Public Opinion on Abortion Messaging Post-Dobbs���Findings based on a national survey��September 2022�
Celinda Lake
1
Methodology
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this mixed mode survey. The survey was conducted September 14-22, 2022. The survey reached a total of 1,750 likely voters nationwide which includes a base sample of 1,000 likely voters with oversamples of 100 African American, 100 Latinx, 50 African American women, 100 Chinese-American, and 100 South Asian-American likely voters, and 300 likely voters across battleground states (AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI, NH, FL, NC, OH). These oversamples, except the Chinese-American and South Asian-American likely voter oversamples, were weighted down into the base sample to their proper proportion of the universe for a total sample size of 1,001. The Chinese-American and South Asian-American samples were kept separate from the base. We also surveyed 150 new Democratic midterm voters under 40 and 150 Democratic surge voters under 40, which was kept separate from the base sample.
Survey respondents for the online portion were drawn from an online panel and survey respondents for the telephone portion were drawn from Target Smart. The base sample of likely voters was weighted by region, gender by region, age, race, gender by race, age by race, party ID, and education. African American likely voters were weighted by gender, region, age, party ID, and education. African American women likely voters were weighted by region, age, and education. Latinx likely voters were weighted by region, age, party ID, and education. Chinese-American likely voters were weighted by region and age. South Asian-American likely voters were weighted by gender, region, age, party ID, and education. Battleground likely voters were weighted by gender, age, party ID, and race. New Democratic midterm voters under 40 were weighted by region and race. Democratic surge voters under 40 were weighted by gender, region, age, and race.
The margin of error is +/-2.5% for likely voters. The margin of error for the Chinese and South Asian-American samples is +/-9.8%. The margin of error for the new Democratic midterm voters under 40 and the Democratic surge voters under 40 is +/-8.0%.
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Summary of Key Findings
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Summary of Key Findings
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Message Box
| Power Politicians are taking away our freedom and our power to control our personal decisions. These bans go beyond abortion. It’s about who has power over you, who has the authority to make decisions for you, and who can control how your future is going to be. When Roe v Wade fell, the rights of 36 million women across 27 states were taken away. This generation and the next generation will have fewer rights than we did. | |
Miscarriage No matter where a person lives, what they look like, or how much money they have, women, not politicians should be able to make their own decisions about their own lives, including when it comes to abortion care and miscarriage management. Abortion bans don't just affect those getting an abortion, but also create uncertainty around medical procedures related to pregnancy. Already, women having miscarriages have not been able to access care. Our rights are unraveling and are now hanging by a thread. | Why a Democratic candidate favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. | Take Away /Freedom Across the country, an individual’s right to make personal decisions is being taken away. Sixteen states already have passed government mandates and have little to no access to abortion. I support everyone having the freedom to make decisions for their own body with their doctor, partner, or faith leader and politicians should not interfere. Women face their own unique circumstances, and one size fits all government mandates do not work. |
| Control /Extreme Agenda Politicians trying to ban abortion want to control us. A faction of MAGA Republicans works tirelessly to strip people of their right to abortion yet vote against things like sex education, birth control, affordable child care, paid family and medical leave, and other measures that help families thrive. They are going state-by-state to ban abortion and send doctors and women to jail. We shouldn't let a few people with an extreme agenda decide what freedom and rights we have. | |
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Abortion Stance
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A majority of likely voters are supportive of abortion.
Legal in all cases
Some restrictions
3% don’t know/refused
Limited cases
All illegal
Here are four statements. Please select which of them is closest to your own view.
58
38
7
Across subgroups, majorities are supportive of abortion. New Democratic midterm voters under 40, Democratic surge voters under 40, and Democrat likely voters are the most likely to be supportive of abortion. Seven in ten South Asian-American likely voters are supportive of abortion, while four in ten Chinese-American likely voters are anti-abortion.
| Support Abortion | Anti-abortion |
New Democratic midterm | 88 | 11 |
Democratic surge | 88 | 9 |
Women under 50 | 61 | 36 |
Women 50+ | 59 | 39 |
White | 57 | 40 |
Black | 62 | 34 |
Latinx | 57 | 39 |
Black women | 66 | 30 |
Chinese Americans | 56 | 40 |
South Asian Americans | 70 | 26 |
Democrat | 78 | 20 |
Independent | 68 | 28 |
Republican | 39 | 58 |
Here are four statements. Please select which of them is closest to your own view.
Legal in all cases
Some restrictions
Limited cases
All illegal
58
38
3% Not sure/Prefer not to answer
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Motivation to Vote
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Nearly all of likely voters are motivated to vote in this November election, and the intensity of their motivation is high.
Some people feel very motivated to vote in this November election while others don't feel motivated at all, and many are in between. How about you--how motivated are you to vote in November--are you VERY motivated, SOMEWHAT motivated, NOT too motivated, or NOT at all motivated to vote?
| Somewhat motivated | | Not too motivated |
| Very motivated | | Not at all motivated |
Support abortion voters | 80% very motivated, 95% motivated |
Anti-choice voters | 77% very motivated, 95% motivated |
10
At least seven in ten women under and over 50, Black, Latinx, and white likely voters, Black women, Democrat and Republican likely voters, and new Democratic midterm voters under 40 are very motivated to vote. Democratic surge voters under 40 and South Asian-American likely voters are motivated, but intensity isn’t as high as other subgroups. It will be key to focus on these demographic subgroups, of whom a solid majority are supportive of abortion, to turn out to vote.
| Somewhat motivated | | Not too motivated |
| Very motivated | | Not at all motivated |
| Very motivated | Motivated |
New Democratic midterm | 77 | 94 |
Democratic surge | 64 | 91 |
Women under 50 | 72 | 94 |
Women 50+ | 82 | 97 |
White | 80 | 97 |
Black | 72 | 93 |
Latinx | 76 | 91 |
Black women | 75 | 94 |
Chinese Americans | 67 | 93 |
South Asian Americans | 64 | 91 |
Democrat | 80 | 95 |
Independent | 63 | 92 |
Republican | 82 | 97 |
Some people feel very motivated to vote in this November election while others don't feel motivated at all, and many are in between. How about you--how motivated are you to vote in November--are you VERY motivated, SOMEWHAT motivated, NOT too motivated, or NOT at all motivated to vote?
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A Candidate’s Abortion Stance
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A plurality of likely voters would not support a candidate with whom they agreed on most issues but took a different position than theirs on abortion. Two in ten likely voters are single issue voters on the issue of abortion, saying they would definitely not support this candidate. Likely voters who support abortion are ten points more likely to be single issue voters on the issue of abortion than anti-choice likely voters are.
If you agreed with a candidate on most issues, but they took a different position than yours on abortion, would you still definitely support them, probably support them, probably not support them, definitely not support them, or would it not make a difference to you?
| Probably support them | | Probably not support them |
| Definitely still support them | | Definitely not support them |
| Definitely Not | Probably Not |
Support abortion voters | 25 | 26 |
Anti-choice voters | 15 | 21 |
13
New Democratic midterm and Democratic surge voters under 40 and Democrat likely voters would not support a candidate who took a different position than theirs on abortion. Across subgroups, a plurality say they would not support the candidate, but none breaks a majority. Latinx likely voters are the most split on this issue.
| Support them | Not support |
New Democratic midterm | 29 | 59 |
Democratic surge | 21 | 60 |
Women under 50 | 26 | 50 |
Women 50+ | 26 | 48 |
White | 34 | 44 |
Black | 32 | 45 |
Latinx | 40 | 39 |
Black women | 30 | 46 |
Chinese Americans | 29 | 37 |
South Asian Americans | 34 | 45 |
Democrat | 24 | 56 |
Independent | 36 | 29 |
Republican | 42 | 37 |
| Probably support them | | Probably not support them |
| Definitely still support them | | Definitely not support them |
If you agreed with a candidate on most issues, but they took a different position than yours on abortion, would you still definitely support them, probably support them, probably not support them, definitely not support them, or would it not make a difference to you?
14
At least a quarter of new Democratic midterm and Democratic surge voters under 40, Democrat likely voters, women under 50, and Black likely voters, are single issue voters on the issue of abortion.
| Definitely not support them |
If you agreed with a candidate on most issues, but they took a different position than yours on abortion, would you still definitely support them, probably support them, probably not support them, definitely not support them, or would it not make a difference to you?
15
Whether we refer to states or federal bans, a plurality of likely voters say they would be more likely to support a Democratic candidate who is against these abortion bans. A federal ban is the strongest.
If you heard that a Democratic candidate is against allowing states to ban abortion, how would this make you feel about them? Would it make you much MORE likely to support them in the next election, somewhat more likely, somewhat LESS likely to support them in the next election, much less likely, or would it not affect your support for them?* | If you heard that a Democratic candidate is against a federal abortion ban, how would this make you feel about them? Would it make you much MORE likely to support them in the next election, somewhat more likely, somewhat LESS likely to support them in the next election, much less likely, or would it not affect your support for them?* |
(+12) | (+17) |
| It would make me somewhat more likely to support them in the next election | | It would make me somewhat less likely to support them in the next election |
| It would make me much more likely to support them in the next election | | It would make me much less likely to support them in the next election |
*Split sampled
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Conversely, whether we refer to states or federal bans, a plurality of likely voters say they would be less likely to support a Republican candidate who supports these abortion bans.
If you heard that a Republican candidate supports allowing states to ban abortion, how would this make you feel about them? Would it make you much MORE likely to support them in the next election, somewhat more likely, somewhat LESS likely to support them in the next election, much less likely, or would it not affect your support for them?* | If you heard that a Republican candidate supports a federal abortion ban, how would this make you feel about them? Would it make you much MORE likely to support them in the next election, somewhat more likely, somewhat LESS likely to support them in the next election, much less likely, or would it not affect your support for them?* |
(+20) | (+20) |
*Split sampled
| It would make me somewhat more likely to support them in the next election | | It would make me somewhat less likely to support them in the next election |
| It would make me much more likely to support them in the next election | | It would make me much less likely to support them in the next election |
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A majority say that a candidate for US Senate, Governor, US Congress, or state legislature’s stance on abortion is very important. Attorney General is not far behind.
How important is a candidate's stance on abortion for each of the following offices - is it very important, somewhat important, a little important, or not at all important?*
*Split sampled
| Somewhat important | | A little important |
| Very important | | Not important at all |
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Democratic surge voters under 40, women over 50, white, and South Asian-American likely voters say that Governor is the office where a candidate’s stance on abortion is most important. A candidate for US Congress’s stance on abortion is most important for women under 50, Latinx and Chinese-American likely voters, and Black women. Many of these group rate very important for Senators. New Democratic midterm voters under 40 rate the offices of Governor and US Congress similarly.
% Very Important | All | New Dem Midterm | Dem Surge | Women under 50 | Women 50+ | White | Black | Latinx | Black Women | Chinese^ | South Asian^ |
US Senate | 59 | 80 | 61 | 55 | 68 | 58 | 73 | 57 | 67 | 56 | 53 |
Governor | 59 | 84 | 72 | 53 | 75 | 60 | 67 | 56 | 69 | 47 | 65 |
US Congress | 58 | 84 | 62 | 57 | 70 | 56 | 71 | 64 | 73 | 57 | 55 |
State legislators | 58 | 82 | 67 | 56 | 70 | 58 | 67 | 60 | 66 | 43 | 62 |
Attorney General | 47 | 69 | 55 | 39 | 57 | 48 | 57 | 33 | 52 | 39 | 58 |
How important is a candidate's stance on abortion for each of the following offices - is it very important, somewhat important, a little important, or not at all important?*
Women under 50 as well as Latinx and Chinese-American likely voters need to be educated about the role for Attorneys General.
*Split sampled
^Note small n size
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Over half of likely voters say they think that the Governor and state legislators play a big role in making abortion policy. A plurality of likely voters think the Attorney General plays a role but not a big role.
How much of a role do you think that elected leaders in each of the following offices play in making abortion policy - do they play a big role, somewhat of a role, a small role, or no role at all in making abortion policy?*
*Split sampled
| Somewhat of a role | | A small role |
| A big role | | No role at all |
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New Democratic midterm and Democratic surge voters under 40 think that the US Congress plays the biggest role in making abortion policy. Chinese and South Asian-American, and Black likely voters think the US Senate and Congress play the biggest roles, while Latinx likely voters think it is state legislators and the Governor. No one thinks the Attorney General plays a big role in making abortion policy.
% A big role | All | New Dem Midterm | Dem Surge | Women under 50 | Women 50+ | White | Black | Latinx | Black Women | Chinese^ | South Asian^ |
Governor | 55 | 51 | 56 | 48 | 62 | 55 | 59 | 53 | 56 | 61 | 43 |
State legislators | 55 | 63 | 59 | 48 | 56 | 53 | 59 | 54 | 54 | 61 | 53 |
US Congress | 49 | 65 | 66 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 65 | 45 | 60 | 61 | 53 |
US Senate | 47 | 64 | 62 | 49 | 42 | 46 | 66 | 40 | 60 | 62 | 54 |
Attorney General | 23 | 37 | 23 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 30 | 19 | 24 | 32 | 25 |
How much of a role do you think that elected leaders in each of the following offices play in making abortion policy - do they play a big role, somewhat of a role, a small role, or no role at all in making abortion policy?*
*Split sampled
^Note small n size
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Statements
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Likely voters are most likely to agree with statements made by a Republican candidate that talks about science, adoption, and “late-term” abortions. Likely voters strongly disagree that birth control is a state’s rights issue.
*Split sampled
49
45
49
53
Science makes it very clear that unborn babies are human beings who feel pain and have a heartbeat.* |
I believe we must make it easier for women facing difficult circumstances to choose adoption instead of abortion. And if that means they need some assistance, we should help them protect these lives.* |
Restricting late-term abortions is a reasonable consensus position.* |
Abortion should be a state's rights issue where each state decides.* |
Restricting late-term abortions is a reasonable consensus position, but Joe Biden and the Democrats reject both reason and consensus on this issue.* |
For 50 years, states have been unable to enact even modest protections for unborn children and now the American people get their voice back.* |
Birth control should be a state's rights issue where each state decides.* |
| Somewhat agree | | Somewhat agree |
| Strongly disagree | | Strongly agree |
36% of South Asian-American likely voters strongly agree
[TOP TIER] Here are some statements made by a Republican candidate. For this purpose of this survey, please suppose that this is your candidate, so when you react to these statements try to do so as if they were about a Republican candidate in your district in the U.S. Congress today. For each statement, please indicate whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement by the Republican candidate.
Sorted by % strongly agree
37% of women under 50 strongly agree
45% of Latinx, 35% of Black, and 30% of Black women likely voters strongly agree
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While a majority disagree with these statements, the statements by a Republican candidate that do NOT work on likely voters the most are statements about how saving the baby is worth losing the mother’s life and no exceptions, women should not cross state lines to access abortion care, and that pregnancy from rape is a part of God’s plan.
*Split sampled
| Somewhat agree | | Somewhat agree |
| Strongly disagree | | Strongly agree |
[TOP TIER] Here are some statements made by a Republican candidate. For this purpose of this survey, please suppose that this is your candidate, so when you react to these statements try to do so as if they were about a Republican candidate in your district in the U.S. Congress today. For each statement, please indicate whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement by the Republican candidate.
Sorted by % strongly disagree
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Statements made by a Democratic candidate receive majority agreement and intensity. Top testing statements made by a Democratic candidate include language on the freedom to decide, people making personal decisions for their own body, having the ability to decide if and when to have children, and opposition to jailing women, doctors, and nurses. Closely behind are “some politicians are going too far and banning abortion” and “every person’s life has its own unique circumstances; women, not politicians, should make their own personal decisions when it comes to abortion care.”
| Somewhat agree |
| Strongly agree |
*Split sampled
[TOP TIER] Here are some statements made by a Democratic candidate. For this purpose of this survey, please suppose that this is your candidate, so when you react to these statements try to do so as if they were about a Democratic candidate in your district in the U.S. Congress today. For each statement, please indicate whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement by the Democratic candidate.
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Messages
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The top-testing messages are Power, Miscarriage, and Take Away/Freedom. Likely voters respond to language on taking away our freedom and power, the effect on women who have miscarriages, an individual’s right to make personal decisions being taken away, and one-size-fits-all government mandates don’t work.
| Somewhat convincing |
| Very convincing |
*Split sampled
Here are some things that a Democratic candidate might say about why he/she favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. For each, please indicate whether you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all.
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Full Text of Messages*
[Power] Politicians are taking away our freedom and our power to control our personal decisions. These bans go beyond abortion. It’s about who has power over you, who has the authority to make decisions for you, and who can control how your future is going to be. When Roe v Wade fell, the rights of 36 million women across 27 states were taken away. This generation and the next generation will have fewer rights than we did. |
[Miscarriage] No matter where a person lives, what they look like, or how much money they have, women, not politicians should be able to make their own decisions about their own lives, including when it comes to abortion care and miscarriage management. Abortion bans don't just affect those getting an abortion, but also create uncertainty around medical procedures related to pregnancy. Already, women having miscarriages have not been able to access care. Our rights are unraveling and are now hanging by a thread. |
[Take Away/Freedom] Across the country, an individual’s right to make personal decisions is being taken away. Sixteen states already have passed government mandates and have little to no access to abortion. I support everyone having the freedom to make decisions for their own body with their doctor, partner, or faith leader and politicians should not interfere. Women face their own unique circumstances, and one size fits all government mandates do not work. |
Sorted by % Very Convincing
*Split sampled
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Full Text of Messages*
[Crushed] Women should be able to make medical decisions about abortion care with their doctors, as they make many other important health decisions every day for themselves and their families. And yet, our right to abortion is being crushed right now. The consequences of banning abortion have been swift and devastating for communities nationwide. We need to protect everyone's fundamental right to control their own bodies, access the full range of care, and make personal decisions, including whether to have an abortion. |
[Control/Keep Power] Politicians trying to ban abortion want to control us. A faction of MAGA Republicans works tirelessly to strip people of their right to abortion yet vote against things like sex education, birth control, affordable child care, paid family and medical leave, and other measures that help families thrive. They are going state-by-state to ban abortion and send doctors and women to jail. We shouldn't let a few people who want to keep their power decide what freedom and rights we have. |
[Taken Away/Unique/D-I-R] Across the country, an individual’s right to make personal decisions is being taken away. Sixteen states already have passed government mandates and have little to no access to abortion. These one-size-fits-all government mandates do not work. Every woman faces her own unique circumstances. I will work together with Democrats, Independents, and Republicans to protect access to abortion and the freedom to make the most personal decisions about our own bodies. |
[Control/Extreme Agenda] Politicians trying to ban abortion want to control us. A faction of MAGA Republicans works tirelessly to strip people of their right to abortion yet vote against things like sex education, birth control, affordable child care, paid family and medical leave, and other measures that help families thrive. They are going state-by-state to ban abortion and send doctors and women to jail. We shouldn't let a few people with an extreme agenda decide what freedom and rights we have. |
[Economic Impact] Families today are struggling to make ends meet. True economic security for women and families is connected to access to essential services, including birth control and abortion. Studies show that a woman who seeks an abortion but is denied is more likely to fall into poverty than one who is able to get an abortion. Access to birth control and abortion gives women the freedom to make the best decisions for themselves and their families and feel economically secure. |
Sorted by % Very Convincing
*Split sampled
29
Democratic surge voters under 40 find Control/Extreme Agenda to be the most convincing message, while New Democratic midterm voters under 40 find Miscarriage and Power to be the most convincing. These are key messages for turnout.
77% Strongly Favor |
66% Strongly Favor |
54% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
35% Strongly Favor |
24% Strongly Favor |
% Very Convincing | All | New Democratic Midterm | Democratic Surge |
Power* | 47 | 78 | 67 |
Miscarriage* | 47 | 79 | 68 |
Take Away/Freedom* | 45 | 72 | 67 |
Crushed* | 44 | 66 | 63 |
Control/Keep Power* | 43 | 69 | 68 |
Taken Away/Unique/D-I-R* | 39 | 65 | 67 |
Control/Extreme Agenda* | 39 | 60 | 71 |
Economic Impact* | 36 | 58 | 50 |
*Split sampled
Here are some things that a Democratic candidate might say about why he/she favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. For each, please indicate whether you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all.
30
Women under 50 find the Miscarriage message to be six points more intensely convincing than women 50 and over. The Power and Miscarriage messages work the best for women under 50.
77% Strongly Favor |
66% Strongly Favor |
54% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
35% Strongly Favor |
24% Strongly Favor |
% Very Convincing | All | Women under 50 | Women 50+ |
Power* | 47 | 52 | 57 |
Miscarriage* | 47 | 55 | 49 |
Take Away/Freedom* | 45 | 48 | 52 |
Crushed* | 44 | 45 | 48 |
Control/Keep Power* | 43 | 48 | 51 |
Taken Away/Unique/D-I-R* | 39 | 45 | 41 |
Control/Extreme Agenda* | 39 | 41 | 42 |
Economic Impact* | 36 | 41 | 41 |
*Split sampled
Here are some things that a Democratic candidate might say about why he/she favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. For each, please indicate whether you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all.
31
Similar messages work for persuasion and mobilization. A majority of Black likely voters overall and Black women find all the messages very convincing, but the one Black likely voters and Black women find the most convincing is Miscarriage. Following Miscarriage, Black women find Control/Keep Power the most convincing. Latinx and white women likely voters find Power the most convincing.
77% Strongly Favor |
66% Strongly Favor |
54% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
35% Strongly Favor |
24% Strongly Favor |
*Split sampled
Here are some things that a Democratic candidate might say about why he/she favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. For each, please indicate whether you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all.
% Very Convincing | All | White women | Black | Latinx | Black women |
Power* | 47 | 53 | 57 | 59 | 65 |
Miscarriage* | 47 | 47 | 64 | 55 | 68 |
Take Away/Freedom* | 45 | 46 | 63 | 56 | 62 |
Crushed* | 44 | 44 | 62 | 40 | 64 |
Control/Keep Power* | 43 | 46 | 60 | 55 | 67 |
Taken Away/Unique/D-I-R* | 39 | 42 | 62 | 30 | 60 |
Control/Extreme Agenda* | 39 | 39 | 57 | 36 | 60 |
Economic Impact* | 36 | 40 | 56 | 34 | 56 |
32
Chinese-American likely voters find Take Away/Freedom to be the most convincing message and eight points more intensely convincing than South Asian-American likely voters find the message. Two-thirds of South Asian-American likely voters find the message Crushed to be very convincing.
77% Strongly Favor |
66% Strongly Favor |
54% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
44% Strongly Favor |
35% Strongly Favor |
24% Strongly Favor |
% Very Convincing | All | Chinese^ | South Asian^ |
Power* | 47 | 53 | 53 |
Miscarriage* | 47 | 52 | 56 |
Take Away/Freedom* | 45 | 55 | 47 |
Crushed* | 44 | 45 | 67 |
Control/Keep Power* | 43 | 49 | 51 |
Taken Away/Unique/D-I-R* | 39 | 41 | 57 |
Control/Extreme Agenda* | 39 | 45 | 59 |
Economic Impact* | 36 | 45 | 40 |
*Split sampled
^Note small n size
Here are some things that a Democratic candidate might say about why he/she favors leaving the decision of abortion up to a woman and her doctor and opposes efforts to ban abortion. For each, please indicate whether you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all.
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Celinda Lake
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