The Effect og Global & Regional Dynamics and Quest for Peace: Sudan Conflict

Waele Africa: Global Peace Prayer for Sudan & Other War-Torn Countries 27.05.2023

Appreciation & Thanks

• A great interfaith forum with participation of religious leaders, Representatives of religious, Human rights organizations, peace forums, prominent Scholars
• Thanks to Waele Africa and those behind it for organizing this
• Thanks to Vison Quest for hosting this event
• Humbled to participate and share my thoughts
• Special thanks to Fatuma Hussein from Vision Quest for the invitation

Every time conflicts result in wars in Africa, we hear many opinions but a look at history indicates most devastating wars were in Europe I

• The 100-years intermittent war 1334 – 1475 between France and England for domination
• The 30-years’ war 1618 to 1648 started as war between Catholic and Protestant states that formed the Holy Roman Empire
• 30-years’ war One of the longest and most brutal wars in human history, with more than 8 million casualties resulting from military battles as well as from the famine and disease caused by the conflict.

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Most Devastating Wars in Europe II

• WWI 1914 – 1918: total number of deaths about 20 million, half of them civilians includes a rivalry between European powers for domination
• WWII: 1939 – 1945 40 – 60 million deaths make it the bloodiest conflict, as well as the largest war, in history.
• Many of the modern conflicts we see as in Palestine/Israel, Myanmar, Syria, Bosnia, Nigeria can be traced to colonial history
• Perhaps due to those wars the trend is to have peace in Europe
• Usually, men who start wars believing it will end in short period, women & Children and elderly who pay price, but women are not involved in peace efforts

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What is a conflict

• A conflict is a struggle or disagreement between two or more parties characterized by opposing interests, goals, values, or beliefs. It can occur at various levels, from interpersonal conflicts between individuals to larger-scale conflicts between nations or groups.
• Worst case scenario develops to war with devastating consequences
• The important thing is to resolve a conflict before it escalates and may lead to war with devastating consequences

Reflections on conflict in Sudan

• It leaves impressions as it is in the capital city
• We see it live on TV
• But there are many ongoing wars in rural areas, we hardly take notice of, as we talk, people die of wars and consequences, lack of medical services, famine, sexual violence
• Imagine you live comfortably at home, and suddenly you have to leave everything you have, physical and mental, you even leave your memories behind, take refuge in a new place, start life again, this is if you are lucky and survive it, psychological burden you live with

Conflict Dynamics

• Conflict dynamics can be affected significantly by global and regional factors:
• in terms of causes (Direct/Indirect) , duration (with foreign interference takes longer), intensity, and resolution.
• Global Power Dynamics: Actions of super or powerful countries, such as military interventions or diplomatic efforts, can escalate or de-escalate conflicts .
• Iraq war, Ukraine by superpowers: Yemen –Libya proxy war for regional powers
• Conflicts can also be exacerbated by global power rivalries and resources competition, especially in regions where major powers have strategic interests.

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Conflict Dynamics 2

• All superpowers are competing to win Africa politically and economically: Africa Summits
• International law and norms established by global institutions, such as the UN, can influence conflict dynamics by putting pressure on warring parties. Violations of international law or the disregard for established norms can undermine conflict resolution efforts.
• Many of current conflicts shaped by legacies of colonialism, but we cannot continue blaming colonialists after 50 or 100 years

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Economic Factors

• Economic factors at the global and regional levels can contribute to conflict dynamics. Competition over valuable resources, such as oil or minerals, can be a driving force behind conflicts as in DRC where rich resources become a liability instead of an asset
• In regions of high levels of poverty or marginalization, economic inequalities, trade imbalances, systemic poverty, discrimination, removal of safety nets and issues related to development can contribute to conflict.
• Developed countries and international institutions such IMF/World Bank imposing unjust economic policies that affect the poor, imposing free flow of goods that destroy local producers

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Economic Factors II

• Interests and/or competitions among regional powers can create and escalate conflicts one hand and can help in conflict mediation and resolutions. Regional powers such as AU and ASEAN, Arab League can play a role in mediation and solving conflicts.
• Neo-liberal policies that assume poverty is one's fault, poor because lazy, are against State intervention in the economy, education, health unrestrained free market

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Globalization Digital media

• Conflict can spread across borders more easily as a result of globalization, escalating local tensions.
• Digital and social media platforms can intensify conflicts by spreading misinformation or aiding in the recruitment of armed groups OR can be used for the common good
• Large-scale refugee and migration flows, which are frequently the result of conflicts, can have regional and international repercussions.
• These movements have the potential to deplete resources, fuel social unrest, and even spark war in their host nations. Migration issue in election
• As the flow of refugees may have an impact on neighboring countries, they can also affect regional stability and security dynamics like in Bangladesh.

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Arms Trade

• Global and regional arms trade and military support can fuel conflicts by providing combatants with weapons and resources.
• Arms embargoes or restrictions imposed by the international community can, on the other hand, influence conflict dynamics by limiting access to weapons.
• The impact of these factors on conflict dynamics can vary depending on the specific context of the conflict and the region in question. Local factors, historical grievances, and cultural dynamics also play significant roles in shaping conflicts.

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Conflict Resolution

• Resolving conflicts often requires:
• Effective communication, negotiation, and compromise.
• Mediation or intervention by a neutral third party may also be necessary in some cases.
• The aim of conflict resolution is to find a mutually satisfactory solution or a peaceful way to manage differences while preserving relationships and minimizing negative consequences.
• Religions have a moral authority to engage

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Sudan: Facts and Figures

• 3rd largest country in Africa after South Sudan separation in 2011, it was largest
• 50 million population
• About 100s of ethnic groups
• Rich in natural resources: Water, vast agricultural land, can be wheat breadbasket to Africa,
• Rich in mineral resources such as gold, oil, an estimated $1.9 billion in gold smuggled out of the country, an amount nearly equal to Sudan’s legitimate mining operations in 2022.
• Produces 2/3 of gum Arabic, important ingredient in foods, pharmaceuticals, printing & painting

Facts & Figures 2

• Agricultural products include sugar cane, sorghum, groundnuts, sesame seed, millet, bananas, wheat, cotton
• 1^st Islamist State in modern African history established by the Mahdists (Mahdist State) 1885-1898, overthrew Ottoman-Egyptian rule, terminated by Anglo-Egyptian Forces
• Toppled dictatorial regimes through peaceful struggle in 64/85 and 2019

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Sudan Conflict

• Violence is not new to Sudan. Military rule has plagued the country for 55/67 years
• Civil wars engulfed the South, West, and East, as marginalised peripheries demanded a fair share of wealth and power.
• They resulted in millions of deaths and millions more of displacements.
• This time around, people watched fighting breaking out in Khartoum on TV screens in real time.
• What is taking place in the capital city reflects an accumulation of political, social, and economic grievances against the state. Under military or civilian rule, Northern and Central Sudanese elites have always been in charge of the state. To refer to it as a fight between two generals would be oversimplifying things.

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The optimism for peace

• Sudan is endowed with a vibrant civil society
• It has a vibrant, dynamic women activists
• A long history of peceful resistance
• Sudanese people are peaceloving, very generous people
• There has been peace agreements, but just involving armed groups
• Need to involve civil society, all stakeholders

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