The War in Ukraine:�Prospects for Peace

Olympia World Affairs Council

April 17, 2025

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Frederick Michael Lorenz JD, LLM

Senior Peace Fellow

Public International Law and Policy Group

rlorenz@pilpg.com

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��Vast destruction and suffering in Europe �on a scale not seen since Worle War II.��Over 3.5 million people have been internally displaced, and over 6.8 million have fled Ukraine as refugees. �

Daily reports and analysis from the

Institute For the Study of War

Can be found here

Over 40,000 civilian casualties have been reported, with estimates for total deaths, including soldiers and civilians, approaching 1 million. 

��Some Lessons from Bosnia and Kosovo

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• What might a ceasefire look like?
• How can the forces be separated?
• What type of international monitoring?
• How to deal with violations?
• Lorenz article can be found here

Zone of Separation in Bosnia��

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The Dayton Agreement in 1995 declared a zone of separation spanning 2 kilometers on both sides of the Boundary Line making a zone 4 kilometers in total. The Boundary Line was established mostly along the military frontlines as they were at the time of the Dayton negotiations.

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At its peak, NATO IFOR was composed of 60,000 troops drawn from Allied and partner countries, including from Russia. IFOR operated under Chapter

VII of the United Nations Charter, deriving its

mandate from the UN Security Council.

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But Ukraine is roughly twelve times larger than Bosnia and Russia will certainly not permit a NATO peacekeeping force with full enforcement powers.

Russia’s Priorities in a Ceasefire �

PILPG“RED TEAM INITIATIVE”

Released in February 2023

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Purpose: Analize Russian priorities, strategies, and interests when negotiating a ceasefire with Ukraine to better prepare Ukraine for negotiations. It can be accessed here

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• Solidify Russia’s Territorial Acquisitions
• Prevent Ukraine’s Access to Europe and NATO
• Rehabilitate Russia’s Image as a Global Superpower
• Erode the West’s Support of Ukraine
• Allow Russia’s Economy to Recover and Prevent Instability
• Avoid Any Form of Reparation or Justice

Possible Phased Ceasefire Agreement�Lorenz article can be found here�

• The initial agreement might provide three stages of about 45 days each.
• Phase 1 could commence after an agreement for cessation of hostilities, and during that time, the preliminary boundary lines would be established, and remote monitoring would begin.
• Phase 2 could provide a deadline for the withdrawal of the military forces of Russia and Ukraine from the newly established zone of separation.
• Phase 3 could provide for the deployment of the multinational force and the commencement of monitoring and other activities described in the ceasefire agreement. 

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Ukraine Security Guarantee

• Would this be sufficient for Ukraine in a peace agreement?

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Russia will

“refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the signatories…. and undertake that none of their weapons will ever be used against the signatories, except in cases of self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.”

This was part of the “Budapest Memorandum” in 1994.

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Prospects for Ceasefire in Ukraine

• Central Task: Establish an organizational framework that includes military, civilian, and humanitarian tasks, as well as a reconstruction plan.
• Designation of boundaries, separation of forces, verification, and monitoring of zones will be critical in the short term.
• New technologies may provide options that were not available in previous conflict areas.
• A well-drafted ceasefire agreement can play a critical role in establishing a durable cessation of war.

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Come gather 'round people wherever you roam�And admit that the waters around you have grown�And accept it that soon you'll be drenched to the bone�If your time to you is worth savin�You better start swimmin’ Or you'll sink like a stone�For the times they are a-changin'