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Models and indicators for the evolution of the epidemic in Mexico

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IMAG/MSM WG

23 september 2021

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Jorge X. Velasco Hernández

Instituto de Matemáticas Juriquilla

M. Adrian Acuña-Zegarra

Universidad de Sonora

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History matters in SARS-CoV-2 dynamics

  • History matters
    • The effective contact rate in 2020 and early 2021 provides information on repetitive social behavior.
    • Key calendar events during 2020 were associated to heightened transmission, heightened hospital demand, and increases in deaths.
    • Recreation of scenarios for the evolution of the epidemic curve for the rest of 2021.
  • Social behavior constant in civic and religious holidays
    • it is possible to know in advance dates associated with changes in trend and magnitude of contact rate.
    • the percentage change observed in the effective contact rate between two consecutive dates will be repeated in the same period the next year.
  • Lack of intensive widespread testing and limited contact-tracing.
  • Mild mitigation enfrcing (lockdowns, social distancing).

Santana, Acuña, VH (2021) ://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.14.21255436v2

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Assumptions

  • Each state has an independent epidemic.
  • The effective contact rate captures local behavior and state interactions.
  • There are no new viral variants involved in transmission.
  • Projections are updated every 15 days.

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Santana, Acuña, VH (2021) ://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.14.21255436v2

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Model

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Datos hasta mayo 10

Datos hasta junio 15

Mexico City

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Incorporating vaccination

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Mexico City

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Querétaro

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Risk index

Dushoff, CalTech

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Colaboradores

Investigadores:

  • Adrián Acuña Zegarra, Matemáticas, UNISON
  • Mario Santana Cibrián, CONACyT IMATE-Juriquilla
  • Marco Tulio Angulo Ballesteros, CONACyT IMATE-Juriquilla
  • Ramsés Mena, IIMAS-UNAM
  • Carlos E. Rodriguez, IIMAS-UNAM

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Estudiantes:

  • Ruth Corona Moreno, Posgrado Ciencias Matemáticas UNAM
  • Natalia Ramírez Estrada, ENES-Juriquilla
  • Samuel Romero Santiago, ENES-Juriquilla
  • Santiago Espinoza Márquez, ENES-Juriquilla

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Proyecto IV100220

jx.velasco@im.unam.mx

Santana, Acuña, VH (2021) ://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.14.21255436v2