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Today’s Agenda

An Introduction to Systems Thinking

Root Cause Analysis

Assumptions Mapping

How to write great “How Might We?” statements

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Our Approach to Facilitation & Participation

We like participation

Maintain confidentiality

Let’s make this fun

Be generous with feedback and contributions

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What is Systems Thinking?

Systems Thinking is the process of looking at systems and unpacking their components and interactions.

Systems Thinking requires looking at the formal and informal structures that surround the challenges you seek to address.

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How we strategize:

Focus on one point of view.

Assume that humans make rational decisions with little errors or bias

Ignore informal structures

Tend to be linear in thinking (problem + solution = success!)

Measure of success set in stone: Failure is not a desirable outcome

YOU ARE ALREADY APPLYING A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE!

How things end up:

Diverse perspectives and voices

Human motivations are not always logical, we can be emotional and irrational

Working within informal structures

Iterative, prototyping, failure as a learning opportunity, and building back better (flexible indicators)

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COMPLICATED

COMPLEX

Complicated Systems

Requires a high degree of training to understand specialty
Variables can be understood, but they tend to have a number of dependent relationships
You can identify the causes and effects

Complex Systems

Requires connecting to stakeholders to collect a variety of perspectives
Relationship between causes and effects cannot be known in advance

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How do you solve a problem?

Simple

Find the “correct” answer based on an existing process or procedure.

Complicated

There may be several possible answers. Bring in the experts.

Complex

The answer may not be knowable. Collaborate & experiment for patterns and possible solutions to emerge.

Chaotic

Impossible to predict. Respond rapidly and unpack later.

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COMPLEX

CHALLENGES

(X)

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{X}

(X)

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What does a system look like?

Plans for regular supplies not in place

PEOPLE

Governance

Information

Medicines and Technologies

Human Resources

Service Delivery

Finance

Drug and supplies stock-outs at health facilities

Lack of motivation

Staff frustration due to stock-outs

Stock-outs

Reduced access to healthcare services

Increase in out-of-pocket spending on supplies

Adherence problems; low perceived quality of care

Information about stock outs not processed timely

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WHEN FORMULATING THE SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON, CONSIDER…

Find diverse viewpoints:

Understanding the world you work in can provide a significant competitive edge, as you can then truly innovate with different users in mind

What is the problem you’re trying to address? What kind of future are you creating? How is tech impacting it?

Map out your ecosystem:

No company works in a void. What larger systems are you a part of and what are the flows of resources, thoughts, activities, emotions and/or people that you rely on to succeed?

Predict and adapt:

If the relationships in the system change, what happens to your company? What happens if certain connections or resource flows are strengthened or weakened?

Public and

private-sector

investments

Recent

Advancements

in Tech

Policies

Recent

Advancements

in Tech

Map out your ecosystem:

No company works in a void. What larger systems are you a part of and what are the flows of resources, thoughts, activities, emotions and/or people that you rely on to succeed?

Predict and adapt:

If the relationships in the system change, what happens to your company? What happens if certain connections or resource flows are strengthened or weakened?

Public and

private-sector

investments

TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM

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ECONOMIC Production, resource allocation, distribution of goods and services Government policies (taxes, incentives, etc.) Local and International economy Legal (cars) and illegal (drugs) Formal (job market) and informal (marriage market, informal job market) Urban Economy and Rural Economy Foreign direct Investment and Remittance.
LEGAL Local to international laws Topic areas (Criminal law, traffic law, martial law) Case law, statutory law, laws of tradition Constitution, Legislation, law enforcement, law interpretation Human Rights, Accountability & Transparency Other relevant actors/elements can include: police, politicians, judges, scholars, court proceedings and decisions, legal arguments, ways of implementing laws, etc.
EDUCATION Formal (Kindergarten, schools, universities, madrasa, vocational institutes ) and informal (parenting, hobbies, informal learnings) Public and private schooling system; NGOs and interest groups Education policies, Teacher training facilities Relevant elements can include: acknowledged professions, curricula, certifications, preference for certain types of knowledge and skills, people’s willingness and ability to learn, research opportunities

WHEN FORMULATING THE SYSTEM TO FOCUS ON, CONSIDER…

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Branches & Leaves = Impact or Consequences

Trunk = The Big Problem

Roots = System Level Root Causes

ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS

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Example

Urban Infrastructure Systems: Encroachment of the natural drainage channels in Dhaka

Waste Disposal System: Clogging of existing drainage due to disposal of wastes into roads

Water & Sewer Systems: Inadequate capacity of drains and lack of maintenance

Water pollution and waterborne diseases

Damage of roads and other infrastructures

Disruption of traffic and normal life

Urban infrastructure and planning systems: Urban areas with limited green space. Ground doesn’t absorb water under cement & asphalt

The Big Problem: Urban Flooding in Dhaka

Damage of trees and vegetation

Climate systems: Increased flashed flooding, intensity of storms, and reduced time between storms

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Problem Tree Exercise

[Consequence]

[The Big Problem]

[Root Cause]

[Consequence]

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Checklist for Your Root Cause Analysis

BIG PROBLEM	CONSEQUENCES	ROOT CAUSES
Is your Big Problem formulated as a negative statement? Did you avoid “need” / “should” or similar, to not embed a solution? Have you captured the geographical scope of the Big Problem? Does your Big Problem statement include statistical data supporting your statement? Can your Big Problem statement be easily reversed into a Big Vision by using positive formulation and does it sound right to you as well?	Have you considered different types of consequences - social, political, economic etc.? Would they be convincing for key stakeholders who are able to influence the Big Problem? Do your statements include statistical data? Check your logic! Is each of the consequences truly caused by the big problem? If you reversed the consequences, could they be measurable impacts of your your big vision statement?	Do your root cause statements capture systems where the root cause is present? Have you considered any non-obvious systems as well? Do your root cause statements included geographical scope? Are your root cause statements supporting by statistical data? Have you selected and marked 1-3 root cause systems that you will focus on?

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What Type of Problem Do You Have?

Is each effect connected to a single cause?

Simple

Complicated

2. Are there many causes for an effect?

Complex

3. Is it unclear what is causing the effect you want to address?

Chaotic

4. Is there an active crisis where actors have different information, and active pain is experienced?

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Simple & Complicated Problems? 5 Whys

What is happening?

My boss is mad at me

Why is that?

Solution

Actionable!!

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Simple & Complicated Problems? 5 Whys

My boss is mad at me

Why is that?

Solution

Actionable!!

What is happening?

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I was late this morning

My alarm didn’t go off

Phone was dead

Keep forgetting to charge

Set reminder at 10 PM every night to plug in phone

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THE 5 WHYs IN REAL LIFE… MORE LIKE THE 2 WHYs?

5 is not a magic number!
It won’t always be linear
Stop at actionable underlying causes, but don’t avoid complexity

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Water Drainage System: Inadequate capacity of drains and lack of maintenance of the drainage infrastructure

7 gov’t departments manage sewage, canals, and pumps and they don’t work together!

No incentive to work together. Budget comes from different pots and they report to different leaders.

No protocols for clean up. Responsibilities for maintenance are unclear.

Why?

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Waste Disposal System: Clogging of existing drainage is a regular phenomenon because of disposal of wastes into roads

Climate systems: Increased flashed flooding, intensity of storms, and reduced time between storms

There is no regular waste pick up

It’s an acceptable behavior to dispose of waste in road

???????

WHY IS THERE NO REGULAR WASTE PICKUP?

There are no trash receptacles in public areas of the city

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WHAT TYPE OF PROBLEMS DO YOU HAVE?

COMPLICATED

COMPLEX

CHAOTIC

Water Drainage System: Inadequate capacity of drains and lack of maintenance of drainage infrastructure

Waste Disposal System: Clogging of existing drainage is a regular phenomenon because of disposal of wastes into roads

Heavy rains and flash flooding

Install more public waste receptacles

Incentivize maintenance coordination between departments

Influence behavior change and attitudes around waste disposal

Increase frequency of wasted pick up

SIMPLE

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Let’s Practice!

Why is that?

Solution

Actionable!!

What is happening?

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Let’s Practice

Where did you get stumped?
Who do you need to talk to in order to feel confident about your 5 Whys?
Which of your 5 Whys was actionable?
What assumptions are you making about your Whys?

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Let’s Practice: What type of problems do you have?

COMPLICATED

COMPLEX

CHAOTIC

The effect is connected to a single cause.

There many causes for an effect.

We don’t know all of the causes.

There is an active crisis where actors have different information and active pain is experienced.

SIMPLE

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Assumptions

Uncertain

Certain

Unimportant

Important

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What Type of Impact Is Happening?

TYPES OF IMPACT	DEFINITION	WHAT DO KEY METRICS LOOK LIKE?
Direct Service	Addressing the immediate needs of specific individual or community	Reach (width) # of people that benefit from these outcomes how representative those people are of the target population Outcomes (depth) % increase in income % decrease in infant mortality
Scaling Direct Service	Solving a social problem at a region or nationwide level	The same questions apply as in direct service, but also– How many cities or regions do you cover? What is your growth rate? # of organizations that replicate your work
System Change	Tackling a root cause for a social problem, in such a way that it changes the way the system operates	Are you shifting an element of the system? Does the system have different resources available? Are there more or different people participating in the system? Have important relationships changed, e.g from hierarchical to participatory? Are there new rules in place, e.g policy changes such as drafting legislation, providing testimony, organizing citizen action, or establishing new standards?
System Change - Mindset Shift	A powerful type of System Change, as new ways of thinking lead to new systems, structures, rules, etc. that are more aligned with the new thinking	Are new norms being created in multiple parts of society, such as across many types of institutions? Before vs. after shifts in attitudes or intentions

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Bring It All Together

Root Cause/Problem	Type of problem	Key Assumptions?	Type of Impact	How might we?
Government departments are not incentivized to not collaborate	Complex		Systems change	How might incentivize departments to collaborate?
People feel it’s ok to throw trash	Complicated	All people feel similarly about waste disposal	Mindest shit	How might we shift attitudes about waste disposal?
We don’t have enough labor	Simple	We have enough trucks	Direct service	How might we create more jobs for sanitation workers?

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How to Write “How Might We?” Questions �

A good “How Might We?” Will be:

Concise (1 sentence)
Broad enough that it can generate a wide range of outcomes
Narrow enough that the entire team understands the problem
Actionable enough to generate ideas for solutions

“How Might We?” Statements:

Shift the focus from a negative (problem) to a positive (opportunity)
Phrase the prompt as a question to help people think in terms of answers
Facilitate rapid brainstorming by creating focused, but open-ended, prompts

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REFLECTION: HOW MIGHT WE?

Root Cause/Problem	Type of problem	Type of Impact	How might we?
Government departments are separate	Complex?	Systems change	How might we connect two Government departments to share research?

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Suggested Team Activities

Try a quick 5 Whys activity around complex systems
Mapping your root causes: Are they simple, complicated, complex, or chaotic?
List your assumptions from your Root Cause Analysis or your 5 Whys

What are 1-3 assumptions that are uncertain and critical?
How can you test these assumptions?

Identify your potential impact categories and write “How might we?” questions for some of your identified root causes

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