Worst coins: Bitcoin (3), Ethereum (3), Ethw (3), T (3), Avax (3), Ankr (3), STPT (4) , Link (3)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of March | a) 9/3 b) 12/3
-Total trades: 30 | Winners: 28 | Losers: 2 | Longs= 20 | Shorts= 10
-Best trades: 8 in total. Grt 37.75%, Reef 11.98%, Matic 14.15%, T 11.95%, 1000pepe 19.35%, Reef 71.20%, STPT 12.20%, Avax 37.00%
-Low winner rate trades: 17 in total
-Which of these events are the best: a)
-Which of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: Reef (2)
-Worst coins:Ethw (3), Ethereum (3), Bitcoin (2), Ton (2)
-What is trend we have in each event:
3rd Week - 15-21 of March | a) 19/3 b) 20/3
-Total trades: 33 | Winners: 32 | Losers: 1 | Longs= 20 | Shorts= 13 |
-Best trades: 9 in total. STPT 15.84%, Avax 58.60%, Ton 116.23%, Ethereum 15.55%, Link 19.31%, T 106.65%, STPT 43.48%, 1000pepe 29.73%, Bitcoin 15.10%
-Low winner rate trades: 23 in total
-Which of these events are the best: b)
-Which of these are accurate: both have
-Best coins: STPT (2)
-Worst coins: Avax (3)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-31 of March | a) 22/3 b) 27/3 c) 27/3 (2) d) 29/3
-Total winners: 68 | Winners: 60 | Losers: 8 | Longs= 27 | Shorts= 41
-Best trades:10 in total. Ton 104.05%, Reef 19.34%, Link 40.38%, T 65.85%, Avax 59.60%, Link 38.76%, STPT 56.53%, Avax 54.83%, Matic 48.25%, Avax 55.86%
-Low winner rate trades: 44 in total
-Which of these events are the best: b) and c)
-Which of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: Avax (3), Link (2)
-Worst coins: Reef (4), Ethw (4), Bitcoin (7), Grt (5)
-What is the trend we have in each events:
Monthly Outlook of March! | 1-31th |
-Profitable month: No
-Total trades: 182 | Winners: 165 | Losers: 17
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 4rth
-Best trades from all the winners: 37.The rest are low winner rate trades.
-Profitable events: 5/3, 9/3, 20/3
-Unprofitable events: 1/3, 4/3, 12/3 , 19/3 , 22/3, 29/3
-Demi profitable events:27/3 (02:30am), 27/3 (10:00am)
-Accurate events:1/3, 5/3, 19/3, 20/3, 27/3 (02:30am)
-Non accurate events: 4/3, 9/3, 12/3, 22/3, 29/3
-Demi accurate events: 27/3 (10:00am)
April 1rst week - 1-7 of April | a) 2/4 b) 3/4 c) 4/4
-Total trades: 46 | Winners: 44 | Losers: 2 | Longs= 22 | Shorts= 24
-Best trades: 10 in total. Grt 50.16%, Ton 14.37%, STPT 51.30%, Avax 53.29%, 1000pepe 51.38%, Ethw 17.89%, 1000pepe 12.98%, Ton 52.74%, T 20.99%, Bitcoin 10.39%
-Low winner rate trades: 26 in total.
-Which of these events are the best:a)
-Which of these are accurate: c)
-Best coins: T (2), 1000pepe (1)
-Worst coins: Reef (4), Ethereum (4), Link (3),
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of April | a) 10/4 b) 11/4
-Total trades: 28 | Winners: 28 | Losers: 0 |Longs= 22 | Shorts= 6
-Best trades: 4 in total. | Ton 12.17%, Ethereum 19.85%, T 55.55%, Ankr 55.25%
-Low winner rate trades: 21 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: b)
-Which of these are accurate: b)
-Best coins: Ton, Ankr, Ethereum, T
-Worst coins:Grt (2), Matic (2), Link (2), Ankr (2), STPT (2), Avax (2), Bitcoin (2)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
3rd Week - 15-21 of April | a) 16/4 b) 17/4 c) 17/4 (2)
-Total trades: 45 | Winners: 43 | Losers: 2 | Longs= 5 | Shorts= 40
-Best trades: 1000pepe 12.50%
-Low winner rate trades: 33 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: a) and b)
-Best coins: 1000pepe
-Worst coins: All the coins.
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-31 of April | a) 24/4 b) 26/4 c) 29/4 d) 30/4
-Total trades: 63 | Winners: 58 | Losers: 5 | Longs= 7 | Shorts= 56
-Best trades: 16 in total. | Grt 24.72%, Reef 46.54%, Ankr 11.84%, 1000pepe 21.61%, Bitcoin 14.78%, 1000pepe 23.24%, Grt 15.48%, Reef 16.09%, Ton 16.05%, Ethereum 14.58%, Matic 13.16%, T 15.26%, Ton 11.49%, Ankr 47.89%, Ethw 10.35%, 1000pepe 12.94%
-Low winner rate trades: 32 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: a) , c) and d)
-Which of these are accurate: a) and c)
-Best coins: 1000pepe (3)
-Worst coins: Matic (4), STPT (4), Link (5), Avax (3), Ethereum (3), T (3) and Ethw (2)
-What is the trend we have in each events:
Monthly Outlook of April! | 1-31th |
-Profitable month: No
-Total trades: 182 | Winners: 173 | Losers: 9
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 1rst and 4rth
-Best trades from all the winners: 31 in total. The rest 151 are low winner rate trades
-Profitable events: 2/4, 24/4, 29/4
-Unprofitable events: 3/4 , 10/4, 16/4, 17/4 (01:45am), 17/4 (09:00am), 26/4
-Demi profitable events: 4/4 , 11/4
-Accurate events: 4/4, 11/4, 16/4, 17/4 (01:45am), 24/4, 29/4
-Non accurate events: 2/4, 3/4, 10/4, 17/4 (09:00am), 26/4, 30/4
-Demi accurate events: None
May 1rst Week - 1-7 of May | a) 2/5
-Total trades: 13 | Winners: 13 | Losers: 0 | Longs= 12 | Shorts= 1
-Best trades:12 in total. | Grt 50.23%, Reef 15.32%, Ton.73.79%, Ethereum 10.37%, Matic 12.16%, Link 14.21%, T 10.79%, STPT 21.18%, Avax 21.92%, Ethw 12.18%, 1000pepe 158.21%, Bitcoin 28.91%
-Low winner rate trades: 1
-Which of these events are the best: a)
-Which of these are accurate: No
-Best coins: Grt, Reef, Ton, Ethereum, Matic, Link, T , STPT , Avax, Ethw , 1000pepe and Bitcoin
-Worst coins: Ankr
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of May | a) 11/5
-Total trades: 14 | Winners: 13 | Losers: 1 | Longs= 3 | Shorts= 11
-Best trades: No
-Low winner rate trades: 10 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: a)
-Best coins: X
-Worst coins: Reef, Ton, Ethereum, Matic, Link, T, STPT , Ethw, 1000pepe, Bitcoin
-What is the trend we have in each event:
3rd Week - 15-21 of May | a) 15/5 b) 21/5 c) 22/5
-Total trades: 45 | Winners: 40 | Losers: 5 | Longs= 23 | Shorts= 22
-Best trades: 16 in total.|Grt 23.80%, Reef 21.58%, Ton 12.43%, Ethereum 35.00%, Matic 15.69%, Link 41.28%, T 13.01%, STPT 17.68%, Avax 23.14%, Ethw 22.24%, 1000pepe 13.79%, Bitcoin 12.45%, T 46.02%, 1000pepe 39.64%, STPT 32.42%, Avax 42.71%
-Low winner rate trades: 19 in total.
-Which of these events ar the best: a)
-Which of these are accurate: a)
-Best coins: 1000pepe(2), T (2), STPT (2) ,Avax (2)
-Worst coins:Grt (2), Ankr (3),Matic (2), Ethereum (2), Reef (2) and Ethw (2)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-31 of May | a) 29/5 b) 29/5 (2) c) 30/5 d) 31/5 e) 31/5 (2)
-Total trades: 94 | Winners: 93 | Losers: 1 | Longs= 52 | Shorts= 29
-Best trades: 3 in total. 1000pepe 38.77%, 1000pepe 39.76% , Reef 14.12%
-Low winner rate trades: 72 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: a) and c)
-Which of these are accurate: b) c) and d)
-Best coins:1000pepe (2) and Reef (1)
-Worst coins: All the coins I trade
-What is the trend we have in each event:
Consolidation we have to all events.
Monthly Outlook of the May! | 1-31th |
-Profitable months: No
-Total trades: 166 | Winner: 159 | Losers: 7
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 1rst and 3rd
-Best trades from all the winners: 31 in total. The rest 135 are low winner rate trades.
-Profitable events: 2/5, 15/5
-Unprofitable events: 11/5, 21/5, 22/5, 29/5, 30/5 , 31/5 (02:30am), 31/5 (12:00)
-Demi profitable events: None
-Accurate events:11/5, 15/5, 31/5 (02:30)
-Non accurate events: 2/5, 21/5, 22/5, 29/5, 30/5, 31/5 (12:00)
-Demi accurate events: None
June 1rst Week - 1-7 of June | a) 4/6
-Total trades: 22 | Winners: 17 | Losers: 5 | Longs= 13 | Shorts= 9
-Best trades: 1. Ton 14.86%
-Low winner rate trades: 12 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: Ton
-Worst coins: The rest of the coins I traded | 1000pepe (2), Bitcoin (2) and Link (2)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
2nd Week - 8-14 of June | a) 12/6 b) 12/6 (2)
-Total trades: 26 | Winners: 26 | Losers: 0 | Longs= 23 | Shorts= 3
-Best trades: 6 in total.| Grt 12.46%m Ton 17.70%, 1000pepe 10.60%, Reef 24.30%, Ton 14.57%, 1000pepe 25.93%
-Low winner rate trades: 14 in total.
-Which of these events are the best:a) and b). Both
-Which of these are accurate: b)
-Best coins: 1000pepe (2), Ton (2)
-Worst coins: Ethereum (2), Matic (2), STPT (2), Ethw (2), Bitcoin (2).
-What is the trend we have in each events:
3rd Week - 15-21 of June | a) 19/6
-Total trades: 18 | Winners: 12 | Losers: 6 | Longs= 6 | Shorts= 12
-Best trades: STPT 16.13%
-Low winner rate trades: 11 in total
-Which of these events are the best: None
-Which of these are accurate: None
-Best coins: STPT
-Worst coins: Matic (2)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
4rth Week - 22-30 of June |a) 25/6 b) 26/6 c) 28/6 d) 28/6 (2)
-Total trades: 62 | Winners: 59 | Losers: 3 | Longs= 26 | Shorts= 36
-Best trades:5 in total | Avax 14.04%, 1000pepe 11.84%, Avax 13.12%, 1000pepe 12.53% and 1000pepe 11.65%
-Low winner rate trades: 39 in total.
-Which of these events are the best: a) and b)
-Which of these events are accurate: All are.
-Best coins: 1000pepe (3) and Avax (2)
-Worst coins: Ton (5), Ethereum (3), Ethw(6), Bitcoin (4) and Link (4)
-What is the trend we have in each event:
All events have most of the coins uptrend.
Monthly Outlook of June! | 1-30th |
-Profitable month:No
-Total trades: 128 | Winners: 114 | Losers: 14
-Which week exactly was the most profitable: 2nd and 4rth
-Best trades from all the winners: 13 in total.The rest 115= Low winner rate trades
-Profitable events: None
-Unprofitable events: 4/6, 12/6 (04:30am), 19/6, 25/6, 26/6, 28/6 (02:30am), 28/6 (10:00am)
-Demi profitable events: 12/6 (15:30pm)
-Accurate events: 4/6, 12/6 (04:30am), 12/6 (15:30pm), 25/6, 26/6, 28/6 (10:00am)
-Non accurate events: 19/6
-Demi accurate events: None
WHEN IT FORMS!?
Until recently, I remained in the accuracy between the positions and the “answer” each event giving me (uptrend or downtrend possibility).
Now, I will show you if we have accuracy between what each event tell us and IF the Market actually forms the trend.When it forms and IF we have this form in the market. (for example if one event tell us we have chance for an uptrend move, then we see if this uptrend forms, when and if in the end we have this trend.)
The reason I decided to make it separately in summary it's because as a theme is very important and it has to be done separately for a better view.
In the next slides, I will write specifically for every different event and coin I traded what is happening by writing the dates exactly we have up/down moves (depend on what each event tell us).
The “Nope” stands for not having this trend.Meaning , if for example one event giving us signals for an uptrend opportunity, if I write “nope” then this means we had downtrend moves (the opposite).So like that it's easy to see we didn't had accuracy.The dates simply means that we did had this trend.
In the dates I’m writing when it starts and when it ends.So we can be able to see if it last hours/days/weeks/months.
Also we can see if it starts hours later/days later, which it something really interesting to see.
*IMPORTANT: The “Uptrend/Downtrend” I'm writing next to the date of the event, is based on what the EVENT telling us! NOT what the market telling us!
Again, I'm writing the dates n not the tittle of the events because this is something Ill do in summary, meaning putting all the same types of CPI and make a further analyze.
January: 4/1 All day | Downtrend
In that simple way we see when it starts and ends the downtrend moves or trend if it last longer.
The downtrend I'm writing next to the date is what the data between the “Actual” and the “Previous” are giving us.So the dates are the period we actually have a downtrend or down moves.
In this way we can see and the next ones that will follow.
For example the 4) Ethereum, the downtrend from what the events shows us actually formed in the market.And the downtrend moves end at 8/1.
So by explaining that, now you can understand what these data means.
5/1 12:00 | Downtrend
8/1 09:30 | Downtrend
9/1 01:30am | Uptrend
10/1 02:30am | Uptrend
11/1 15:30pm | Downtrend
12/1 03:30am | Uptrend
16/1 15:30pm | Downtrend
17/1 09:00am | Downtrend
23/1 11:45am | Uptrend
26/1 01:30am | Uptrend
30/1 10:00am | Downtrend
31/1 All day | Downtrend
31/1 02:30am | Uptrend
1/2 12:00 | Uptrend
8/2 03:30am | Uptrend
13/2 09:30am | Downtrend
13/2 15:30pm | Downtrend
14/2 09:30am | Uptrend
20/2 15:30pm | Downtrend
28/2 02:30am | Downtrend
29/2 All day | Downtrend
29/2 10:00am |Uptrend
1/3 12:00pm | Uptrend
4/3 09:30am | Downtrend
5/3 01:30am | Downtrend
9/3 03:30am | Downtrend
12/3 14:30pm | Downtrend
19/3 14:30pm | Downtrend
20/3 09:00am | Uptrend
22/3 01:30am | Downtrend
27/3 02:30am | Downtrend
27/3 10:00am | Downtrend
29/3 01:30am | Uptrend
2/4 All day | Downtrend
3/4 12:30pm | Uptrend
4/4 09:30am | Uptrend
10/4 15:30pm | Uptrend
11/4 04:30am | Uptrend
16/4 15:30pm | Downtrend
17/4 01:45am | Downtrend
17/4 09:00am | Uptrend
24/4 04:30am | Downtrend
26/4 02:30am | Uptrend
29/4 All day | Downtrend
30/4 10:00pm | Uptrend
2/5 09:30am | Downtrend
11/5 04:30am | Downtrend
15/5 15:30pm | Uptrend
21/5 15;30pm | Uptrend
22/5 09:00am | Uptrend
29/5 04:30am | Downtrend
29/5 All day | Uptrend
30/5 10:0am | Uptrend
31/5 02:30am | Downtrend
31/5 12:00pm | Downtrend
4/6 09:30am | Uptrend
12/6 04:30am | Uptrend
12/6 15:30pm | Uptrend
19/6 09:00am | Downtrend
25/6 15:30pm | Downtrend
26/6 04:30am | Downtrend
28/6 02:30am | Downtrend
28/6 10:00am | Uptrend
+Bonus: Separating the types of CPI we have and see if any of them are better or not, accurate or not, profitable or not.
In the following slides I will write down all the specific CPI events (titles/from specific currencies etc) in summary. I will put them all together and see in they are good or not.
-The “accurate” I will write in the following slides mean=The accuracy between the positions and the answer each event giving us (uptrend/downtrend)
-Demi accurate= We have equal or near equal number of positions, where I cant put it in the “Accurate” or in the “Non accurate” category.
-”Demi Profitable”= Where the number of profits cant fit in the “Profitable” or the “Unprofitable” category.So thats why I created this category.
-The dates Im writing beside every event, is the duration, how long or not it formes the trend based on the event.It is not standard for every trade, I took the outcome from the majority from every coin.But to see especially the duration of how and when it forms, you have to visit the previous slides where I'm writing specifically and in details when it forms.
All the CPI types (at least those Im testing that have high impact from the Forex Factory calendar) are 11.
104 events where are consist by 11 type of CPI events.
1| All day - EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m All the dates from these CPI’s
2| 09:30am - CHF - CPI m/m
6 months, 6 events of this type of CPI.
2 out of 6 are accurate. 3 out of 6 are profitable.
We see some of them did not form the trend immediately
Its not good to trade in this CPI type.It good to use it as an indicator to see where the market will move because the event did what it promised, the trend formed in the market.
We have impact based on if the trend forms but we dont have impact based on the accuracy between trades, which this sounds ambiguous . Someone can easily think, how is that possible to have impact where the trend indeed form in the market but to not have accuracy at the same time between the positions from the trades?
Well, again I will remind I use the bracket system , where most of the trades are opened in the next or around the hours after the events took place.Most of the events , no matter the type of CPI’s we have, start to form the trend or the moves after some hours or even days (1 to 3).So that's a reason why Im saying we have impact but not accuracy between the trades.Patience is key.Furthermore, thats why im saying it's better to use this type of CPI as an indicator because the trend or moves (up/down) forms.But to trade this event it's not a good idea.
Keep in mind why in the following slides I might write “we have impact on the trend because it forms” and “we don't have accuracy between the trades” at the same time.It's because of the reason I explained above.
3| 12:00pm - EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y (these 2 always come together)
We notice, the rest 2 events gave almost event time downtrend opportunity, this one on the other have gives Uptrend chance.We also see most of them start at the beginning of the month and in the end we have them at the end of the month.
2 out of 6= Accurate | 2 out of 6 = Profitable.
The trend holds 3 days around to most of them.We have impact because the trend forms from what events telling us.But again we dont have impact between the trades.So once again, it is not a good idea to trade based on this event , but its good to use it as an indicator.
4| 01:30am - JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Most of them giving downtrend opportunity.
3 out of 8= Accuracy | 1 out of 8= Profitable !!!!!!!!!
It forms yes, some of them holds the trend/moves around 2 days.
Impact between the trend n the event= yes!
Impact based on the profit n accuracy from the positions of the trades= No!
What is good is to NOT open trades and risk your money over this CPI type.Just use it as an indicator.
5| 02:00 - AUD - CPI y/y or q/q (recessions)
2+2 demi out of 7= Accurate | 3 out of 7 = Profitable |
Some of them hold the trend 2-4 days and some at 1/7 .
The part I wrote “Most of them DID NOT form the trend the event gave us” is because if you visit again the slides where I analyzed if the trend FORMS in the market based on the event, these events had “Nope” from the majority of the coins I trades.Meaning we had the opposite trend and the trend the event gave us did not formed.
5-6 events out of 104 had many “nope” as majority from all the coins.And 2 of them hit at this type of CPI.
What is good here is NOT to open trades based on this event. It's not a wise move to write that we do have impact, 2 out of them didnt form the trend or moves at least at all.
6| 15:30pm - USD - Core CPI m/m
- CPI m/m
- CPI y/y (these come all together)
Most of them had downtrend chance.
4 out of 6= Accurate | 3 out of 6= Profitable
From all the events 2 out of the profitable ones gave us uptrend possibility.
Impact= Demi situation.I cant say we do have.
What good is to not open trades only based on this event.But it is good to use it as an indicator or where the market might go based on these events.
7| 03:30am - CNY - CPI y/y
4 out of 6= Accurate (rare) | 3 out of 6= profitable
Impact= yes. Impact based on accuracy= yes !
It is good to NOT open trades based on this type of CPI event. But it it good to use it as an indicator.The trend holds days.If we have patience and wait for the trend to form, then it might turn out profitable.But again, its good to use it as an indicator and then trade only based on your specific system.
8| 15:30pm - CAD - CPI m/m
- Median CPI y/y
- Trimmed CPI y/y
- Common CPI y/y (they all come together)
5 out of 6 = Accurate (rare) | 0 profitable. They all were low winner rate trades.
Impact = yes the market forms and we do have accuracy based on the trades.
But, it is not good to open trades (especially to this one ) based on the CPI but it's good to use it as an indicator.
9| 09:00am - GBP - CPI y/y
3 out of 6= Accurate. | 2 out of 6= profitable
The trend holds many days.
We had impact.But its not good to trades based on CPI’s . Use it as an indicator.
10| 11:45am - NZD - CPI q/q
In this event, we had only 2!
Well, because we have 2 events , I don't have many info so I can't have standard data that shows me if we have impact, accuracy or a profitable event.
But with 2 only events: 2 out of 2= Accurate | 1 out of 2 = Profitable
No comments about if we have impact.This event is better only to be taken as an indicator because both of them form the trend.The 1 lasts months and the other just 1 day.
11| 10:00am - EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
1+1 Demi out of 5 = Accurate | 1 demi out of 5 = profitable
Impact= It forms, 2-3D 1 last 1 week and 1 months.
Impact based on trades or profits= nope.
Now, I will put and see if all the accurate events are coming specific from some months. We have 11 type of CPI’s, I will put together for each month all types of CPI n see if we have accuracy.Then in another category I will create the same to see if they are profitable.
From all the 11 CPI months, which of them each month are ACCURATE :
January=7 out of 11 were accurate.
February=5 out of 11
March=7 out of 11
April=6 out of 11
May=3 out of 11
June=7 out of 11
So we see from each month , the number of all types that have accuracy.
Accurate months=
With the same way now, we will see which of these months are more profitable.
The 3 out of 11 CPI events.
January=7 out of 11
February=2 out of 11
March=5 out of 11
April=6 out of 11
May=2 out of 11
June=2 out of 11
Here, the numbers are clearly lower.This was something I expected because each type wasn't a good idea to trade and risk .
Most “profitable” months:
From all the data I collected.I recognize that you cannot rely on any CPI event , no matter the type.Its simple not a good idea to open trades BASED on this event, even though the paradox is that they do form lead the market.99 at least out of 104 formed the trend or at lead a small move in the market because of the CPI event.But most of the times what we need to have is patience.
Which types of them SOMEHOW are better compared to the others are:
The type : 5 till 8 and the 11.
But of course what is good to remind is that, obviously, each type and especially the US for example, is one of the most important ones in general.Because in our instance the US allocates the most money and affects more the market with everything they do.The same goes with the Europe and so on.The outcome doesn't degrade their importance, but at the same time you cannot rely on them based on the data I collected.
CONCLUSION
CPI is one of the most IMPACTFUL events.They lead the market and “work” as a catalyst.
But, based on the bracket system, it is NOT a good idea to open trades, at least with the bracket system because the trades usually are opened in the next hours after the event took place.
Talking based on this event, it is NOT a good idea to trade , even though the trend FORMS ! ( but most of the times after some hours and some days after a day of 3 which this is oneof the MAIN reasons why it didn't worked out.
We do not have accuracy between the positions and most of the times this is what cause the trades to become low winner rate. We also don't have by that big winner rate trades.
However, I leave a possibility that the best trades can turn (at least) more (but not to be the majority of the low winner rate trades) if perhaps we applied the bracket system some fixed hours or maybe a day LATER after the CPI event taking place.Because like I said many times, indeed we have the trend or a little move up/down that forms (depends on what each event giving us) , but it is a little bit slow.
Furthermore, a reason why it is NOT good to open trades based on CPI is because I like mentioned many times and I believe from what you read all these times, is that the majority of the trades are low winner rates.
Why this matter? Because in every analysis for each of 104 events of CPI, in every coin I wrote down and the % we can win.The majority are BELOW 10%, most of the times not event around 10% (not near 10%)
In real life we trade with a fixed profit, so we can understand that most of these trades can easily become LOSERS. You may see we dont have many losses, but this doesn't mean that the low winner rates cant turn out as losses.This is also a reason why Im putting emphasis and depth to write again and again about accuracy between the positions and if they are profitable.
(Continue)
To open trade give us a NEGATIVE EV action. The risk to lose your money is high.
What is mature is to wait some hours or days and ONCE the trend is formed, then to open a trade.But again, this is what you have to test alone, as this scenario analysis is different and only looks what the bracket system gives, but feel free to take a further step and with this analysis to find and discover other ways to turn this out profitable, by looking the days most of the charts of the coins form the trend/moves (big or small)
The data is here, all you need is to use another methods.You can even test by looking at the section where I wrote the dates and hours of where the market forms the trend and see if we can have more profits.
You can try in a bigger timeframe, or to use another system , or even the same bracket system, but with some FIXED hours AFTER the event taking place like I said before.
This is also what I will do in future with an additional edition that connects this analysis with another one, where I will just test them after some fixed hours to see if the data turn out different or more positive.This is what I also challenge you to do!
(Continue)
The most active months (because as we all know from the end of April till the summer months the market tend to be non active, more quiet) we see that yes, we do have more big winner rate trades, but this doesn't mean that the low winner rate trades become less.They are increased as well.
Other reasons that might affected that:
-Other events
-NYSE open (mainly) at 16:00pm | Japan stock market also in my time zone opens at 03:00am which these hours we have some events, London’s where it opens at 10:00am-18:00pm (UTC +3:00 to all the places)
Now, from all the 104 events, the following ones I write are the ones that didn't Formed (where I had many “Nope” in the Form area of the analysis. (slide from 178-242) :
Now to answer all the questions based on my assumption:
-It has big impact
-It is far one of the most powerful events
-It can boost or reverse a trend (but to start form it needs some hours or 1-3 days)
-Its not safe to open trades (at least with the bracket system) based on this event
-It forms indeed based on the data the event giving us.
-Some of them have some differences but in the end none of them are good to trade
Personal thoughts: When I first began the analysis, I knew it will be a long one as it took me more than a 1,5 month to complete.Each day I spend minimum 7 hours, sometimes I felt like it could never end, but I never said that in a exhausted way. <3
I loved all the process because I knew that each info will clear my sight and will give me more knowledge to the Crypto Markets, so I could be better and soon.. more and more profitable.I could make more wise choices and I could be 1% generally more professional.And indeed that happened.
Dare to work hard.In the end only better you can become.Also you'll notice that in the end you'll have more specialized questions will pop up and will make you dive into with more depth.
If you are at the beginning then I would like to encourage you by reminding you that everything starts from the will.When you put a consistent work, then you start becoming better and better.This is what I realized the last 2 years.And this is something that I specialized in my path in TRW the last 8 months.
I hope yall to find my analysis interesting or eye-opening.
Fin.