Earth’s Geomagnetic Environment�—�Progress and Gaps in Understanding, Prediction, and Impacts��H.J. Opgenoorth, R. Robinson (Co-Moderators) �and all ISWAT G1 Cluster Members��
Tentative Title for G1 discussions at this ISWAT Workshop
(… and also for the planned high-level review paper
containing the G1 Roadmap Update Contributions)
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Goal of the overarching G1 Cluster activities:
To achieve these objectives, it is important to investigate and understand the following areas
ISWAT G1 Cluster
DRIVING
- the relative role of solar wind magnetic field direction and strength, plasma density, temperature and velocity on the generation of currents and energisation of plasma in the various coupled magnetospheric regions
- the roles of any combined varieties, even temporal sequences, of any such drivers on the resulting magnetospheric current systems and their expected variability
How the resulting magnetospheric current systems differ for low, moderate or extreme solar wind drivers, and how much they may depend on the prehistory of the solar wind.
ISWAT G1 Cluster
COUPLING
- the physical mechanisms causing partition of stored magnetic energy in the magnetosphere, i.e. in the magnetopause currents, tail currents, ring currents and the coupled ionospheric currents;
- the physical mechanisms of how these current systems couple to the upper atmosphere, extracting both energy and plasma from the magnetosphere, and heavier plasma from the atmosphere, affecting the overall energy content and thus the stability of the original magnetospheric currents
- the physical mechanisms how the Solar wind and/or internal drivers can affect, trigger or determine the excitation of instabilities in the coupled geo-space system of currents and plasmas, such that either the entire system itself - or only parts of it - can rapidly increase or decay, e.g. substorms, or magnetic “spikes” in storms.
- the physical mechanisms which determine both location and time, and even amplitude, extent and duration of any rapid or slow changes in any of the coupled magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems
ISWAT G1 Cluster
IMPACTS
- the combined impact of rapid magnetic changes (extent, duration and amplitude, and even their repetitiveness) on any particular part of our man-made infrastructure
- the vulnerability of any such infrastructure to a potential variety of imposed rapid changes in geomagnetically induced electric fields
- the additional role of soil, ocean or crustal conductivities on the enhancement or modification of any such electric fields
- the combinations of risk factors originating from localised magnetic disturbances (occurring almost anywhere at random), with either particular structures in the surface and crustal conductivities and/or any exposed structures in the potentially affected infrastructure itself.
ISWAT G1 Cluster
The ultimate proof for that we do understand the most important physical processes in this coupled system will be our ability to model the temporal and spatial behavior of the geomagnetic environment of a variety of solar wind drivers
- also with respect to their sequence, combination and time history.
Thus the scientific work of physical event-studies and statistical investigations must go hand in hand with an ever improving coupled model effort.
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Our discussions at this meeting will be mainly in G1 plenary form, as already successfully done in Florida last time.
We will try to summarize the progress that has been made in the last 10 to 20 years in understanding the geomagnetic environment and forecasting those disturbances that represent the greatest threats to technical systems, considering in particular:
This should illuminate both what we know and what we have yet to understand to mitigate geomagnetic hazards to technical systems.
We plan a high-level review paper addressing the above points and will make recommendations for SWx Roadmap updates, accordingly
ISWAT G1 Cluster
We reserved 4 (5) time-slots for G1 Cluster discussions during this workshop
NOTE : all times in UT!!!!
14 Sept 16:30 to 18:30
15 Sept 16:30 to 18:30
16 Sept 16:30 to 18:30
28 Sept 16:30 to 18:30
In addition the AuroraPHILE Team has reserved 27 Sept 16:30 to 18:30,
Depending on attendance and outcome of our discussions this can be used for another G1 topic, or an extension of the G1 plenary discussions
The first session will be used to organise a sequence of about 8 presentations.
The other sessions will be dedicated to the topics /chapters for the review…
ISWAT G1 Cluster
MHD Modeling of the Geomagnetic Environment
Actions:
Advance the modeling capability of the coupled geo- space system.
Understand and quantify spatial and temporal features of geomagnetic variability in response to external and internal drivers.
16+ Papers on MHD Simulations
Base:
NOTE: we have asked our G1 team members to submit relevant references for the review.
This list for this and the following chapters is not by any means complete yet…
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Mid- to Low-Latitude Space Weather Effects
Actions:
Advance knowledge on ionosphere magnetosphere interaction into regions of the closed magnetic field configurations, affecting denser populated areas
Base: 6+ Papers on modeling mid- to low-latitude space weather effects
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Auroral Precipitation and High Latitude Electrodynamics
Actions:
Understand and quantify effects of coupling between ionosphere-magnetosphere current systems and processes in the upper atmosphere.
Understand and quantify properties of the high latitude region, including particle precipitation, conductivities, electric fields, neutral winds, currents, electromagnetic energy input, and Joule heating.
Review of geomagnetic activity indices and activity scales.
Understand and quantify sub-storm initiation and dynamics.
19+ Papers on auroral precipitation and conductances
16+ Papers on modeling auroral electrodynamics
5+ Papers on electric field specification
6+ Papers on field-aligned currents
8+ Papers on Joule heating and Poynting flux
10+ Papers on auroral boundary specification
2+ Papers on ion outflow
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Geo- electric Fields and GICs
Actions:
Understand and quantify role of soil, ocean or crustal conductivities on the enhancement or modification of any electric fields induced by geomagnetic disturbances - GMD
Understand and quantify impact of geomagnetic variability on critical infrastructure.
Quantification of extreme GIC characteristics
Base:
34+ Papers on Geo-magnetically Induced Currents:
8+ Papers on Geo-electric Fields:
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Understanding the Geomagnetic Response to CMEs
Actions:
Understand and quantify the relative role of different magnetized solar wind plasma and field parameters on the generation of electric currents and the energization of plasma in various regions of coupled geo-space system.
Understand the role of pre-history of driving mechanisms.
Understand and quantify differences in magnetospheric current systems for low, moderate or extreme solar wind drivers.
Assessment of capabilities to forecast geomagnetic environment variability.
Assessment of capabilities to forecast magnetopause position.
Assessment and improvement of capabilities to model auroral boundaries.
Base:
3+ Papers on solar wind coupling
9+ Papers on Extreme events
ISWAT G1 Cluster
Conclusions
Actions:
Generating detailed and overarching G1 related inputs to a global Space Weather Roadmap update
- Knowledge gaps
- Prediction shortcomings
- Impact analysis and risk assessment