181+ DTE OTM Call Strategy

Unusual Whales ft ya boy Wags

** NFA = NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **

Long (Duration) Whales Do It Better **NFA

• 181+ DTE
• More Strict Winners (both in quantity and percentage) than all other durations
• Slightly edges out 91-180 DTE positive outcomes

Straight to the point: Mechanics **NFA

Entry

1. OTM Call Alerts with at least 181 days to expiry
2. If Alert reaches -20%, skip it
3. Watch Alert for 7 days at most
4. Buy contract only if original Alert spot price reaches +30% return

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Exit

1. Cut losses if original Alert spot price reaches -20%
2. Take profits in [+50%, +100%) range

Straight to the point: Tracking **NFA

• The UW Alert filter:

https://unusualwhales.com/watchlist/b4fd73a9-16a7-4485-9790-25e51a77f7bd

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• The Google Sheet tracker:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIYEHiYeJdHiv9aTZ-yecKz1nsbP2bV92TYMlYXWVuk/edit#gid=0

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Details: What are “positive outcomes”? **NFA

• Strict Winners
• These Alerts reach +20% on the Alert price
• They NEVER decline to -20% inside the 6-week historical period post-Alert

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• Swingers with Positive First Direction
• These Alerts also reach +20% on the Alert price
• These Alerts unfortunately drop to -20% inside the 6-week period post-Alert

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** We want to follow Alerts that go up first!

Details: What outcomes are we avoiding? **NFA

• Strict Losers
• These Alerts reach -20% on the Alert price and never reach +20%

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• Strict Dud
• These Alerts never reach +20% or -20%

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• Swingers with Negative First Direction
• These Alerts also reach -20% on the Alert price
• These Alerts reach +20% inside the 6-week period post-Alert

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** We are skipping Alerts that go down first!

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Details: Won’t we have to wait forever? **NFA

Nope.

• The next day after the Alert is the median for achieving either +20% or -20%
• Most positive initial directions, which are what we are interested in, are established within the first 7 days of the Alert

Details: Why wait until +30%? **NFA

Details: Why take profit at [+50%, +100%)? **NFA

Median Max Gain

• Remember, we are skipping all those [+20%, +30%) outcomes
• The [+50%, +100%) range is the median outcome:
• Most common for Strict Winners
• Most common for Swingers with Positive First Direction before reversing

Details: 11+ Days to Adjust Trade **NFA

We have lots of time with these

• Median time to reversal for Swinger with Positive First Direction: 11+ Days
• Median time to max gain for Strict Winners: 11+ Days

Details: Avoid Diamond Hands **NFA

Bad during the 6-week period

• 116 of 166 (70%) have a final direction <0%

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• You have a long time on these contracts, so maybe it will turn around…

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• Not ideal for this strategy though

Questions?

** Remember that I am not giving you financial advice **