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David Stove (1927-94)�Master of argument

Broken Science Initiative

Phoenix 18/2/23

James Franklin

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Takehomes

The (probabilistic) relation of evidence to conclusion is logic
Deductivism (the thesis that the only logic is deductive) is evil
The philosophy of science of Popper, Kuhn and followers is a disaster
Induction is justifiable by the logic of probability
Other: conservative, anti-feminism, anti-evolution …

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“The Faculty of Arts at the University of Sydney is a disaster-area, and not of the merely passive kind, like a bombed building, or an area that has been flooded. It is the active kind, like a badly-leaking nuclear reactor, or an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle.”

(A Farewell to Arts, 1986)

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“The Faculty of Arts at the University of Sydney is a disaster-area, and not of the merely passive kind, like a bombed building, or an area that has been flooded. It is the active kind, like a badly-leaking nuclear reactor, or an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle.

… the disaster I am speaking of has not overtaken the Faculty of Science, or any of the science-based faculties, such as Engineering or Agriculture.”

(A Farewell to Arts, 1986)

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Logical Probability

Keynes, Carnap, ET Jaynes, Stove, …
The (probabilistic) relation of evidence to conclusion is logic
It’s the same across science, history, law, detective work …
Deductivism (the thesis that the only logic is deductive) is evil

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Logical Probability

Deductivism (the thesis that the only logic is deductive) is evil
The thesis of Popper and After: the dominant philosophy of science of Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn et al was based on deductivism and so undermined the rationality of science
Was science itself affected?

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“The parallel would be complete if the fox, having become convinced that neither he nor anyone else could ever succeed in tasting grapes, should nevertheless write many long books on the progress of viticulture.”

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Two principles of logical probability

Confirmation of theories by their consequences (e.g. predictions)
The proportional syllogism

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1. Confirmation by consequences

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“Theories are confirmed by their consequences”

Polya’s “fundamental inductive pattern”

- and the more unlikely the consequence initially, the more it confirms the theory

��Not specific to science

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2. The proportional syllogism

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The syllogism:

All men are mortal

Socrates is a man

Therefore, Socrates is mortal

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The proportional syllogism:

99% of men are mortal