Commuter Rail Systems Subcommittee: AP065(5)�Wednesday, January 10, 2024 | 10:15 am - 12:00 pm �Independence Salon C (M4), Marriott Marquis, Washington DC����� �

103^rd Annual Meeting of the

Transportation Research Board

Washington DC

FINAL PROGRAM

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SAFETY BRIEFING

Emergency Procedures for Marriott Marquis

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In an emergency, dial 202-824-9667 (or 59667 on a house phone) to reach the Marriott Marquis’ security department. Do not call 911 .

Have an exit plan. Please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the route to the nearest exit from this room.

If an alarm sounds, evacuate the building. The escalators located in the center of each floor can be used to access the main lobby and exits. Additional stairs are located behind the elevators at each end of the main hallway on each level.

In case of evacuation, gather on the lawn of the Apple Store, across the street from the main entrance to the Convention Center.

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CODE OF �CONDUCT

Agenda

Subcommittee Management

Discussion Topics

Research Priorities

Subcommittee Management

• Mission and Scope
• Members and Friends
• Volunteers
• Other

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Subcommittee Mission and Scope

• Mission: To advance the efficiency and effectiveness of commuter rail with research on the social, economic, technological, and regulatory factors affecting the urban public transportation applications of passenger trains on the conventional railroad network.

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• Scope: The subcommittee is concerned with public transportation applications for urban passenger trains using tracks shared with the national conventional railroad system. Fields of exploration relate to operations, economics, technology, regulation, and implementation.

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Subcommittee Management

• Subcommittee of AP065 and AR020
• Mission Statement
• Scope
• Members, Sponsors and Friends
• Volunteers
• Other

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Members, Sponsors and Friends

Subcommittees are Flexible and Informal

• All are welcome
• All of us are smarter than some of us

TRB Sponsors

• Urban Rail Transit Systems (AP065)
• Rail Rolling Stock and Motive Power (AR020)

Related Organizations

• APTA Commuter Rail Committee https://www.apta.com/member-resources/committees/commuter-rail/
• Commuter Rail Coalition https://www.commuterrailcoalition.org/

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Subcommittee Management

• New Subcommittee of AP065 and AR020
• Mission Statement
• Scope
• Members and �Friends
• Volunteers
• Other

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Volunteers

Open Positions

• Secretary
• Research Coordinator
• Communications �Coordinator

Subcommittee Management

• New Subcommittee of AP065 and AR020
• Mission Statement
• Scope
• Members and Friends
• Volunteers
• Other?
• MID YEAR MTG
• M 4/29/24 Noon?

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Agenda

Subcommittee Management

Discussion Topics

Research Priorities

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Page 12

Discussion Topics�

Aftermath of the COVID Pandemic

• Permanent Market Changes
• Ridership at 2/3rds of previous

Efficiency

• Nimble Responses to Changing Markets
• Fare Collection and Fare Policy
• Crewing and OPTO
• Level Boarding and Accessibility
• Automation

Sustainability

• Zero-Emissions Motive Power
• Urban Rail Service (S-Bahn)
• First Mile / Last Mile

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COVID Pandemic and its aftermath�

Temporary Market Disruption

• Work from Home
• Ridership Reduction

Permanent Market Changes Anticipated

• Work from Home has “too successful”
• Less Peak Traffic Congestion
• Less Competition for Parking
• Work travel will be less frequent and less peaked
• New model for commuter rail service design indicated
• Less peaked demand
• More midday and evening
• Bidirectional
• Fewer Economies of Scale

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US Transit Ridership: �Impacts of Work from Home

3.5 years after the outbreak of the pandemic US rail transit ridership remains at roughly 2/3rds of former levels.

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Source: FTA National Transit Database December 2023

Prepared by david.nelson@jacobs.com

Prepared for the 103^rd Annual Meeting

of the Transportation Research Board.

January 7-11, 2024. Washington DC

Commuter Rail�Long Road to Recovery: �Legacy Systems

• Boston is leading the pack (89%)

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• NY Railroads >60% recovery

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• Chicago and Philadelphia <60% recovery

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• MARC & CalTrain are struggling <30% recovery

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Slide 16

Prepared for the 103^rd Annual Meeting

of the Transportation Research Board.

January 7-11, 2024. Washington DC

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Slide 17

Commuter Rail�Long Road to Recovery: �New Starts

• TriRail is leading the pack (88%)

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• Railrunner, UTA, Denver, Orlando >60% recovery

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• Seattle, Nashville, Los Angles, ACE <40% recovery

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• CTDOT, VRE & Minn are struggling <=33% recovery

Prepared for the 103^rd Annual Meeting

of the Transportation Research Board.

January 7-11, 2024. Washington DC

Long Road to Recovery: �Outlook for the Future�

If the long term 43-month linear trends continue, we could see full ridership recovery in 2025

Source: FTA National Transit Database December 2023

Prepared by david.nelson@jacobs.com

Prepared for the 103^rd Annual Meeting

of the Transportation Research Board.

January 7-11, 2024. Washington DC

Long Road to Recovery: �Outlook for the Future�

But if the trends of the last 24 months prevail, full recovery will take longer.

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Up to 4 more years for full recovery (2027)

Source: FTA National Transit Database December 2023

Prepared by david.nelson@jacobs.com

Prepared for the 103^rd Annual Meeting

of the Transportation Research Board.

January 7-11, 2024. Washington DC

How is the industry responding?

TCRP J-11/Task 45: Future of Commuter Rail in North America

Remarks from Dianne Schwager

Senior Program Officer, Cooperative Research Programs

Transportation Research Board

OBJECTIVE

Identify implementable and practical strategies for commuter rail services in North America that will

• facilitate recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,
• effect transformation, and
• enjoy continued relevance.

KEY TOPICS

• Ridership and revenue trends.
• Service configurations and schedules.
• Fares
• Funding
• Cost management
• Equity, environmental and sustainability initiatives
• Marketing and messaging.

PRODUCTS

• Final Report with Industry Overview, Case Studies and Practitioners Guide

Slide 20

https://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=5445

Other TCRP Topics

Additional Remarks and Notes from Ms. Schwager

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1. TCRP publications and where to find them online (www.trb.org/tcrp)
2. Highlight any new FY 2024 projects of particular interest to the Committee (panel nominations are due on Friday, February 2, 2024). If interested in a specific project oversight panel should complete a nomination form by going to https://volunteer.mytrb.org/Panel/AvailableProjects
3. Problem statement solicitation to be issued shortly will be due on 6/14/2024.
4. Webinars (sign-up @: https://webinar.mytrb.org/Webinars to participate)

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Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority

(89% of 2019)

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Remarks from

Katherine K. O’Neil

Chief of Network Strategy and Partnering

Keolis Commuter Services

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Slide 22

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

Boston (89% of 2019)

Was preparing for a major service redesign in 2019

• Greener and more equitable
• More frequent all-day service
• Serve trips to and from the inner zones and the gateway cities
• Future electrification

In early 2021 wrote new timetables.

• Same train miles spread more evenly over the day
• Hourly offpeak service on most lines
• Reduced peak service with fewer express trains

Ridership is rebounding strongly

but its not the same market as in 2019

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

Metro North and LIRR (56% of 2019)

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Remarks from

Michael Shiffer

Senior VP, MTA Regional Planning

Metropolitan Transportation Authority

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Slide 24

MTA Regional Planning

Ridership Update TRB

January 2024

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Michael J. Shiffer, Ph.D.

Senior VP, MTA Regional Planning

Metropolitan Transportation Authority

2 Broadway C4.64

New York, NY 10004

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michael.shiffer@mtacd.org

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MTA Weekday Paid Ridership Compared to Pre-COVID

• MTA average weekday ridership is currently at about 66% of pre-pandemic volumes.
• B&T and Access-a-Ride volumes are at or above pre-pandemic levels. 

Source: https://data.ny.gov/Transportation/MTA-Daily-Ridership-Data-Beginning-2020/vxuj-8kew

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• Paid Ridership recovery for all modes is greater midweek, compared to Mondays and Fridays.
• Paid Ridership recovery is slightly greater on weekends than weekdays, with Sundays having the greatest recovery for all modes.
• Includes 40% LIRR service increase due to GCM.

Source: MTA Open Data

Paid Ridership Recovery by Mode & Day of Week, Oct 2023

Paid Subway ridership was at ~69% of Pre-COVID levels on Wednesday, 1/3/24.

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• Average weekday subway ridership in Dec 2023 was at 68% of pre-COVID ridership, comparable to the previous post-COVID high of May 2023 (68%).

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• Subway ridership surpassed 4 million riders on Apr 20, 2023 for the first time since COVID began. Since then, it has exceeded 4 million another 41 times, most recently on 12/14/2023. The post-COVID record is 4.19 million, on 9/20/2023.

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• Average weekend subway ridership in Dec 2023 was 74% of pre-COVID levels, a decline from May 2023 (80%), the post-COVID high.

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• Occasional jumps and dips may be due to holidays overperforming or underperforming compared to their baseline (e.g. 11/11/2023, 12/25/2023).

COVID Impact on Paid Subway Ridership

Source: MTA Open Data

Paid Subway & Bus Ridership by Day of Week, Oct 2019 - 2023

Source: MTA Open Data

• October 2023, ridership patterns by day of the week were consistent compared to pre-COVID patterns.
• Mondays continue to have the lowest ridership of any weekday for both subways and buses; Thursdays have the highest subway ridership and Wednesdays had highest bus ridership.

Paid Subway & Bus Ridership by Time of Day

• Time-of-day patterns have nearly returned to pre-COVID patterns, after initial flattening of peaks and shift to earlier travel times.
• The afternoon peak has returned to the same share of total ridership as pre-COVID; the 8am-9am hour has returned as the peak hour.  
• Midday hours have slightly higher ridership as a share of the total compared to pre-COVID levels.

• Time-of-day ridership patterns are very similar to pre-COVID, after initial declines in AM peak and slight shift to earlier travel in PM peak.
• AM peak hour of 7-8am is slightly higher share of ridership than pre-COVID.

Source: MTA NYCT

Paid LIRR weekday ridership was at 72% of Pre-COVID levels on Wednesday, 1/3/24.

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• Average weekday LIRR ridership for Dec 2023 was 72% of Pre-COVID levels, comparable to Nov 2023 (74%), the post-COVID high.

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• On 2/27/23, LIRR began full service at Grand Central Madison, operating 271 trains per day to the new terminal, and increasing LIRR’s systemwide service by 41% to a total of 936 trains per weekday. 

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• On 3/1/22, Peak fares returned. The 20-trip ticket was offered 3/1/22 to 8/20/23.

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• Average weekend LIRR ridership in Dec 2023 was at 95%. It has been 95% or higher since May 2023, with the post-COVID high in Jun 2023 (111%).

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• Occasional jumps are due to holidays overperforming compared to their baseline (e.g. 6/19/2023, 11/11/2023, and 11/24/2023).

Source: MTA Open Data; baseline is weekday/Saturday/Sunday from same month 2019

COVID Impact on Paid LIRR Ridership

Paid Metro-North ridership was at 72% of Pre-COVID levels on Wednesday, 1/3/24.

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• Average weekday Metro-North ridership for Dec 2023 was 72% of post-COVID levels, comparable to Nov 2023, the post-COVID high.

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• On 3/1/22, Peak fares returned. The 20-trip ticket was offered 3/1/22 to 8/20/23.

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• Average weekend Metro-North ridership for Dec 2023 was at 79% of pre-COVID levels, a decrease from Nov 2023 (88%), the previous post-COVID high.

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• Occasional jumps are due to holidays overperforming compared to their baseline (e.g. 6/19/2023, 11/11/2023, and 11/24/2023).

Source: MTA Open Data; baseline is weekday/Saturday/Sunday from same month 2019

COVID Impact on Paid Metro-North Ridership

Source: MTA Open Data

• Mondays and Fridays tend to have lower ridership, while midweek, especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays, have higher ridership.

DRAFT

LIRR & MNR Ridership by Day of Week, Oct 2020-2023

262,000 Daily Riders in October 2019

251,000 Daily Riders in October 2019

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LIRR & MNR Hourly Arrivals at Manhattan Terminals, Fall 2019 - Spring 2023

DRAFT

• For both LIRR and MNR, the peak period, especially the peak hour of 8-9am, has not recovered as fast as other times of day.
• Off-peak arrivals into Manhattan, especially in the afternoons and evenings, are at or above 2019 levels.

Railroad Recovery Rates 2023 vs. 2019

*Excludes terminal stations: GCT, GCM, Penn, Atlantic, LIC

36

Return to Office

Source: Kastle Systems BTW Barometer- https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work

• NY office occupancy was about 51% (on any given day) as of December 13, 2023. It has been relatively stable at around 50% since spring 2023.
• Pre-COVID NYC offices were only occupied by employees at 80% of their total capacity.
• Hybrid remains the most popular office policy, with 64% of employers adopting this.
• 76% of workers are in the office 2-4 days/week.
• Only 9% of employers require daily attendance.
• Industries with above average attendance include real estate (75%), financial services (65%) and law (63%); industries with below average attendance include tech (53%), media (52%) and accounting (50%).

Source: Partnership for New York City, Survey of Manhattan Office Employers, September 2023; REBNY

• Overall, ridership has stabilized in the 60%-70% range (vs. pre-COVID).

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• Subway ridership has been relatively stable with slight growth since Spring 2022; weekend ridership has recovered somewhat faster and has been over 70% since August 2022.

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• Bus ridership has been relatively stable since Spring 2022 – this does not account for fare evasion.

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• Commuter rail ridership has been steady on weekdays; weekend ridership had been recovering much faster, even surpassing pre-COVID levels for some weekends on MNR. For both LIRR and MNR, the peak period has not recovered as fast as other times of day. More recently, peak has recovered more sharply –particularly on MNR.

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• Segments of the railroads that are within NYC have had greater ridership recoveries.

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• For arrivals at commuter rail terminals, the 8-9am hour had the largest declines, and is now experiencing strongest growth.

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• Ridership patterns by Day of the Week are consistent compared to pre-COVID patterns
• For subways and buses, Mondays have the lowest weekday ridership, while Thursdays have the highest. Travel patterns are different on Fridays.
• On commuter rail, Mondays and Fridays tend to be the lowest ridership weekdays, while Tuesdays and Wednesdays have the highest ridership.

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• Office occupancy has plateaued at about 50%; relationship between ridership recovery and office occupancy is not as strong as it was.

COVID Impact on Ridership – Key Takeaways

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

SEPTA (56% of 2019)

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Remarks from

Grant Engel

Manager of Data Policy

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority

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Slide 38

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

A little over half of Regional Rail ridership is back but relatively stagnant since about January 2022.

Service recovery has been hampered by staffing shortage and has hovered around 76% since Jan 2022.

• Short 15% to 20% on Engineers and Conductors
• Service recovery is greatly impacted by operational capacity – we simply cannot operate as much service as we used to due to current operator shortages.
• SEPTA is working on recruiting and retention efforts to increase the operational workforce.
• SEPTA is also working on reviewing the training pipeline to streamlines the process and adjusting study materials to address different learning styles

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Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

Reacting to Staff Shortage

With limited staffing, SEPTA has deployed service to better reflect and serve all-day ridership, with less peak-oriented express trips and more trips throughout the day

• This is an opportunity to be useful beyond the 9-to-5 commute traditionally best served by Regional Rail and reflect current ridership trends
• It’s important to look beyond just ridership data to understand demand. By mainly serving peak demand, SEPTA would miss out on the majority of travel being done in the region, which occurs in the midday.
• We’ve seen the strongest recovery on lines with a solid mix of land uses and more frequent service throughout the day, such as the Paoli Thorndale line and the Manayunk Norristown Line – both of which serve colleges and major job centers outside of Center City.

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Slide 40

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

New Fare Policy

New fare policies to better integrate Bus, Metro, and Regional Rail.

• TransPass+, a new weekly and monthly fare product fully covering travel by any mode within Zone 1 for one price.
• Ridership at some Zone 1 stations increasing at a faster pace than other zones, particularly where it is convenient to substitute regional for a slower but previously cheaper mode.
• Riders have switched to Regional Rail for faster trip without any cost change.
• Fare policy changes are foundational goals of Reimagining Regional Rail, SEPTA’s current master plan effort for Regional Rail.
• Overall goal = fully integrated, frequent, easy to use Regional Rail system that is part of a Lifestyle Transit Network of SEPTA services that move the region.

Miniature case studies: �How are the railroads responding?

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What are other railroads and cities doing to respond to market conditions?

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Slide 42

Agenda

Subcommittee Management

Discussion Topics

Research Priorities

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Page 43

Urgent Research Needs

• How has urban-suburban commuting changed?
• If so, Why? How? and How Much?

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• Will commuter rail ridership recover in Work from Home era?

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• How should commuter rail respond to changing travel patterns?

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Slide 44

Efficiency: Innovation and Research�

With less density of travel, commuter rail will be pressed to lower its costs of operation

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• Nimble Responses to Changing Markets
• Fare Collection and Fare Policy
• Crewing and One Person Train Operations
• Level Boarding and Accessibility
• Leveraging new train control technologies
• What can we do with PTC?
• Automation and Self-Driving Trains

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Page 45

Sustainability: Innovations & Research�

Climate change didn’t stop

• Zero-Emissions Motive Power
• 9% of Vehicle Miles are run by “All-Electric” railroads
• SEPTA, DEN, NICTD
• 56% operated by “Mostly Electric”
• MNR, LIRR, NJT
• 5% operated by “Some Electric”
• Metra, MARC
• 20% operated by “All Diesel” railroads
• MBTA, MetroLink, all others
• Urban Rail Services (S-Bahn / RER)
• First Mile / Last Mile

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Page 46

Zero Emissions News

• 10/11/23: First U.S. Hydrogen Powered Passenger Trainset Testing at TTC
• 10/17/23: Metra has been awarded a $170 million in CMAQ funds to purchase 16 zero-emission, battery-powered trainsets.
• 10/19/23: Alstom and SNCF converting 5 DMUs to BEMUs for December 2024.
• 10/22/23 Caltrain allocated $80 million to help build a battery-electric multiple unit train for service from Gilroy to San Francisco

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Major Research Directions?

1. Work from Home vs Commuter Rail
2. Faster, Better and Cheaper
3. Cleaner and Greener

4. What did we forget?

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Slide 48

Research is Our Middle Name

• Calls for Papers
• Research Needs Statements

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Slide 49

Mid Year Telecon?

• Update from TCRP 11/45?
• Plan 2025 Meeting
• Solicit Presentations and Papers
• Monday April 29, 2021 Noon?

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Slide 50

Commuter Rail Systems Subcommittee: AP065(5)�Wednesday, January 10, 2024 | 10:15 am - 12:00 pm �Independence Salon C (M4), Marriott Marquis, Washington DC����� �

103^rd Annual Meeting of the

Transportation Research Board

Washington DC