Manual Briefing: Theories of Change for Early Actions

Presented by:

Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

Global Early Action & Research Advisor

Presented by:

When in the process of selecting early actions should I develop theories of change (ToCs)?

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Once you have narrowed your actions

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Develop a ToC for each action under serious consideration

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You may still discard an action after this step

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Presentation Overview

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What is a ToC and what is it useful for?

What are the components of a ToC

How can you develop a ToC

Fatal assumptions

Activity / walk through (?)

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Why a theory of change?

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Initial situation

Desired future situation

We make (intuitive) assumptions ALL THE TIME!

What should change, for whom, and why?

Why a theory of change?

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Transparency & Clarity

• Be clear about where you want to go & how you will get there

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Monitoring & Learning

• Identify which elements to monitor
• Which elements to change

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Image credit: theoryofchange.org

How to develop a ToC

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Insert a grayscale map of the pilot country and pinpoint the exact location as seen here.

Threats:

Step 1: define the problem and the goal

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• Define the objective in relation to a specific problem
• The end goal/objective is often the opposite of the problem you are trying to solve; the desired impact (of your program)

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• Key questions
• What is the problem?
• What is the impact we want to reduce with early action?
• How can we reduce this impact?

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Helpful tips:
• Work backward from desired outcome
• Test your logic using ”if…then” statements

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Elements of the process to map
• Define your goal & work backward
• Example: reduce damage to crops from ashfall

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Step 2: map the process of change

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Define the outcome: the change in behavior that will lead to your anticipated results

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• Outcomes ≠ final objective or desired impact
• Example:
• Action = distribution of tarps to protect crops
• The outcomes is that people use tarps to protect their crops (the behavioral change)

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• If access to tarps is sufficient to reduce damage to crops, this behavior change will result in the final objective (impact): fewer crops lost

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Define early actions
• Who will do what, when, where, how?
• What kind of guidance will accompany the early actions? (e.g how to use the kits etc).

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Step 2: map the process of change

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Map the trigger/communication process

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Step 2: map the process of change

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Step 2: map the process of change

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• Define pre-trigger activities (if applicable)

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• Examples:
• Identifying beneficiaries (verifying lists)
• Verifying pre-positioned stocks
• Loading trucks
• Informing personnel

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Step 2: map the process of change

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Step 2: map the process of change

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Define preparatory actions

• Administrative examples:
• Identify partners
• Identify potential beneficiaries/mapping

Preparatory examples:

• Workshops
• Training
• Produce educational materials
• Acquire supplies
• Pre-position supplies

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Step 3: make assumptions explicit

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Definition of Assumption:

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An external factor (beyond the control of the project) that is critical for project success.

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It must hold true for the intervention to succeed

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Step 3: make assumptions explicit

Assumption!

Assumption!

Assumption!

Assumption!

Step 3: make assumptions explicit

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Example: Assumptions behind distribution of veterinary kits and tarps to protect animals from the cold

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Name an assumption

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Step 3: make assumptions explicit

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• Trucks will be available; roads will be passable (not too icy)
• People will use the tarps for the animals rather than their homes
• People will be willing to vaccinate their animals
• People will know how to use the kits

Step 3: make assumptions explicit

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If you can control/influence the assumption, add it to your ToC

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Step 3: make assumptions explicit

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Identify and address any fatal assumptions

• A fatal assumption is one that has a high probability of not being realized during implementation
• A project containing a fatal assumption is likely to fail—hence the name

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If you find a fatal assumption

• If possible, redesign the project
• If redesign not possible, find another early actions

Identifying a fatal assumption

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Step 4: validate your ToCs

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Validate ToCs and any assumptions with key stakeholders/experts

• Workshops
• Interviews
• Focus groups
• Meetings
• Simulations
• Activations

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Step 5: revise as often as needed

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Questions?�Feedback?�Discussion

Arielle Tozier de la Poterie

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Arielle.tozierdelapoterie@germanredcross.de

Bank account

for your donations:

Activity: draft a ToC for one of your early actions

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Choose an early action from your scenario development

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• Define the problem, and the objective
• Map the process of change (work backward if it is useful!)

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If you have time:

• Make assumptions explicit
• Identify any fatal flaws—can you redesign or fix them?
• In the future: validate your theory and assumptions with key stakeholders & adjust as necessary

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