Sam Wang
February 5, 2025
samwang.substack.com
electoral-lab.org
Giving Voice to The Third Mountain:
Primary Reform and Pivotal Voters
The Third Mountain
Desirable qualities in a democracy:
electoral-lab.org
Gamers, breakers, and
a desperate minority
Ashley Gilbertson/VII
By Timothy Snyder
January 9, 2021
Can Math Help Repair Democracy?
Close Presidential Elections in Two Gilded Ages
Racial divisions
Technological disruption
Increasing inequality
Deep partisanship
Racial divisions
Technological disruption
Increasing inequality
Deep partisanship
.2020
.2024
https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx
2024:
51%
24%
24%
representation.
Biden 50%
Trump 46%
Biden 2,000 times
Trump 8,000 times
Third party 0 times
D v. ??? v. R
A third party: savior or spoiler?
D v. R
Likely wins
10,000 simulations
D 5,000 times
R 5,000 times
Voter polarization
Winner’s vote share
R 50%
D 50%
Democrat 4,200 times
Republican 4,200 times
Third party 1,600 times
A third party fields a
candidate for
local office
Fairness and competition
If even 1 in 20 partisan voters has complex preferences,
voting-rules reform can double the number of competitive seats
: The hope of voting rules reform
Top-four primary
followed by a ranked-choice
general election system
(2024)
Does ranked-choice voting reduce polarization?
Democracy repairs on the ballot, 2024
All-party primaries
Ranked-choice voting
Nonpartisan redistricting
https://votemaximizer.org
Pro-abortion vote ran 11 points
ahead of Democratic vote share
Pro-democracy-reform vote ran 5 points
behind Democratic vote share
Ranked-choice voting became partisan in 2024 – and failed
Harris vote share (%)
Vote share
pro-abortion/
pro-democracy
(%)
AK
MT
Most proposals included ranked-choice voting
Exceptions: repeal (Alaska),
all-party primaries (Montana),
redistricting reform (Ohio)
OH
x
Boosting primary turnout can build moderation
Voters
Election winners
Democrats and Republicans
Increasing turnout in the current primary system
Letting unaffiliateds vote in a combined all-party primary
Unaffiliateds
Fraction
of voters
Fraction
of voters
Tennessee
Senate
House
Seat Winners
High turnout
Current turnout
Current turnout
High turnout
electoral-lab.org