Lessons of Ukraine - Russia War Applied to

India – China Context

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

24 Nov 2022

Fort William

Seminar on Chinese Approach to War

Fighting

"The

of fighting

old concepts

big tank

battles on European landmass are over. There are other, better things that we should be investing in FCAS, in the future combat air system, in cyber, this is

how warfare future is going

of the to be

fought.”

Boris Johnson, House of Commons Committee,

November 2021

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2022/02/watch-boris-johnson- claimed-the-days-of-big-tank-battles-in-europe-were-over

Warfare Terminology

• Non Contact
• Non Kinetic
• Hybrid
• Grey Zone
• 6^th Generation
• Next Generation
• Irregular
• Sub Conventional

Definition of Irregular warfare

Irregular warfare is the overt, clandestine, and covert employment of military and non-military capabilities across multiple domains by state and non-state actors through methods other than military domination of an adversary, either as the primary approach or in concert with conventional warfare.

The McChrystal Afghanistan PowerPoint slide

"When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"

Present Status

Cyber Warfare

So What?

Information/Psychological Warfare

Terminology

• Information operation
• Psychological operation
• Strategic communications
• Influence operations
• Perception management
• Cyber-enable Influence/information manipulation (IIWAM)
• Cognitive operation
• Political Warfare
• Public information operations
• Public field diplomacy
• Or other similar terms?

warfare and

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/121206_brooksmemo.pdf

Professional Skill Required for Psychological Operations

• Communications technologists
• Behavioral scientists
• Educators
• Historians
• Economists
• Religious scholars
• Linguists and translators
• Political scientists
• Librarians and researchers
• Corporate business managers and entrepreneurs
• Marketing managers
• Market researchers
• Advertising copywriters, art directors, and media planners
• Producers and directors
• Artists, authors, and musicians
• Retired government officials

Indications about Future of Conflict

• C4 I Grid. Critical govt data shifted to cloud Microsoft actively involved.
• Sensor Grid. Govt app used by most of the population. Swiss developed secure messaging service to receive battle damage assessments, report of casualties, position of enemy forces. Use of AI to verify and process the info.
• Effect Grid. Drones important component of long range precision fire. Loitering munitions to destroy light and armd targets cheaply from far. High Mobility Artillery Rocket System(HIMARS) disrupt Russian supply lines and depot. Portable easy to use anti tank, anti aircraft and anti personal weapons to defend against Russian offensive.
• Lgs and Sp Grid. Russia’s poorly supported supply units not able to support larger mvre.

Changing Character of Warfare -Ukraine War

• Individualisation of War.
• Risk of major war rising.
• Emerging and Disruptive technologies, international obligations

not clearly addressed.

• Adversary applications of emerging tech may not be ethically constrained.
• Emerging technologies are qualitatively changing the way we

perceive our environment, communicate and make decisions.

• Wars may get into prolonged contests that place high premium on strength of industrial base, innovation ecosystem and political will.

already being

• Critical infrastructures are vulnerable and are targeted.
• Use of nuclear weapons cannot be discounted.
• Growing importance of software and connectivity to military

operations will accelerate adaptation of tactics and technology

• Proliferation of sensors, analytical tools, precision guided munitions and non kinetic payloads like cyber, directed energy are fundamentally altering the hider – finder contest.

Drone Warfare

CHINA

China's stealth drones missiles have surpassed and threaten the

U.S. In late September 2022, the world received its first look into the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Squadron. The Chinese arsenal has showcased WL- 2, GJ-2, WL-3, FH-901, WL-1E, WL-10A and FH-97A with

dramatic effect, showing footage of targeting aerial platforms and ground vehicles. The entire series of "Feihong" brand products were collectively displayed at the 13th China Air Show, including FH-901 patrol swarm system, FH-902 individual fixed- wing UAV system, FH-91 reconnaissance UAV system, FH-96 long-endurance UAV system, FH-92A inspection and attack integrated UAV system, FH-95 medium and long-range multi- purpose UAV system and other "fist" products. very similar to XQ-58A.

• UAV battalions are integral to China's army brigade combat team of PLA Ground Forces. Also, the VT-5U light tank in the tank battalion is equipped with a vehicle- mounted UAV, which can take off independently, ensuring the tank's aerial vision and enhancing its battlefield situational awareness. The VT-5U also has the capability of "manned-unmanned conversion." In high-risk combat situations, VT- 5U crews can get out of the vehicle if necessary and fight with a remotely controlled tank, turning the king of land warfare into an unmanned combat vehicle. Revolutionary doctrinal changes are in the making.
• UACV units are part of PLA Air Force. The latest FH-97A with stealth design, a new type of autonomous UAV formation system, that can form a dense formation and efficiently coordinate with manned combat aircraft provide it with intelligence, information and firepower support to perform air superiority operations, air defense suppression and air escort missions, has been exhibited.
• Chinese companies are leaders in the global civilian drone industry. China is the second largest drone market in the world after the US. As of 2020, more than 80% of civilian drones are made by Chinese companies.
• India is at least 5-10 years behind China, USA, Russia, Israel, Turkey and Iran in the Drone Technology Race

Future of Tank

Air War

Nuclear Warfare

OSINT

SATCOM

PLA Theory of Victory

• System Destruction Warfare
• Informatised warfare to Intelligentised warfare. Want to capitalise AI, big data, advanced computing, 5G, Quantum Computing.
• Intelligentised warfare has seven trends.
• Shift from strong beating the weak to the intelligent beating the dull.
• From destructive power to manipulative cognition.
• From human- based to human machine collaboration.
• From big eats small to fast eats slow.
• From winning through integration to winning through clusters.
• From military dominance to hybrid warfare.
• From practical test to experimental exercise.
• Formidable arsenal of medium and long range pecision missiles, incl hypersonic missiles. Has a robust anti- access/ area denial(A2/AD) System.

PLA Weakness

• Lacks experience, trust, cross domain comn needed to effectively conduct joint and combined ops.
• Empowering soldiers at the lowest tac levels. Rigid structure of PLA and conformist nature of communist political system and society do not promote or reward tactical initiative and rapid adaptation.
• Logistics.PLA would attack critical digital systems and physical nodes.
• Allies, partners and global posture China has only one formal alliance North Korea.
• Long history of corruption and coup proofing.
• Lead to promotions based on political loyalty rather than competency.
• Lack of trust in junior leaders, lack of tactical initiative, aversion to speaking truth to power, ineffective decision making due to less candid discussion during planning process.
• Regime security overrides national security.
• One child policy weakens military strength. Casualties cause many families to lose their only child resulting demoralisation of population.

What can India Do

• Gain and maintain software advantage. Quality of software will determine our primacy in collecting and analysing information, developing operating picture, thwarting enemy attacks, identifying opportunities in time and space to most effectively attack and helping with target selection.
• Constellation of low cost space based assets can play a critical role in defending against missile attack particularly hypersonic missiles.
• Create a career field of military pers for software developers, data scientists, AI engineers.
• Ensure resilience in our ability to sense, communicate, attack and supply
• Undermine adversary’s censorship system.
• Undermine adversary command system.
• Evolve deliberate war planning
• Implement public private partnership model between the government, industry, academia, investors and civil society.

Recommendations

“I’ve got no time for new technology – I’ve got a battle to fig

America's greatest military theorist, Air Force Colonel John Boyd,

used to say .............

“When I was a young officer, I was taught that if you have air superiority, land superiority and sea superiority, you win. Well, in Vietnam we had air superiority, land superiority and sea superiority, but we lost. So I realized there is something more to it.”

Q & A