S3 - Solar Eruptions�Moderator: Larisza Krista�Advisers: Jordan Guerra and Fadil Inceoglu�(University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA NCEI and SWPC)

Four active teams:

​

S3-04: Radio Observations of the Sun and Heliosphere (Team lead: Pietro Zucca)

​

S3-05: Solar Flare precursors (Team lead: Larisza Krista)

​

S3-06: Understanding the Onset of CMEs/Eruptive Flares (Team lead: Larisza Krista) – Resurrected!

​

S3-07: Solar Flare Database (Team lead: Jordan Guerra) – New!

​

Come and join the Teams! Register on the ISWAT website,

for questions email team leads!

​

​

​

S3-04: Radio Observations of the Sun and Heliosphere (Team lead: Pietro Zucca)

Team summary:

• Solar radio imaging using LOFAR, investigating the position and the fine structures of solar radio bursts. This radio information is used in the context of multiwavelength observation from ground- and space-based observatories.
• Goal: operating a dedicated LOFAR station for space weather purposes (IDOLS - Incremental development of LOFAR Space-weather). Obtaining calibrated real-time solar radio bursts and ionospheric scintillation. Future work will involve adding more stations to IDOLS including coordinated observations with International LOFAR stations. Developing tools to forecast SEP using radio information.

​

Session on Thursday AM1 in room Jamaica (Chair: Peijin Zhang)

“Radio Observations of the Sun and Heliosphere”

The session will highlight the role of solar radio observations in space weather research, covering recent advancements in space- and ground-based observations. We will discuss the potential of FASR, AI-driven data analysis, and integrating radio observations into space weather models. Key topics include identifying observable physical parameters for validation and model input. Additionally, we will review existing solar radio instruments, introduce new capabilities, and explore strategies to enhance their role in space weather forecasting.

Focus topics:

• Preparing Solar Radio Data for Modeling
• FASR’s Role in Space Weather
• Harnessing AI for Solar Radio and Space Weather

​

S3-05: Solar Flare Precursors (Team lead: Larisza Krista)

Team summary:

• Solar flares have been linked to significant space weather hazards at Earth, including radio blackouts and energetic particle events that can start just minutes after the flare onset. Hence, it is of great importance to identify and predict flare events as early as possible. We investigate flare precursors that have physical connections to the initiation of solar flares. We focus on solar coronal signatures that appear within a few hours in the vicinity of the flare site.
• Goal: Understand the physical relationship between precursors/postcursors and flares. Investigating forecast timelines, flare magnitude predictions and performance metrics. Investigate false positives and negatives (events unrelated to flares and events without signatures). Comparison of current non-ML and ML methods, training databases and performance statistics.

​

Joint session with S3-06 on Monday…. more on the next slide!

S3-06: Understanding the Onset of CMEs/Eruptive Flares (Team lead: Larisza Krista)

Team summary:

• CMEs are some of the most important drivers of adverse space weather. And although CMEs have been studied observationally and theoretically for decades, there is still no agreement on the mechanism for their onset nor on the conditions required for their occurrence. The exact nature of the filament field and the mechanism for the force balance disruption are still not understood and are topics of intense debate throughout the international solar physics community.��Goal: The over-arching goal of this ISWAT Team is to bring together experts to advance our understanding of both the pre-eruption magnetic field and of the onset mechanism. 

​

S3-05/06 Session on Monday PM1, in room Trinidad. (Chair: Larisza Krista)

“Flares, dimmings and CMEs: how can we best predict and understand solar eruptive phenomena?”

We invite experts from diverse fields to present and discuss their latest advancements in space weather forecasting: improving the accuracy and lead times of CME arrival predictions, the latest models for forecasting the geomagnetic response to solar activity and leveraging machine learning and artificial intelligence for real-time event detection and forecasting. The session will provide a platform to share findings, discuss challenges, and explore collaborative opportunities to enhance our understanding and preparedness for extreme space weather events.

Focus topics:

• Flare/CME initiation.
• Detection tools.
• Performance metrics.

​

Looking for NEW TEAM LEAD!

S3-07: Solar Flare Database (Team lead: Jordan Guerra)

Team summary:

• Forecasting of several space weather phenomena rely on statistics of flare’s characteristics. In practice, dealing with a “flare list” has proven on multiple occasions to be a major complication. Existing compilations of flare information often appear incomplete, inconsistent, or straight-up incompatible with certain applications, leading to the development of more lists and making it almost impossible to reproduce and compare results.
• Goal: To create a community-driven, comprehensive, reproducible flare events and characteristic database that can be used by many space weather forecasting domains, and that facilitates the validation and comparison of different forecasting applications.

​

Session on Monday, PM2, in room Trinidad (Chair: Jordan Guerra)

“Solar flare database”

The purpose of this session is to continue the efforts started during the mini-ISWAT at ESWW24.

Focus topics:

• Determine the feasibility of this database.
• Form an initial core team.
• Identify funding sources and interested partners.