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International �Relations, Politics & Institutions

Ryan Lafferty

You Know the Drill

Disclaimer #1

I am NOT an expert on ANY of this—so take everything I say with a grain of NaCl!

Disclaimer #2

Obviously, lots of this is very complicated—there are instances where I’ll skip details!

Overview—Part 1

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02

03

04

Ethiopia, South Africa, South Sudan, Libya, AfCFTA

Iran, Israel**, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen

BRI, Hong Kong, Tibet, Taiwan, CCP, Uighurs, Russia ties

Korean Peninsula, Myanmar, SCS, Japan, AUKUS, India-China

Middle East

Africa

China

Asia

Notes!

Overview—Part 2

05

06

07

08

War on Drugs, Brazilian politics, FARC insurgency

NOTES: Yugoslavia, EU, Brexit, euroscepticism, etc.

Sanctions, invasions, diplomacy

UN, EU, AU, ASEAN, ICC/ICTY

Ukraine

Latin America

IR in Debate

Institutions

Notes!

Middle East

01

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Ryan’s political career is going down the drain in three… two… one…

Iran

everyone say, “hi iran!”

this here is iran

this is the US

this was the USSR

this is the US

this was the USSR

1953

1979

edition 1!

well known pacifists →

HEZBOLLAH

edition 2!

edition 3!

P5+1

it’s like third wheeling except it’s actually like sixth wheeling

P5+1

it’s like third wheeling except it’s actually like sixth wheeling

China

France

Russia

United States

Britain

Germany

P5+1

it’s like third wheeling except it’s actually like sixth wheeling

China

France

Russia

United States

Britain

Germany

woopee diversity!!

Iran Nukes Bad

Iran Nukes Bad

Iran Nuclear Deal

Iran Nuclear Deal

Reduce Iranian Nuclearization

Reduce Iranian Nuclearization

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

IRAN’S LIST OF

Less sanctions 😊😊

can we fund the terrorists more now???

Still get ballistic weapons 😊😊

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Cozy up with the West 😊😊

Harder to make nukes 🥴🥴

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RIP to the elite-controlled industries in Iran 😵😵😵😵

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Cozy up with the West 😒😒

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ISRAEL’S LIST OF

Iran gets nuke-blocked

GRR GRR GRR IRAN NOW HAS MORE $$$ TO SPEND ON MORE MILITANT GROUPS GRR GRR GRR

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OH WAIT DID I MENTION THAT IRAN IS NOW GOING TO GET SANCTIONS RELIEF

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HANG ON FOLKS, NEWS FLASH, THE JCPOA WILL ALLOW GREATER CAPITAL INFLOWS INTO IRAN

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DID I EVER TELL YOU ABOUT HOW THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IS GOING TO INCREASE IRAN’S FUNDING

Syria

Syrian Civil War—Part 1

• A variety of factors—like the broader Arab Spring movement, the outbreak of famine, increasing opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s rule—led to widespread protests in 2011, which were violently put down
• Subsequently, this sparked one of the longest and bloodiest civil wars of the 21^st century. It’s complex, but here’s the **big picture overview** of who’s involved
• 1) Syrian rebel forces: these are often fragmented and scattered, but the main rebel force is the Free Syrian Army. Many of these are ideologically aligned with the Sunni branch of Islam, although the conflict is fundamentally not over religion
• 2) Kurdish militias: particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan, militias protecting Kurdish territory have played a large role in the combat, especially because the US has backed Kurdish military campaigns against ISIS
• 3) Salafi jihadist insurgency/terrorist groups: the most well-known terrorist cell in Syria/Iraq is ISIS, but other groups, like the al-Nusra Front, also are involved in the conflict!
• 4) Foreign forces have become highly involved in the conflict:
• The US—and many other Western allies—have become involved, officially to combat ISIS, but also to fund/train rebel forces and support the Kurds
• Russia—and its regional proxy, Iran—have intervened to support the Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad
• Turkey is vehemently opposed to the Kurds, and in October 2019, partially invaded in order to eliminate Kurdish forces from the region

Syrian Civil War—Part 2

• The conflict has been extremely bloody and devastating. Chemical weapons attacks—outlawed under international law—have been used against civilians. Sieges against major areas, like Aleppo, have incurred massive casualty counts. Since every side in the conflict is so fragmented and splintered, there’s substantial infighting between groups, even when those groups have similar ideological motivations
• The Civil War has killed ~600,000 people, and displaced some 14 million people; this has caused an enormous exodus of migrants to flee the country, contributing to the 2015 European migrant crisis. Many refugees have resettled in border countries like Lebanon (where ~25% of the population is composed of Syrian migrants)
• Violence peaked in 2015/2016, but the conflict is still very much ongoing. As of now, the Syrian government controls a comfortable majority of territory—somewhere in the ballpark of 65% of all land within the country—but fighting continues. Negotiation efforts have been largely unsuccessful

Afghanistan

MUJAHIDEEN

SIDE NOTE

this dude joined the mujahideen… cuz he was rich and he had Saudi money

CIA???? GURL????

BACK TO THE MUJAHIDEEN

anyone know who this dude is?

bruh, the fuck we doing in Afghanistan, we’re like low key gonna collapse

hold on, i actually hate you guys, fuck off

TALIBAN

• The Taliban was formed from the remnants of the Afghani mujahideen. The founding members of the Taliban were students who’d grown up/been trained in Islamic schools in Pakistan; they were Islamic fundamentalists, who favored a very strict and austere interpretation of Islamic law—particularly when it came to the rights of women!

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• By 1996, they had taken over the country; their rule was brutal, and widely condemned throughout the world. Very few countries even agreed to recognize them as the legitimate Afghani state

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• However, the Taliban received financial support/assistance from both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Additionally, the Taliban provided cover for Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, which—similar to the Taliban—had emerged as an offshoot of the Afghani mujahideen

interesting fact—this is the only time in NATO history that Article 5 (collective self defense) was invoked!

although the coalition forces established a provisional government, the Taliban waged a low-level insurgency for years

simultaneously, the US attempted to train, fund, arm, and prepare the Afghani state and military to become self-sustaining

Why Did Afghanistan Fall?

• Intelligence failures. The inability of the US military to properly assess the geopolitical and military situation of Afghanistan contributed to its rapid downfall
• Inability and unwillingness to fight. Despite spending more than $89 billion on training and arming and preparing the Afghani military to stand its own ground, as the Taliban swept through rural villages and strategically infiltrated cities, many areas simply surrendered or brokered deals with the Taliban, evidencing an unwillingness to fight back. This is chiefly because of a lack of faith that the central government in Kabul would back their defensive efforts. Moreover, the US withdraw generated a counterproductive signalling effect: by publicly announcing its withdrawal and leaving the country entirely, the US demoralized Afghani military and police forces
• Dependency on US and NATO-coalition backing. As Western military forces abandoned the Afghani government, they found themselves psychologically and materialy incapable of resisting the Taliban’s takeover, even in spite of their numerical advantage against the Taliban
• Ineffective and corrupt mismanagement. The Afghani government has long been plagued by internal networks of corruption, and that trend has spilled over into the ranks of the military. Without US backing, Afghanistan had little capacity to retaliate against the Taliban. For instance, many soldiers of the Afghani military are chronically underpaid and under resourced, which is why many Afghani fighters opted to sell their weapons to the Taliban rather than engaged in armed defense and resistance
• Poor Western strategy. The premise of US and NATO reconstruction efforts was built around the construction of a strong central government in Kabul, something alien to the majority of the Afghani people. Some analysts claim the US-backed government in Kabul was destined for failure – the Western conception of government forced upon Afghanistan was doomed from its inception. This is particularly important given the internally diverse nature of Afghanistan
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Saudi Arabia

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vs

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Iran

Why the Conflict?

• Although the war is justified through oft-religious rhetoric (Saudi Arabia favors Wahhabism, a fundamentalist and strict conception of Sunni Islam, while Iran is majority-Shia), the conflict is not itself a religious conflict—rather, the desire for geopolitical power and regional hegemony is dominant!

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• Additionally, Saudi Arabia is propped up by the US, while Iran is propped up most directly by Russia, but also to a lesser extent by China
• As a consequence, many people have labeled the Saudi Arabia vs Iran “Cold War” a de facto proxy conflict between the US and China, as the two nations compete for global influence!

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• The conflict is waged in neighboring countries—for instance, in Lebanon and Yemen—but the proxy conflict also looks like the US strike against a top Iranian general in 2020 or the Iran-backed drone attacks on Saudi Aramco oil pipelines within Saudi Arabia

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• This has also led the US to intensify sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

_{side note(s) on SAUDI ARABIA}

QUICK!!

why does he look like he’s smiling for 4th grade class pictures??

MbS: THREE BIG THINGS

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1

WHEN YOU THINK OF SAUDI ARABIA, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF?

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1

WHEN YOU THINK OF SAUDI ARABIA, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF?

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1

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2

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3

what international organization has the best-defined chest muscles?

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3

what international organization has the best-defined chest muscles?

OPEC?

• OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a collection of 13 oil-producing nations. OPEC functions as a global oil cartel: it coordinates and sets production/extraction levels, and the theory behind this is that if each nation keeps production at similar levels, then prices can be artificially raised by keeping supply artificially low!

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• In theory, OPEC gives equal voting power to all countries—but Saudi Arabia, as the organization’s largest petroleum exporter, has disproportionate influence within the organization!

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• Most OPEC nations have state-run oil companies; globally, around 65% of oil reserves are under the management of state-owned enterprises operating in the petroleum sector

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• OPEC controls around 44% of global oil production, but has untapped reserves accounting for up to 82% of the world’s known oil reserves

BONUS ROUND

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4

$620 billion!!

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4

$620 billion!!

Israel

fuck u

fuck u

fuck u

fuck u

fuck u

fuck u

heyyo jews let’s dip on eur-up, meet me at the holy spot in 20, gtg toodles!

Theodor “I Put the Z in Zionist” Herzl

**Narrator Voice**

It was then that the Jews realized they had nowhere to go

well known pacifists!

BLACK HAND

me want to win war <3 <3

me want to win war <3 <3

and me like the land… :) :)

SO… Britain decides to ~strategize~ and be a wee bit… clever

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1915

we’ll give you a full, unified Arab state… ifffffffff you overthrow those nasty Ottomans

I accept these humble terms. I shall not let you down.

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1916

heyyyy, if we win the war, do u wanna like slice up the middle east and split it in half for us to claim? 🥺🥺🥺

monsieur, zat vood mayk mai day oh-so eh-mag-a-nif-ee-set-o!

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1917

hiiiiii jews, we just loooove you and we would looooove to give you a full jewish state in palestine after the war!

I accept these humble terms. I shall not let you down.

so…

in effect…

britain had promised…

palestine to…

1—THE ARABS

2—THE FRENCH

really, they’d promised it to themselves… with the Frenchies

3—THE JEWS

in high-level political science, this is officially known as an “oopsie” or a “big rip”

~87% Muslim

~10% Christian�~3% Jewish

(you could say pre-British Palestine was Jewish)

~87% Muslim

~10% Christian�~3% Jewish

(you could say pre-British Palestine was Jewish)

~87% Muslim

~10% Christian�~3% Jewish

(you could say pre-British Palestine was Jewish)

Huge influx of Jews into Palestine

Palestinian Arabs did NOT like this

Huge influx of Jews into Palestine

Palestinian Arabs did NOT like this

They had some riots against the British

Huge influx of Jews into Palestine

Palestinian Arabs did NOT like this

They had some riots against the British

Britain was like “eh you got some points, ig”

Huge influx of Jews into Palestine

Palestinian Arabs did NOT like this

They had some riots against the British

Britain was like “eh you got some points, ig”

WHITE PAPERS: limited Jewish immigration and imposed restrictions on Jewish ownership of land

Huge influx of Jews into Palestine

hmm this palestine thing is getting real tricky and i don’t wanna have to deal with it anymore low key…

heyyyyyyy United Nations, would you wanna be a real G and do me a big ‘ol favor and just… take care of this Palestine situation for me?

uhh…

So the UN came up with a nice ‘ol partition plan… little problem though… um… look at this thing…

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DOES ANYONE THINK THIS IS GONNA GO WELL?

May 14, 1948

i’m independent now!!!

May 14, 1948

aww, happy BURFDAYY!!

happy b-day dude!!

happy birthday bud!!

omg happy birthday to you!!

May 14, 1948

jk we hate u

jk we hate u

jk we hate u

jk we hate u

so, they go to war! (part 1)

get used to it, it’s a #theme

Jews emerge from the war victorious—and most importantly, that means that Israel vastly expands their territorial borders!

Conversely, Palestinian Arabs emerge from the war devastated—hundreds of thousands are forced to flee. This became known as the “Nakba,” or “disaster”

fast forward to 1956

SUEZ CANAL

SUEZ CANAL

bippity boppity this canal is my property

so, they go to war! (part 2)

the US was like “israel/britain/france you fuuuuckerrrrzz”

fast forward to 1967

bippity boppity these straits do NOT look like israeli property

so, they go to war! (part 3)

and then Israel totally wins a HUGE AMOUNT of land*

*the Golan Heights, the West Bank (incl. East Jerusalem), the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula

fast forward to 1973

“hey guys i have a brilliant idea, how about we sneak attack israel…”

during YOM KIPPUR 😈

so, they go to war! (part 4)

but then the Arabs lose again…

but Israel also starts to realize that maybe this “perpetual warfare” schtick won’t work out too well…

so, at the Camp David Accords in 1979, Egypt becomes the first Middle Eastern state to recognize Israel!

this marks a transition in the conflict from Arab-Israeli to Israeli-Palestinian

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

Palestinians have risen up against the Israeli government during the First (1987–1983) and Second (2000–2005) Intifadas

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

The Palestinian National Authority is largely split between two political entities: Hamas and Fatah. Hamas is far more militant and violence-inclined than Fatah—and they fought an internal civil war over their ideological disputes in 2007!

Palestinians have risen up against the Israeli government during the First (1987–1983) and Second (2000–2005) Intifadas

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

The Palestinian National Authority is largely split between two political entities: Hamas and Fatah. Hamas is far more militant and violence-inclined than Fatah—and they fought an internal civil war over their ideological disputes in 2007!

Palestinians have risen up against the Israeli government during the First (1987–1983) and Second (2000–2005) Intifadas

Although peace efforts have been attempted—most significantly through the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, negotiated under Bill Clinton—violence is still quite common

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

The Palestinian National Authority is largely split between two political entities: Hamas and Fatah. Hamas is far more militant and violence-inclined than Fatah—and they fought an internal civil war over their ideological disputes in 2007!

Palestinians have risen up against the Israeli government during the First (1987–1983) and Second (2000–2005) Intifadas

Although peace efforts have been attempted—most significantly through the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, negotiated under Bill Clinton—violence is still quite common

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

Issues like the Palestinian right of return and the Jewish identity of the Israeli state—as well as the presence of ultra-nationalists on both sides of the conflict—have made peace difficult

aaaaaaaaaaand because I like leaving you at a cliff-hanger, you can read 30 pages of notes about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after this presentation is over!

Israel occupies (“settles”) territory it claims it won during the 1967 war; this is in violation of international law!

Palestinian Arabs living within Israel face both de jure and de facto discrimination

The Palestinian National Authority is largely split between two political entities: Hamas and Fatah. Hamas is far more militant and violence-inclined than Fatah—and they fought an internal civil war over their ideological disputes in 2007!

Palestinians have risen up against the Israeli government during the First (1987–1983) and Second (2000–2005) Intifadas

Although peace efforts have been attempted—most significantly through the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, negotiated under Bill Clinton—violence is still quite common

The two areas within Israel under dominant Palestinian control are the Gaza Strip and the West Bank

Issues like the Palestinian right of return and the Jewish identity of the Israeli state—as well as the presence of ultra-nationalists on both sides of the conflict—have made peace difficult

LONG STORY SHORT,

IT’S KINDA COMPLICATED!

Asia

02

Korea

1950—1953

Korean War!

the territory of the Korean Peninsula is then divided at the 38th parallel (~56% of territory in the North)

COUNTRIES

for the first 8 years of its post-war history, South Korea’s economy stagnated due to its authoritarian governance, widespread corruption, and dependence on US support

for the first 8 years of its post-war history, South Korea’s economy stagnated due to its authoritarian governance, widespread corruption, and dependence on US support

but during the subsequent half of the 20^th century, the “Miracle on the Han River” saw an astonishing rate of industrialization and growth in the country, fueled by an export-driven industrial sector!

for the first 8 years of its post-war history, South Korea’s economy stagnated due to its authoritarian governance, widespread corruption, and dependence on US support

but during the subsequent half of the 20^th century, the “Miracle on the Han River” saw an astonishing rate of industrialization and growth in the country, fueled by an export-driven industrial sector!

so by the turn of the century, while North Korea remained an agrarian, largely pre-industrial economy, South Korea flourished!

mEaNwHiLe iN nOrTh kOrEa…

Since North Korea’s inception in the 1940s, just three men have ruled as the country’s leader—and all of them come from the Kim family, making them, collectively, the Kim dynasty

mEaNwHiLe iN nOrTh kOrEa…

Since North Korea’s inception in the 1940s, just three men have ruled as the country’s leader—and all of them come from the Kim family, making them, collectively, the Kim dynasty

Each has ruled North Korea as a brutal and repressive tyrant. Some had hoped that Kim Jong-un, the current dictator, might act as a “reformer,” and while he has pursued minor economic reforms, he’s largely acted similar to his predecessors

mEaNwHiLe iN nOrTh kOrEa…

Since North Korea’s inception in the 1940s, just three men have ruled as the country’s leader—and all of them come from the Kim family, making them, collectively, the Kim dynasty

Each has ruled North Korea as a brutal and repressive tyrant. Some had hoped that Kim Jong-un, the current dictator, might act as a “reformer,” and while he has pursued minor economic reforms, he’s largely acted similar to his predecessors

North Korea’s government features heavy censorship, extensive propaganda, intensive militarism, and central economic planning. Human rights are consistently abused, and the ideology of songun, or “military-first politics,” dominates the allocation of state resources

mEaNwHiLe iN nOrTh kOrEa…

Since North Korea’s inception in the 1940s, just three men have ruled as the country’s leader—and all of them come from the Kim family, making them, collectively, the Kim dynasty

Each has ruled North Korea as a brutal and repressive tyrant. Some had hoped that Kim Jong-un, the current dictator, might act as a “reformer,” and while he has pursued minor economic reforms, he’s largely acted similar to his predecessors

North Korea’s government features heavy censorship, extensive propaganda, intensive militarism, and central economic planning. Human rights are consistently abused, and the ideology of songun, or “military-first politics,” dominates the allocation of state resources

Although there have been flashpoints of cooperation, North and South Korea remain largely hostile in their relations

And perhaps most importantly, North Korea’s military-first focus has contributed greatly to its nuclear weapons program!

North Korea faced its first wave of intense sanctions in 1988, when the US classified the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorim

North Korea faced its first wave of intense sanctions in 1988, when the US classified the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorim

Then North Korea kinda entered its emo rebel punk phase (jk) and its paranoid leadership began developing plans for a nuclear weapons program

North Korea faced its first wave of intense sanctions in 1988, when the US classified the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorim

Then North Korea kinda entered its emo rebel punk phase (jk) and its paranoid leadership began developing plans for a nuclear weapons program

North Korea strategically views countries like South Korea, Japan, and most significantly the US as being existential threats to its legitimacy and continued power—and the simple rationale invoked by NK leadership is that nuclear weapons create the sort of deterrent needed to ward off rash behaviors from antagonistic states!

North Korea faced its first wave of intense sanctions in 1988, when the US classified the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorim

Then North Korea kinda entered its emo rebel punk phase (jk) and its paranoid leadership began developing plans for a nuclear weapons program

North Korea strategically views countries like South Korea, Japan, and most significantly the US as being existential threats to its legitimacy and continued power—and the simple rationale invoked by NK leadership is that nuclear weapons create the sort of deterrent needed to ward off rash behaviors from antagonistic states!

In response, the international community has responded with sanctions; these have targeted everything from weapons to financial assets! Sanctions have been intended to harm elites within North Korea, but are also credibly estimated to have contributed to widespread famines within the country—even while elites find ways to evade the brunt of sanctions!

North and South Korea: Still a Better Romance Story than Twilight

Kaesong Industrial Plant

Myanmar

1988

And a notable figure in those student-led protests?

Aung

Sun

Suu

Kyi

= ASSK(icker)

And a notable figure in those student-led protests?

Aung

Sun

Suu

Kyi

= ASSK(icker)

Tatmadaw

2010: FIIIINE we’ll become like a HALF democracy

TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE MYANMAR DEMOCRACY

We shall have a democracy. It shall be a great democracy. We will have lots and lots of elections. We will have open elections, in fact. We will have campaigns, and political parties. Lots of parties, so many parties it’s as if we’re a college campus. And we will be oh-so transparent and oh-so free and fair. Lots of free and fair elections going on over here in Myanmar!

Oh and by the way at least 25% of seats in the national legislature are guaranteed to be held by us, the military…

Aung San Suu Kyi’s NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY (NLD) swept into power in the 2015 elections, ushering in a new era of democratization in Myanmar!

SIDE NOTE

me trying to turn off the light switch without getting out of bed

But, despite Myanmar’s democratization under the NLD, beginning in 2016, the government—largely the military, but also independent Buddhist monks—launched a brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Rohingya people in the Rakhine State in Myanmar

In November 2020, elections were held, and the NLD won in a landslide

he (military general) was very unhappy with this…

Other Random Stuff

“The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes”

Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution…

Since the 1960s, India has embraced agricultural protectionism, implementing a variety of measures intended to protect domestic Indian farmers

Since the 1960s, India has embraced agricultural protectionism, implementing a variety of measures intended to protect domestic Indian farmers

In the fall of 2020, India proposed three “Farm Bills,” intended to do away with many of those protective measures in an effort to boost the global competitiveness of India’s agricultural industry. For instance, India proposed eliminating de facto price floors for Indian farmers, which would enable large, corporatized farms to outcompete smaller, less mechanized farming communities

Since the 1960s, India has embraced agricultural protectionism, implementing a variety of measures intended to protect domestic Indian farmers

In the fall of 2020, India proposed three “Farm Bills,” intended to do away with many of those protective measures in an effort to boost the global competitiveness of India’s agricultural industry. For instance, India proposed eliminating de facto price floors for Indian farmers, which would enable large, corporatized farms to outcompete smaller, less mechanized farming communities

These Farm Bills were lambasted by Indian farmers, and led to huge protests; eventually, the Indian government—after the Supreme Court temporarily delayed the implementation of the laws—decided to repeal the measures

TREND: China and the West are increasingly vying for regional influence—even at the expense of heightening tensions!

Good Southeast Asian Parties to Know

BJP (India): Hindu Nationalist party (Muslims are a minority in India), led by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Liberal Democratic Party (Japan): right-wing/conservative party, consistently dominant since 1955. Formerly led by Shinzo Abe. Fragmented across six heterogeneous political factions

Palang Pracharath Party (Thailand): since a 2013 coup d’etat, Thailand has been governed as a highly-flawed democracy, with the military acting as the de facto governing body, despite elections being held since 2019

Chinese Communist Party (CCP): more on this in just a bit…

China

03

China

1

2

3

4

Belt and Road

CCP under Xi

Authoritarianism

Internal Economy

Hi. I’m Xi Jinping, from the Chinese Communist Party, and today, alongside my partner, I will be arguing on side Government in support of today’s resolution.

A few important characteristics of the Chinese Communist Party IN GENERAL…

#1: Hierarchical Structure

Xi Jinping

(since 2012)

Most influential decision-making body within China!

#2: Ideological Divides

#2: Ideological Divides

The Shanghai Gang arose under Jiang Zemin, who operated as Shanghai’s mayor until 1989. During this time, he developed an extensive political network of allies and patrons, so when he was appointed as the CCP’s Party Secretary, many leadership positions within the provincial and central levels of the Chinese government were filled with Jiang’s personal supporters. The Shanghai Gang largely favors the coastal elite (e.g. cities like Shanghai). For instance, under Jiang’s rule, 86% of foreign investment into China was directed towards the east coast, despite the western portions of China representing 71% of all Chinese land. The Shanghai Gang is dominated by the princelings, who are descendents of powerful Chinese revolutionaries. The Shanghai Gang is generally viewed as being the more “elite” and “old guard” faction within the CCP. The Princelings have focused on a return to Maoist style socialism with changes to suit contemporary China

#2: Ideological Divides

The Shanghai Gang arose under Jiang Zemin, who operated as Shanghai’s mayor until 1989. During this time, he developed an extensive political network of allies and patrons, so when he was appointed as the CCP’s Party Secretary, many leadership positions within the provincial and central levels of the Chinese government were filled with Jiang’s personal supporters. The Shanghai Gang largely favors the coastal elite (e.g. cities like Shanghai). For instance, under Jiang’s rule, 86% of foreign investment into China was directed towards the east coast, despite the western portions of China representing 71% of all Chinese land. The Shanghai Gang is dominated by the princelings, who are descendents of powerful Chinese revolutionaries. The Shanghai Gang is generally viewed as being the more “elite” and “old guard” faction within the CCP. The Princelings have focused on a return to Maoist style socialism with changes to suit contemporary China

The Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL), arose under the reign of Party Secretary Hu Jintao. Those who come from the CCYL within the CCP are known as the Tuanpai. Unlike the Shanghai Gang, the CCYL focuses largely on reorienting China’s political and economic focus towards interior regions away from coastal cities. For instance, Shanghai’s construction boom during the 1980s and 1990s was substantially limited when Secretary Jintao of the CCYL came into power in the early 2000s. The Tuanpai are populist, focusing on the lesser-privileged and the Chinese hinterland

#2: Ideological Divides

The Shanghai Gang arose under Jiang Zemin, who operated as Shanghai’s mayor until 1989. During this time, he developed an extensive political network of allies and patrons, so when he was appointed as the CCP’s Party Secretary, many leadership positions within the provincial and central levels of the Chinese government were filled with Jiang’s personal supporters. The Shanghai Gang largely favors the coastal elite (e.g. cities like Shanghai). For instance, under Jiang’s rule, 86% of foreign investment into China was directed towards the east coast, despite the western portions of China representing 71% of all Chinese land. The Shanghai Gang is dominated by the princelings, who are descendents of powerful Chinese revolutionaries. The Shanghai Gang is generally viewed as being the more “elite” and “old guard” faction within the CCP. The Princelings have focused on a return to Maoist style socialism with changes to suit contemporary China

The Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL), arose under the reign of Party Secretary Hu Jintao. Those who come from the CCYL within the CCP are known as the Tuanpai. Unlike the Shanghai Gang, the CCYL focuses largely on reorienting China’s political and economic focus towards interior regions away from coastal cities. For instance, Shanghai’s construction boom during the 1980s and 1990s was substantially limited when Secretary Jintao of the CCYL came into power in the early 2000s. The Tuanpai are populist, focusing on the lesser-privileged and the Chinese hinterland

More recently, the “Xi Gang” has risen to power under Xi Jinping’s tenure as General Secretary within the CCP and President of China. The Xi Gang is composed of CCP officials and leaders with personal, professional, or educational connections to Xi and are fully loyal to Xi. The Xi Gang favors more aggressive Chinese foreign and security policies: this looks like the CCP’s crackdown on the autonomy of Hong Kong, the restrictions imposed on private-sector businesses in China, and the increasing levels of crackdown on dissidence within China. The Xi Gang has made the elimination of rural poverty a top priority domestically and has sought to expand China’s power globally as its chief foreign policy priority. However, Xi is also known widely as a princeling—he came from a privileged background!

#3: Focus on Maintaining Legitimacy

#3: Focus on Maintaining Legitimacy

(1) The National Security Commission represents the internal security apparatus of the CCP and is used to crack down on militant threats to the Chinese state

#3: Focus on Maintaining Legitimacy

(2) The People’s Liberation Army is China’s nationwide military and is directly controlled by the CCP; the PLA’s chief purpose is to protect China from foreign, hostile actors

(1) The National Security Commission represents the internal security apparatus of the CCP and is used to crack down on militant threats to the Chinese state

#3: Focus on Maintaining Legitimacy

(2) The People’s Liberation Army is China’s nationwide military and is directly controlled by the CCP; the PLA’s chief purpose is to protect China from foreign, hostile actors

(1) The National Security Commission represents the internal security apparatus of the CCP and is used to crack down on militant threats to the Chinese state

(3) State-owned enterprises have historically been used by the CCP to control the economic development of China and reward patrons of the CCP with bountiful leadership positions

#3: Focus on Maintaining Legitimacy

(2) The People’s Liberation Army is China’s nationwide military and is directly controlled by the CCP; the PLA’s chief purpose is to protect China from foreign, hostile actors

(4) The Publicity Department of the Central Committee is responsible for manufacturing and disseminating propaganda within China; most of this propaganda portrays China as a strong and powerful nation with a flourishing economy

(1) The National Security Commission represents the internal security apparatus of the CCP and is used to crack down on militant threats to the Chinese state

(3) State-owned enterprises have historically been used by the CCP to control the economic development of China and reward patrons of the CCP with bountiful leadership positions

#4: Patronage and Corruption

The CCP a system of patronage whereby CCP leaders in positions of power appoint their loyal protégés in various other positions below them, and as they themselves are promoted higher up in the ranks of the government, they ensure that their loyal followers are also promoted

#5: Mixed-Market Economy

yes, this is an off-topic meme

China is… really not communist… sorry Reddit commies…

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China has a mixed market economy, that features elements of both state planning and private market capitalism

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Under Xi Jinping, China has pursued a policy of hybrid capitalism that has seen private enterprises co-exist alongside state-owned firms (although more recently, Xi has cracked down on the private sector, fearing what it might do to the CCP’s grasp on power!)

A few important characteristics of the Chinese Communist Party UNDER XI JINPING…

#1: Anti-Corruption Crackdowns

Zhou Yongkang

#2: CCP Factional Eradication

#3: Private-Sector Curtailments

#3: Private-Sector Curtailments

BELT

AND

ROAD

What is the Belt and Road Initiative?

What is the Belt and Road Initiative?

Why is the BRI good?

Why is the BRI good?

Why is the BRI bad?

Why is the BRI bad?

BUT…

it’s worth remembering the BRI is as political as it is economic

More will be in the notes!

Authoritarianism

But geopolitically, China has also sought to crack down!

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Perhaps most importantly, what all of this shows is that the CCP is not entirely driven by a realpolitik approach to governance: rather, it cares enormously about notions of Chinese nationalism and the pride of the Han Chinese people!

Ukraine

04

Russia

and how we got here

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

• Following the Russian Revolution and the Bolshevik Red Army’s victory in the bloody Russian Civil War, Vladimir Lenin rose to power within the newly-formed Soviet Union; following Lenin’s death in 1924, Joseph Stalin became General Secretary, and thus the de facto dictator of the Soviet Union. While Lenin’s “New Economic Policy” had seen the partial emergence of free-market economic principles, Stalin pursued heavy industrialization and collectivization—and while his efforts succeeded in developing the USSR’s economy, they came at a heavy humanitarian price
• Under the subsequent Premiers of the Soviet Union, the Soviets would compete globally with the US for the status of global hegemon in the Cold War. But by the late 1980s, the USSR was facing substantial internal divisionary pressures and secessionist movements, and by 1991, the Soviet Union had dissolved into a number of individual breakaway republics and independent countries
• The newly-formed Russian state was led by the widely-unpopular Boris Yeltsin; he established cozy relations with the West and did little to stop Russia’s economy from falling into recession. During the early years of Russia’s new democracy, the thousands of companies formerly run by the state during the era of the Soviet Union were sold off into private hands; most of these companies ended up being owned by a small number of “New Russians” who profited enormously off of the instability. Many of these men became known as the “oligarchs,” and they continue to wield massive economic and political influence in Russia to this day!

Beslan school siege

Beslan school siege

Moscow theater siege

But most importantly, Putin consolidated power by establishing a quid pro quo with Russian oligarchs. So long as they supported him, he would not come after them…

… but when they did, Putin didn’t hesitate to lash out and imprison (or even assassinate) those oligarchs!

International Organizations

05

Quick Note

ASEAN and the EU will be covered in written notes!

why does no one work for the UN?

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because anyone who works for the United Nations is

UNemployed

The UN has faced significant criticism over its non-intervention during major crises—especially when those crises involve powerful UN member states!

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However, the UN is probably most effective when it comes to monitoring, investigating, and reporting on global abuses, even if it’s quite ineffective at responding to them!

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The UN also plays a crucial humanitarian role, such as providing refugee shelter in countries near Myanmar, Israel, and Syria!

CAN I GET AN “N”

CAN I GET AN “A”

CAN I GET A “T”

CAN I GET A “O”

Article 5

POP QUIZ

Why was Sweden let into NATO?

Why was Sweden let into NATO?

POP QUIZ

The eastward expansion of NATO poses a security threat to Russia

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(AKA, Putin not happy!)

WARNING: this is outdated, Macedonia joined in 2020!

CSTO and NATO are like the two adults who refused to sit with each other at lunch in middle school and yet for some reason they’re still not vibing with each other

bruh why the pretentious logo??

also don’t forget about the IMF’s little brother, the World Bank!

MAIN CRITIQUE

NEOLIBERAL AUSTERITY

&

STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT

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CPTPP

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KAHOOOOT