The Doolittle Raid�The Most Effective Raid?�The Most Effective Effects Based Operation?

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargaming

Requirements Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

July 2007

My Bio

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/speaker
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

Thesis

The Doolittle Raid demonstrated important lessons for today strategic dilemmas

Overview

• Utility of History
• Effects Based Operations 101
• The Ancient Art of Effects Based Opps
• The Doolittle Raid as EBO
• The PTO Strategic Situation Dec 8 1941
• The Plan
• The Execution
• The Impacts
• Lessons for Today?

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The Utility of History

• Guns, Germs and Steel
• Spanish draw on history
• Inca draw on his experience
• The three most useless things in the AF
• History is sterile if it does not speak to the present

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Past events can inform current theory and inform future actions.

Effects Based Operations 101

The objective of military operations is not to inflict attrition or even tactical victory but to achieve effects

• End State to Aim Point thinking
• Work backward from End State
• Envision chain of effects connecting today to End State
• Identify the most cost effective means to achieve each effect.

The Ancient Art of EBO

Previous Origins Talk

• Alexander the Great – winning the peace
• The Fall of Constantinople
• Washington
• Other contender for THE EBO raid
• Other contender for best US EBO strategist
• Winfield Scott – Anaconda Plan
• Sherman – March to effects

The Doolittle Raid as EBO

• Doolittle Raid a disaster viewed as attrition warfare
• US loss of 16 Bombers - Japan loss of 0 AC
• US 16 aircrew dead, captured – Japan 0 mil
• Yet that is not how it was viewed
• US – first great victory
• Japan – the first great disaster

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The Doolittle Reid - the most effective EBO

PTO Strategic Situation Early ‘42

The Plan

The Plan

Performance

• Maximum speed: 275 mph (239 knots, 442 km/h)
• Cruise speed: 230 mph (200 knots, 370 km/h)
• Combat radius: 1,350 mi (1,170 nm, 2,170 km)
• Ferry range: 2,700 mi (2,300 nm, 4,300 km)
• Service ceiling: 25,000 ft (7,600 m)
• Rate of climb: 790 ft/min (4 m/s)
• Wing loading: 55 lb/ft² (270 kg/m²)
• Power/mass: 0.110 hp/lb (182 W/kg)

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Armament

• Guns: 12× .50 in (12.7 mm) machine guns
• Bombs: 6,000 lb (2,700 kg)

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B-25B Mitchell

Medium Bomber

The Plan

The Plan

The Plan

The Plan

Execution

TO COL. DOOLITTLE AND HIS GALLANT COMMAND�GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS YOU - HALSEY

The Execution

Impacts

• Political – US and Allied morale soars
• Diplomatic – Neutrals impressed
• Operation – Japanese forces dispersed
• Strategic – The Battle of Midway

Personal Impacts

• James Doolittle
• Medal of Honor
• Lt Col to Lt Gen

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• The Doolittle Raiders
• 3 died in bailout/ditching
• 8 captured/half killed
• 5 interned by Soviets
• 80 received the DFC

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Lessons for Today

• Joint forces can do what neither can do separately
• Combining strategy, leadership, courage and technology can accomplish what none of them can do alone
• Indirect effects can be many orders of magnitude greater then direct effects
• It’s good to have strategic reach

Bonus Tidbit

Today 1 B-2 can drop as many tons on any target anywhere requiring:

• 78 fewer aircrew
• 2 fewer aircraft carriers
• 10,000 fewer Navy personnel

And both aircrew are likely return safely

Enduring Personal Impacts

• James Doolittle - General

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• The Doolittle Raiders

14 remain

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