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The Global Baseline, 2022

Alex Russell�

performance.now(), 2022

@slightlylate

infrequently.org

@slightlyoff@toot.cafe�alexrussell@microsoft.com

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“web performance expands access to information and services by reducing latency and variance across interactions in a session, �with a particular focus on the tail of the distribution (P75+)”

infrequently.org/2022/05/performance-management-maturity/

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<a href=“https://example.com”>� We Succeed Or Fail � <em>Together</em>�</a>

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infrequently.org/2021/03/the-performance-inequality-gap/chart/

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‘16’s Moto G4:� �An Informed Guess

~$300-350 new

Cheaper devices available�

8-core, A53-based, 1.1GHz

28nm, FML
2GB RAM�

“Out, not up” clear in the data�
Sadly prescient

infrequently.org/2021/03/the-performance-inequality-gap/chart/

ELT layout

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2017 Budget Calculus

Moto G4 baseline�
Targets:

<= 5000ms first load
<= 3000ms repeat view�

~130-170KiB of content / page

Budget decreases as JS fraction increases

infrequently.org/2017/10/can-you-afford-it-real-world-web-performance-budgets/

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Q1’21 Baseline:�P75+ User

$150 USD, 2017 vintage phone

Moto E6, e.g.
4-core, 1.4ghz, A53s
2GB RAM�

Slow-ish 4G

High variance
Slipping into 3G at times�

~100KiB HTML/CSS +�~300-350KiB of JS�
Heavily content dependent, because CPU

infrequently.org/2021/03/the-performance-inequality-gap/chart/

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Legs of the Stool

Browsers�

Networks�

Devices�

Content

ELT layout

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https://how.complexsystems.fail/

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Browser Factors

Diffusion & Retirement

Statcounter, private data�

Codecs & Protocol Support�
bugs * share == pain

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Network Factors

Availability

Opensignal, speedtest, GSMA, Private Data�

Hardware Support�
Variance!!!

Density, Oversubscription, Backhaul, Spectrum

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OpenSignal 2022 India, USA Experience Reports

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OpenSignal 2022 India, USA Experience Reports

FIXED IT

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gsma.com/coverage/#107

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speedtest.net mobile report

www.speedtest.net/global-index

Country	Median	Mean
Netherlands	105 Mbps	124 Mbps
USA	68 Mbps	141 Mbps
India	14 Mbps	20 Mbps

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Desktop Is Variable Too

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themarkup.org/still-loading/2022/10/19/dollars-to-megabits-you-may-be-paying-400-times-as-much-as-your-neighbor-for-internet-service

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Favour Conservative Estimates

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Device Situation Factors

Market penetration
Retirement rates
Sales

IDC, Canalys, etc.

CPU perf at volume price
Radio/modem generations
Disk latency

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Mobile Sitrep

Phones live 3-4 yrs

ASPs: performance destiny

Today:

< $350 average
< $300 in Android
Premium: > $700

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What About Desktop?

Desktop devices live 5-8 yrs.

The P50 PC was sold in 2018

P75 is vintage 2016

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From Edge Telemetry

About half of users:�

Spinning rust (not SSD)
<= 4GB RAM
2-4 core

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Wealth Is Unusual

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gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/worldwide

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pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile

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Your iPhone Isn’t Real Life

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Today’s Median Phone

An Android
… on 4G
…sold 18+ months ago
at local market ASP

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P50 is a vanity metric

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Today’s P75 Phone

An Android
… on 4G
…sold 30+ months ago
at local market ASP

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httparchive.org/reports/state-of-javascript

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httparchive.org/reports/state-of-javascript

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2021 CPU Update

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2022 CPU Update

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Inquiry Is A Lantern For Illuminating Privilege

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