Winning Wars��How can the US win battles yet lose wars?
Matt Caffrey
Air Command and Staff College
Air University
Bio
At The Time of Saigon's Fall
American Colonel: “You know you never defeated us in a battle.”
North Vietnamese Colonel: “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”
More Recently...
Few would deny we won an overwhelming military victory
In fact...
When was the last time a militarty victory was so lopsided?
And yet...
Things have not worked out...
My Thesis
We focus our planning and our wargames on winning battles when the focus of both should be winning a better state of peace
My Plan
The Caffrey Cycle
History
Theory
Doctrine
Strategy
War
In the Beginning
Egypt
Rome
China
India
Personalities
The Origins of Modern Wargaming
World Wide Wargaming
Austro-Hungarian
England
Italy
France
Russia
secondary diffusion
1820 / 1875 / 1905
1874 / 1889
1873
1872 / 1883
1866
Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.
Coming to America
Egypt
Moral
Factors
Egypt
Free
War-
gaming
Innovation & Decline in Germany
Egypt
Moral
Factors
Egypt
Free
War-
gaming
Egypt
Face
Time
Egypt
Command
Influence
Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming
Wargaming the Great War
● [1905] The wargames that shaped the world
● [1910s] Moltke the Younger and the return� of rigor
● [1914] The wargame that didn´t change history
● The Peace offensive - the limits of� „force on force“ wargaming
Inter War Wargaming
Navy PME:
- Teach how to learn
- Accelerate MTR
Army: Learn nothing
Air Corps: A false dawn
World War II
● Manstein makes his case
● Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
● Victory at Normandy, twice
● Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
● Both battles of Midway
● Why did Japan keep on fighting
● Navy success - but ...
Eclipse
● Manstein makes his case
● Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
● Victory at Normandy, twice
● Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
● Both battles of Midway
● Why did Japan keep on fighting
● Navy success - but ...
Did „The Bomb“ make
wargames obsolete?
Decline in the
study of war
at the war colleges
Rise of
deterrence &
the efficient DoD
Korea seen as
an aberration
Why was Wargaming Reborn?
The obsolence of war had
been greatly
exaggerated
How was Wargaming Reborn?
Wargaming - The Vietnam War
● Wargame predicted
stalemate -- NOT
continued to conflict resolution
● Wargame predicted victory
- Soviet method of wargaming
- Partial explanation of
lack of radio use,
style of
fighting
How was Wargaming Reborn?
Wargaming - The II.Gulf War
- Soviet method for ground forces
- a reason for the halt
- US software for air
forces - a reason
they did not
fight
How was Wargaming Reborn?
DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
Relatively less expensive
No environ-mental impact
Secure from “overhead” observation
Exploits more computing power for less money
Credibility with Congress
Credibility with Congress
DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
- RAND’s Base of Sand Paper
- HQ USAF concerns
- “Competition” from commercial wargames
The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
- [1950s & 1960s] Charles Roberts &� Eric Dott
- [1970s] James Dunnigan &� the S&T Staff +
- [1980s] Chris Crawford, Gary Grigsby
- [1990s] 25 Billion dollar global industry
Where Are We Now?
Analysis
Training
PME
Prof Dev
Recreation
[Bottom Up]
Operational
Reasearch
Models
History Based
Wargames
[Top Down]
Why Commercial Wargaming
AF in house: first days of war
Commercial: from peace to peace
AF in house:
- 2 Billion a year industry
- dozens of models
Commercial:
- 25 Billion a year global industry
- over 1400 computer games
- over 2800 print games
AF in house:
- $20,000,000 (range:- $1M to $200 M)
- Days to learn and to execute
Commercial:
- $20 (range: $9 to $79, average $49)
- Hours to learn and to execute
FUSION. The Future of Wargaming
- Old world
- military: mainframe computers� - civilians: the kitchen table
- New world
- military: personal computers� - civilians: personal computers
Where We Need to Go
Analysis
Training
PME
Prof Dev
Recreation
[Bottom Up]
Operational Reasearch Models
History Based Wargames
[Top Down]
Facilitating the Integration
Lessons Learned
... and sometimes they get it right
Causes for False Predictions
How to Achieve a Comprehensive Wargame
3rd Generation - system on system
2nd Generation - force on force
1st Generation - mind on mind
Evolve the State of the Art
STRATEGY
ATTRITION
EFFECTS
The 3rd Generation Wargame
Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Human
Factors
Treatment
of Time
System
Effects
The 3rd Generation Wargame
Treatment
of Time
Harmony
between
real and
modeled
time
Turn Cycle
Design Principle
Simulation Duration
Event Duration
Decision Cycle
No time for strategic effects to ripple through
Subordinate Initiative Ignored
- Link´s Trip Report
Decisive Points Missed
- “Dewey Wins!”
- Barbarossa/Vietnam
Consequences When Not Implemented
Col Boyd’s
vision of
how
decisions
work
The Decision Loop
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Duration Determined by Level of Command
Tactical
Operational
Strategic
NCA
Hours to
Days
Seconds
to Hours
Weeks to
Months
Months to
Years
Weeks to
Months
Minutes
to Days
War
Campaign
Battle
Level of War
Type of Event
Decision Cycle
Event Duration
Nested Decision Loops
Hours to
Days
Seconds
to Hours
Weeks to
Months
Nested Decision Loops - Implementation in 3G
AI /
Human Toggle
AI /
Human Toggle
AI Control
All events are tactical.
Matt Caffrey
All politics are local.
Tip O´Neal
Why Ripple Effect?
Tactical Event
1 KIA due to mine
1 KIA - Operational impact
none
1 KIA - none - Strategic impact
Loss of support for war
Death in Vietnam
Tactical Event
16 B-25 lost
Tactical Events Cascading to Strategic Effects
16 B-25 lost - Operational impact
Japanese divert forces
16 B-25 lost - Japanese divert forces - Strategic impact
Huge moral boost
Dolittle´s Raid
The 3rd Generation Wargame
Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Human
Factors
Treatment
of Time
System
Effects
The 3rd Generation Wargame
System
Effects
Harmony
between
real and
modeled
systems
Real combatants function
as systems made up of
internal systems
Design Principle
Models must depict
all combatants as
systems of systems
Unanticipated consequences not detected
Friendly vulnerabilities not identified
Indirect effects not depicted
- Energy crisis of 70’s never happened
- Germany Wins First World War
Consequences When Not Implemented
Warden´s Five Rings
Infrastructure
Leadership
Forces
Population
Essentials
The Enemy as a System
Infrastructure
Leadership
Forces
Population
Essentials
Leadership
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Forces
Connectivity
Connectivity
Enemy
Coalition
C4I [Info/Morale]
Adversaries as Systems
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
C4I [Info/Morale]
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
C4I [Info/Morale]
Each Entity as a System
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
C4I [Info/Morale]
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
Oil Refinery
Management
Cracking Towers
Pipelines
Crude Oil / Power
Guards
C4I [Info/Morale]
Each Entity as a System
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
C4I [Info/Morale]
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
Management
Cracking Towers
Pipelines
Crude Oil / Power
Guards
Fighter Wing
Wing Ops Center
Maintainers
Fighters
POL, Munitions, ...
Security Forces
C4I [Info/Morale]
Each System with Inputs, Capital Assets & Outputs
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
C4I [Info/Morale]
Transformation
Transportation
Resources
Military
Management
Cracking Towers
Pipelines
Crude Oil / Power
Guards
Wing Ops Center
Maintainers
Fighters
POL, Munitions, ...
Security Forces
POL, Parts,
Ammunition
Crude Oil / Power
Crude Oil / Power
POL
Cracking Towers
Cracking Towers
Crude Oil
Electricity
Cracking Towers
Inputs
POL, Munitions, ...
POL, Munitions, ...
Fighters
Fighters
Runway,
F-15´s
Combat Power
Capital
Outputs
POL
POL, Parts,
Ammunition
A direct link if both
entities on same side
Inputs
Capital
Outputs
System Effects Implementation in 3G
Capital
Inputs
Outputs
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
System Effects Implementation in 3G
Inputs
Outputs
AI Node
Defenses
System Effects Implementation in 3G
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
System Effects Implementation in 3G
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
The 3rd Generation Wargame
Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Human
Factors
Treatment
of Time
System
Effects
The 3rd Generation Wargame
Human
Factors
Harmony
between
real and
modeled
human
impacts
Real Human capability
(training, experience)
should influence effectiveness
Design Principle
Human decision criteria
(doctrine, culture)
should be reflected in AI
Decisions inappropriate
- US Wins Vietnam War
- Zero Iraqi Soldiers Surrender
Unit Performance inappropriate
- The Marianas Tie
- The Red Baron Study
Consequences When Not Implemented
Human Factors
Tactical
Operational
Strategic
Human factors influence each
level of war
decisions of war or peace are political decisions
IO/IW, deception has been decisive
crew fatigue/training/morale all play key roles
Modeling What is Known
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Modeling How They Think
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Building the AI Node & Decision Rules
Doctrine,
Effectiveness
Cultural Norms,
Acceptability
Logistics,
Feasibility
Modeling Who They Are
Inputs on Hand
Capital Goods
Outputs on Hand
AI Node
Defenses
Training Level
All men may be created equal, but they don´t stay that way
Cohesion
Health, Fatigue
AI nodes to implement realistic decision criteria on break points etc.
Nodes (AI or human controlled) will only know information that reaches it - true or false
Human Factors Implementation in 3G
Political consequences of actions will be explicitly modeled
Characteristics of personnel modeled
The 3G retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Putting It All Together
Treatment
of Time
Human
Factors
System
Effects
The 3G retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Treatment
of Time
Human
Factors
System
Effects
All actions are initially tactical
“All” actions have physical, informational
and attitudinal impacts
In cases when these impacts “ripple” through
the system strategic effects may occur
Representative Durations
Wars
Campaigns
Battles
120
100
80
60
40
20
Days
Weeks
Months
Years
The 3G retains the two sidedness of the 1st,
the attrition of the 2nd and adds
Treatment
of Time
Human
Factors
System
Effects
All actions are initially tactical
“All” actions have physical, informational
and attitudinal impacts
In cases when these impacts “ripple” through
the system strategic effects may occur
Game space populated by entities that include:
- An AI rule set with starting attitude
- “Capital” goods
- Expendables
Building the Simulation
All entities
- Consume expendables, receive information
- Produce outputs, transmit information
Turn cycle for each entity appropriate to command level
Type of Conflict Neutral
-
war, insurgency
Theory Neutral
-
any theory can be tried
A 3rd Generation Wargame is...
Should even provide visibility into natural disasters
Is Instrument of Power Neutral
-
any IP
In Summary
What we called
wargames in the past
were really battle games
Today we are refining
some pretty reasonable
campaign games
The 3d Generation Wargame will be the first true
War Game, its features will enhance campaign
games significantly and battle games somewhat
Conclusion