Revolutions in Military Affairs

Tools for Understanding the Past

And

Shaping the Future

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Matt Caffrey

Division Equivalents - �In Theater May 1940

Germany Allies

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Division Eq 137.5 158.5

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Ratio 1 1.15

Weapon Systems -� In Theater May 1940

Germany Allies %

Tanks 3,227 4,017 0.80

Combat Aircraft 2,740 2,087 1.31

A/T Guns 12,830 8,882 1.44

AA Guns 8,700 5,203 1.67

Field Guns 15,969 9,727 1.64

Heavy Guns 2,900 4,635 0.63

Tank Comparisons

Pz Kpfw II

CHAR S-35

Aircraft Comparisons

Germany’s�Two Wars With France

World War I World War II

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French Allies UK, Belgium UK, Belgium, Holland

German # 11 million 2 1/2 M

Gr KIA 2 million 44 thousand

Duration 50 months 2 months

Outcome Defeat Victory

The Caffrey Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Dupuy

Mini Ball -- Maxi Impact

Civil War Casualties�Equivalent to Today's Population

1860 population 32 M - casualties 714,000

1990 population 250 M - casualties 5,500,000

The Innovation Cycle

• Casualty rates at historical norm
• New Technology emerges
• Technology is exploited in weapons, etc..
• Casualty rates increase
• New tactics/operations/organizations evolve
• Casualty rates may increase and or decrease
• Tactics / operations / organizations mature
• Casualty rates return to historic norm

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Military Technical Revolution

• Scientific/technical advance
• Item (weapon, vehicle, comm) that exploits that advance
• Tactics, operational concept that best employs item.
• Organization that facilitates tactics/ operational concepts

Impacts of Absolute and Relative MTR Position

The Battle of Agincourt

The Battle of Agincourt

The Battle of Agincourt

The Battle of Agincourt

The Battle of Agincourt

The Battle of Agincourt

Castle

Adapting �Castle

Ditch

Ft McHenry

Liberty �Island

December 7, 1941

Early Carrier Operations

The Light Carrier Shoho Prior To Sinking

Why Do Nations Fall Behind in MTRs?

The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

The History to Application Cycle

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

The “Unique” Fallacy

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

1918; UK World Leader in Tank, Technology, Tactics & Organization

Doctrine is Force Structure

Great Britain

Tank

Battalions

Cavalry

Regiments

1918

48

46

1920

6

42

Horse Flesh vs Blitzkrieg

The Price of Folly

The “End of History” Fallacy

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

Senior Partner in Victory

Prepared to Fight WWI Better

The Price of Folly

Germany Gets It Right

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

Germany Gets It Right

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Wargame

Relative MTR Maturity

Relative MTR Maturity

German Land OB - 1944

Ratio of Divisions: 2.5 : 1

Impacts of MTRs

• Both sides immature

- both high casualty rates - American Civil War

• Both sides mature at similar rates

- casualty rates return to norm - War in Pacific

• One side matures more quickly

- side ahead low / side behind high - Fall of France

• Both sides mature

- casualty rates return to norm - Late WWII in Europe

The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Revolutions In Military Affairs�Concept Driven

• Concept Pull
• Procedures that implement concept
• Organization that facilitates procedures
• Technology that enables / facilitates

The USMC Gets It Right

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Wargame

MTR

RMA

Revolutions in Military Affairs�Technology vs Concept

• Technology push - reactive
• Concept pull - proactive

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• Technology more common
• Concept more broad

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• Both require hardware, procedural and organizational change to achieve their full potential

MTR & RMA

Common Traits

• Maturity is the product of all elements
• Relative maturity key
• Numbers can overcome greater maturity
• Both require hardware, procedural and organizational change to achieve their full potential

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The RMA

The RMA

RMA

Transformation

Advantages of the Term “Transformation”

• Was NOT used by previous administration
• Avoids silly debate over how big a change has to be to be considered “revolutionary”
• Correctly implies broad scope of change

Main Points To Remember

• Maturity is the product of all elements
• Relative maturity key
• Numbers can overcome greater maturity

Be Alert to Both Types of RMAs

• Tech - Reactive
• Concept - Proactive

Toward an RMA in the National Interest

• What are our national objectives?
• What concept of war can best achieve those objectives?
• Quest for strategy that works:
• for Democracies
• against Dictators
• What technologies are needed to implement?