The Global Electric Two and Three Wheeler Emerging Market Overview

Tom Courtright

Nuwong Chollacoop

Carlos Felipe Pardo

Annika Berlin

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Background

• This report set out to understand the characteristics, uptake and overall market of electric two- and three- wheelers in Africa, Asia and Latin America
• This work is part of the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Global Electric Mobility Programme

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The Global Report

• Introduction
• Methodology
• General report overview

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• Africa
• Asia
• Latin America

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• Q&A

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Methodology & Definitions

• Project team compiled database of existing electric two- and three-wheeler models in each of the target regions on 40+ specifications.
• Interviews with key stakeholders, including retailers, manufacturers, and investors, regional and association bodies involved in the e-mobility sector.

(excluded from this analysis)

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The database

• Sourced from interviews and internet searches
• 800 models in the database
• Open for viewing, edit upon request
• Linked to dashboard

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(Too large to see in a presentation, please check in the link https://bit.ly/unep-e23w-database

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The Visualizer (beta)

https://bit.ly/unep-e23w-visualizer

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ICE 2&3W Types

• 800 models of e2&3W
• The domination of manufacturing in Asia – China in particular – and some similar usages has led to similarities across the markets.
• Models are often rebranded or slightly altered across regions.

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Scooters – Use Cases

• Personal transportation, commercial passenger and delivery trips.
• East and Southern Asia; Latin America; Francophone and North Africa.
• In Asia, scooters are used for personal use, commercial passengers, and cargo delivery.

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Scooters - Specifications

Internal Combustion Engines

• Piaggio, Vespa, Haojue, Yamaha, and Honda are common brands.
• Usually under 125 cc and have automatic transmissions.

EVs

• Typically lower-powered, with 1-3 kW motors
• Dominated by East Asian market, with lead-acid versions increasingly exported elsewhere

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ICE Motorcycles – Use Cases

• Commercial passenger and delivery trips, smaller role in personal transport particularly by high-income users
• Widely used in Africa and to a lesser extent Latin America for commercial passenger and delivery trips

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Motorcycles – Specifications

Internal Combustion Engines

• Common, low-cost models usually 100-150 cc engines
• Fuel tanks usually capable of 300+ km

Electric

• Nominal motor power 3 kW
• Batteries averaging 3.4 kWh, claimed range around 85 km

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Passenger 3W – Use Case

• Known as tuktuks or auto-rickshaws, passenger 3W are almost exclusively used for commercial passenger transport
• Carry 3-6 passengers, dependent on design and local regulations
• Provide both arterial and door-to-door services

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Passenger 3W - Specifications

Internal Combustion Engine

• One or two benches behind a driver, typically covered
• Between 150-250 cc engines

Electric

• Average 1.6 kW motor
• E-rickshaws: lower cost, often lead-acid batteries under 2 kW
• Electric autorickshaws: higher cost, li-on batteries, 2-8 kW

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ICE Cargo 3W – Use Cases

• Cargo 3W come in several shapes and sizes but are generally used to move goods, either from warehouse to smaller shop or small shop to home.
• They can also be used for informal passenger transport or converted for passengers.

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Cargo 3W – Specifications

Internal Combustion Engine

• Often flatbeds with seating for a driver plus one, can also be cargo boxes
• Similar in power and capabilities to passenger 3W

Electric

• Average of 3.1 kW motors
• In downtowns for short-distance cargo deliveries, but primarily lead-acid

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Trimoto

• A variety of designs with three wheels but only 1+1 seat
• Can have two wheels in front, or in back
• Primarily personal use; mostly higher-income users, and some for disabled users

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Battery Types

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Charging Infrastructure

• Charging vehicles while the battery is in-vehicle is known as either plug-in charging or simply charging
• Can be done from standard sockets or from charging stations (public or private)

• Battery swapping consists of removing depleted battery and swapping it for charged battery
• Done at swap stations, which can be cabinets or dedicated shops

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Charging

Swapping

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E2&3W Charging & Swapping

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Charging Infra - Use Case

• Better for lower daily mileage vehicles, such as personal vehicles
• Higher CAPEX

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• Better fit for higher daily mileage vehicles, such as commercial passenger and deliveries
• Can also work for higher-income places with little charging infrastructure (i.e. Taiwan)
• Higher OPEX

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Charging

Swapping

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Swapping Infra

• Largely ad hoc set up
• Requires additional costs (rent, labor)
• Much more oversight

• Lower-cost rollout
• Makes more sense for smaller batteries
• Less jobs, less oversight

Shopfront

Cabinets

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Motor Types

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Africa

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Current State – ICE 2&3W – Africa

• An estimated 27 million 2&3W
• Personal 2W in North Africa, Francophone Africa
• Moto-taxis in the boda belt from Dar es Salaam to Dakar
• Informal delivery across the continent

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FIA Foundation / Amend

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Current State – E2&3W – Africa

• Less than 1% of 2&3W in Africa
• 60+ startups
• In process of adapting Asian products for African market
• There are lead-acid 2&3W for personal use arriving in several countries

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Zembo

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E2&3W Characteristics - Africa

• More 72V systems in Africa compared to Asia & Lat Am
• Only basic assembly so far in most cases in Africa
• Scooter motors average 2 kW
• Motorcycles, passenger and cargo 3W average 2.7 and 3.1 kW

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Industry Structure - Africa

• Direct retail: sale of personal 2W, with little post-sale maintenance
• Ecosystem: assembly, providing vehicle, charging & swapping options, maintenance

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Key Challenges - Africa

• Delayed deployment of E2&3W models by Asian OEM giants
• Grid infrastructure still lacking, especially rural
• Capital costs of swap model
• High, restricted financing rates
• Limited government capacity for subsidies, incentives

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Projections – Africa

• The transition to E2&3W is expected to be led by commercial 2W and battery swapping
• Tax incentives are critical
• Will add significant demand to the grid

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Asia

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Current State – ICE 2&3W – Asia

• Already has the majority of the worlds 2&3W – 490 million
• High personal usage throughout
• Commercial passenger usage in several SE Asian countries
• Delivery usage increasing everywhere

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ICE 2&3W

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Current State – E2&3W – Asia

Transition to E2&3W

• E2&3W first pushed in China with regulations over 10 years ago
• Initially using lead-acid battery, moving to Li-on
• Battery swapping first pioneered by Gogoro in Taiwan
• 55% of 2022 3W in India is E3W

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E2&3W Characteristics - Asia

• E-scooters most common
• Expanding Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) to ease transition
• 30% larger battery capacity (kWh) and 4 times higher motor power (kW) for cargo E3W on the average to carry higher load with similar travel range
• E3W largely still lead-acid battery (50% in 2021 for India) with transition to Li-on

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Industry Structure - Asia

• Mainly dominated by Chinese brands (imported or joint-ventured) with some emerging local companies like VinFast
• Rising market for India (e3w) and Vietnam (e2w) with e2w taxi/delivery in Indonesia & Thailand
• Mostly manufactured in the region for self usage and export to others (esp. Africa)

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Key Challenges - Asia

• Harmonized standards for lower expansion cost and faster development
• Increase of swapping/charging infrastructures to catch up increase of e2&3w usages including cross-border charging compatibility
• Proper handling of used batteries
• Regulatory improvements for those not yet using e2&3w

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Projections – Asia

• 2&3W expected to level off with continued economic growth
• China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam market leaders
• India growing usage on e3w delivery with strong govt support
• Indonesia accelerating with subsidies and local manufacturing

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Latin America

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Current State – ICE 2&3W - Lat Am

• Around 62 million 2&3W across Latin America
• Personal motorcycle usage mostly high-income
• Moto-taxis in Brazil, spreading elsewhere
• Deliveries across high-income cities
• Fleeing public transport towards 2-3w

Photo courtesy of Niu

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Current State – E2&3W - Lat Am

• Only a handful of battery swap pilots
• Some artisanal conversions & retrofitting
• Less focus overall on E2&3W than Africa & Asia
• Very few public locations to charge, swapping is virtually non-existent

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E2&3W Characteristics - Latin America

• Predominantly Asia- manufactured
• Charged at home, swappable batteries (not swapped)

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Industry Structure - Lat Am

• Mostly led by those who also import ICE 23w
• Some support from associations, trickled down from larger vehicle promotion
• Some support from lithium producers (e.g. Bolivia, Mexico) for increased local assembly & manufacturing

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Key Challenges – Lat Am

• Regulatory improvements
• Reduction in levies and fees
• Lack of (persistent) tax incentives
• Lack of clarity on “rules of the road” for e2-3w
• No inclusion in national-level laws
• Lack of proper infrastructure
• Lack of charging / swapping

Key challenges

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Projections – Latin America

• The transition will be dependent on cost of E2&3W and the rollout of infrastructure (charging or swapping).
• Regulations and incentives are minimal and scattered

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Driving Ahead

• An estimated 570 million 2&3W today globally, providing transport at lower cost
• 2&3W are low-hanging fruit for electrification, and are the farthest EV segment ahead
• Need for further support to accelerate the transition, including import tax reductions or industrial incentives

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Q&A

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Contact us:

unep-emobility@un.org

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