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How to take more risks (and why you should)

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Background: Expected Value (EV)

To find Expected Value of an action, multiply the probability of each outcome by its value, and add all your answers up.

E.g. A coin flip:

Heads → get £1
Tails → get nothing

Expected Value is (0.5 x £1) + (0.5 x £0) = 50p

This is the average value I'd expect to get if I flipped the coin many times.

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Concept

Upside bargains: risks with amazing but unlikely (<50%) upsides, and minimal downsides.

E.g.

Asking someone out
Applying to job I felt unqualified for
Running this workshop
Asking maths department for 3rd year lecture recordings
Asking for a nomination for an award

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Sometimes, they do work out!

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Starter

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Taking Upside Bargains is Scary

But you shouldn’t trust your intuition that you shouldn’t do it!

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Problem 1: Resulting Fallacy

Judging actions by their consequences (resulting fallacy), rather than by their expected value

Ok before you all leave, I don't think Freddie Mercury is an idiot, I will make a point I promise.

We tend to admire people that risk everything and succeed against the odds, like Queen who released Bohemian Rhapsody which as we know was an incredible success, so we might think that releasing Bo Rhap was a good decision, but thinking this might be the resulting fallacy- conflating the value of a decision with its outcome. Yes, the decision turned out well, but I think the EV of the decision was very low as he was v unlikely to succeed as radios didn't tend to release songs longer than 3 minutes at the time (as foster, the bloke on the left told them); and obviously the cost of releasing a song that fails must be quite high. That's why I think Foster was right to refuse to release Bohemian Rhapsody (unless, ofc, Queen had more information). This is probably factually inaccurate but

The point here is that I want us to separate the result or the most likely result of an action from the value of taking that action, because ofc, Upside Bargains are very valuable (in terms of expected value) even though their outcomes are mostly negative. So, I think we need to celebrate taking Upside Bargains, even though they didn't turn out well. E.g. Peter Wallich, and I like to go back to that list of Upside Bargains and be happy that I made the right decision even though most of them didn't work out, because I know that it will work out eventually.

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Problem 2: Present vs Future you

Present you is harmed while future you benefits
But you care more about present you because of temporal/ hyperbolic discounting
Suggestions:

Make the upside more concrete
Form habits

The problem with taking an upside bargain is that present you has to do something scary and likely going to be rejected, while future you only could benefit, and obviously we care a lot more about present you than future you, as I'm sure the procrastinators in the room can attest! This asymmetry is called temporal discounting or hyperbolic discounting (called that because of the shape of the graph of how much you care over time) and it's quite well documented (as people will rather take more money now than less money later), and in procrastination, but it's clearly irrational as you will eventually become future you- eventually, you will get to the point where it's 2am and you wish you did some prep for your 24hr exam.

I'm going to mention briefly how to address this (although we'll go through solutions properly after this)

Make the upside more concrete: Imagine, as vividly as possible, that you're future you and the bargain went well. (This should be so much more pleasant than the rejection is unpleasant).
Also, if you're thinking in general about doing something to benefit future you such as studying or going to the gym, forming a habit/ automation may be useful here, i.e. just deciding once that you will go to the gym at these times on these days and sticking to it. This is useful because you can make the gym part of your status quo, and your brain loves the status quo; and because motivation is an overrated and finite resource, but habits don't take effort once they're formed. (side note- don't wait for motivation, as typically motivation comes after action, not the reverse- that's why people say to do a small task in the morning like making the bed as it gives you motivation, momentum and confidence for the day, but I digress).

The way you can apply automation/ habits to upside bargains is to get into the habit of trying new things, e.g. 'I will cook a new recipe once a week' or 'I will try a new sport or society once a week.'

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Problem 3: Social Rejection and Loss Aversion

Asking people for things is scary :((
Suggestions:

Try to separate the amount of fear you are feeling from how bad the downside is
See how bad the downside is by imagining the worst case scenario: does it matter: a month, a year, 10 years from now?
Get used to taking low level risks and build up

Also, violating social norms is hard so expand the range of options you consider by brainstorming

Obviously, asking someone for a favour or applying to something really selective is scary as we fear rejection. This could be explained in evolutionary terms, as, in the past, being socially rejected could get you killed, but this isn't the case now! This means that our instinct not to do it is outdated, so the fact that you have that instinct isn't a reason (in itself) not to do it. In fact, in the kahoot we saw how incorrect our instincts/ intuitions can be- you might have been really really sure that your answer was correct, in the same way that you might be really sure that asking for a favour is a bad idea, but that doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't do it!

(of course, there might be genuine reasons not to ask for a favour, e.g. if it is genuinely risky for your reputation, but I'm just saying that you should try to separate the intensity of the fear you're experiencing from the magnitude of the potential downside as they don't always correlate, e.g. asking someone out).

Suggestions:

Understand that loss aversion can be irrational (people would rather keep an item than swap it for a nearly identical item) so the amount of fear that you're experiencing isn't a good indicator of the downside, so to get a sense of the downside:
Imagine the worst case scenario: does it matter a month, a year, 10 years from now?
Get used to taking low level risks and build up. Rejection is inevitable, so it's worth getting used to. Yes, if you take many upside bargains you will get rejected a lot more than those that don't, but by the time you're rejected more than the average person, you'll probably be so used to the rejection that it won't matter

Another bit of this problem is that because we're so afraid of violating social norms we sometimes can't even see non-standard, socially endorsed paths. (Even Neel Nanda (who came top in Cambridge maths), found it hard to take time out for AI safety research as it's not what he was 'meant' to do).

Solution: Expand the range of options that we consider by brainstorming options under a time limit, and having a really low bar for what we write down. [Consider inserting an example here] What I'm trying to say is that this is an option that most people wouldn't have considered (because it's a weird thing to do) but it could be a good idea (I'm not claiming that this is defo a good idea by any means, only that options exist that are outside the socially endorsed path).

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Solution 1: Ways to see the Upside

Make the upside more concrete
Redefine success; success is a good decision, not a good outcome
There is always an upside:

taking risks makes you more likely to take risks in future
Information value

Opportunity framing

Make the upside more concrete: imagine, in as much detail as possible, the world in which you saw the upside- you can make the experience more immersive by engaging the 5 senses, and by tapping into the emotions that you would experience if you succeeded- the joy, the excitement, the satisfaction. (This is prehinsight/ backcasting).
Redefine success:

What makes a great decision is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure”. (Duke, Thinking In Bets).

Therefore, most decisions with positive EV are successes- rejected applications are good ideas. For me, there's some joy in knowing that yes, it didn't work out in this world, but in some possible world it did work out.

Benefit of taking these risks:

Taking Upside Bargains makes you more likely to try them in future, and this is beneficial overall (because they're positive EV). Rejection is inevitable, but taking small Upside Bargains makes you less likely to fear it.
There are also specific benefits to trying stuff, e.g. applying to stuff is useful as it makes you collect evidence about what you're good at, or in my case, bad at, and it makes you more resilient.

Opportunity framing: when asking someone for help, you're giving them an opportunity to help you (e.g. Neel Nanda finds it fun to give advice), so you're giving them free option value (as they can always say no).

There might be a cost of saying no, but the busier and higher status they are, the more accustomed they are to saying no, so the lower the costs

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Solution 2: Increase the probability of success

Premortems- imagine it went badly
Pre hindsight- imagine it went well

What did you do?

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Solution 3: Reduce fear of downside

Remember, how much fear you’re experiencing doesn’t always correlate with how bad the downside is
To see how bad the downside is:

Imagine the worst case scenario- does it matter
Flip the roles of the people in the situation

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Activity 1

Think of someone who either

Is a friend that you like but have lost contact with
Or is someone that you admire (and have the contact details for)

Message them.

This is scary, but think ‘what would I think if I received this message from them?’

Ok this is the point in my planning when I realised this is a workshop so let me shut up for a minute and get you to do something.

So I’m going to get you to take an upside bargain right now. I want youu to think of someone who you like/ admire, and have either lost contact with (and would like to get back in touch) or someone you want to get to know. This is an upside bargain because if they say yes- you have a new/ renewed friendship- Yay! And if they say no you never have to see them again. I get that this is scary, so if you’re worried about what they’ll think, try thinking ‘what would I think if I received this message from them?’

When I was asked to do this I thought that ‘I fell out contact with them for a reason’- like I don’t really like them that much, but it’s been a couple of years, so what if we’ve changed so I could see this as an Upside Bargain wrt a new friendship- if it fails- if we meet up and don’t get on, I wasted an hr- so what?

�For me, asking u to do this might be an upside bargain (although it’s likely that at least one of u have someone that meets this description). I was scared of asking u guys to do this bc what if it doesn’t apply to any of you, and I thought ‘what’s the worst case scenario?’ I’ll ask u guys, and you’ll tell me that that’s the case, and we’ll move on. Wait so do u guys know people that meet that description?

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Activity 2: Apply this to your own life

Pick a prompt (or your own) and brainstorm solutions:

How can you get more info to decide on a career?
How could you learn about your priorities in a career?
How can you learn about what you’re good at?
How can you get better at something?

Would recommend replacing this activity with a separate session to follow on from this one; e.g. a brainstorming session that people can put these ideas into practice with, such as career planning by aptitudes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CJYGP-EckCwGJW6tp54LpELZhV-KbjzaqrO1WeVOyDc/edit#heading=h.kalhbyo4ak34

Now u know u can do something scary seeming like that, let’s brainstorm solutions to your problems.

I’m going to give u some prompts, and you’ll have 10 mins toi brainstorm ideas for 1 of the prompts (or your own).

So think of a problem you’re having, perhaps u can’t decide on career (idk if you guys have been thinking about that lol)- how could u get more info here, and could u research decision making techniques here?

if u can’t think of one, think of something u want to get better at, and if you’re undecided on what to get better at, think about how u could learn about what you’re good at

Or, if u don’t like the problem framing, think about what you’ve learned on this retreat and how u can act on it!

�Once u have a problem, brainstorm solutions, and remember to have a really low bar for what u write down, it might even help to intentionally write down a really bad idea- in a brainstorming session about making fashion more sustainable, someone wrote down the intentionally bad idea of ‘ban all clothes imports’ to set the bar really low so we were more comfortable suggesting things. I suggest u do the same.

�2 mins before the end- select and commit to one of your options- set a deadline or a time to do it. Ask someone to keep u accountable.

Can anyone tell me their action points.

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Conclusion

Set a 5 min timer and brainstorm solutions to a problem. Have a low bar for writing stuff down!

Try everything once e.g:

Productivity tricks
Hobbies/ sports/ societies
Friends/ dates
Optimistic job applications
Do the crazy ideas that pop into your head (like running this workshop)
Post in the EA forum
Do 1-on-1s

Be ambitious! Not because you think you will succeed, but because you know you will be fine if you don’t.

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Feedback Pls!