Daily Market Journal

Date:

08.06.2024 Saturday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Seeing the data I wouldn't really be convinced that people got shaken out. Positions keep relentlessly adding, and price isnt really respecting it.”
• We saw finally a “bigger” selloff trying to shake out some people.

• “Liquidation cascade: Red path: We sell off from here and liquidate some people. We might fall back all the way to 70-67K.”
• We saw the red path play out. Right after yesterdays analysis, I thought it would take some more time maybe.

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• “It’s basically imo either the bulls time running out (we should see a strong move to the upside soon), or we have to go back and re-accumulate before higher and allow more time for spot to accumulate. “
• This will be true imo. Either bulls take control quick, or we will see a bigger selloff and re-accumulation phase.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price rolled over yesterday evening and sold off
• Price imulsed through 70K, and fell to the 2021 ATH Pivot
• Price perfectly held the 2021 ATH Pivot, with no clear H1 closes below it
• Price since then switched to low volatility mode
• Price is now coming into the red H1 bands
• Price will either hold the bands as resistance, or will attempt to flip them and compress into them to build for a squeeze

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =69516)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• 72144.0 (yesterdays highs)
• DOWN:
• 66311.1 (ETH ETF flash algo wick low)
• 66700.5 (test into 67K Pivot, big liquidity area)

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• HTF Opens
• 67805.9 (Weekly Open) currently above it = green weekly candle, bulls in control
• 67577.9 (Monthly Open) we are currently above
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB Daily)

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• Key POC levels
• 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) (my HTF bull-bear line currently)
• 67200 (Pivot level)
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR) held price up perfectly, support currently
• 70K (round number Pivot) impulsed through it lower and lost it
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot) tried to go above multiple times and rejected, currently below

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew the Volume Profile from the ATH to the bottom at 56500

We can also see here, that 69-70K is a very key level, that is the upper end of the value area of the Volume Profile

Above 69300 we can see that there has been some volume distributed between 69K - 71386 (which is a key ATH pivot and the highest monthly close too)

So for me its very easy:

• below 70K, probably bit more consolidation needed, chop
• ​
• Above 71386 we can easily move quickly to ATH and beyond. If we clear that level we cleared the last major resistance before ATH.

Currently price respected and held the value are as support. Until price can stay here above the value area we can consider it as bullish. Once it falls back its back in the choppy ranging PA.

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Price sold off 4%, but OI hasnt really budged
• Compared to the same price levels before OI is up 6% (1.2B positions)
• CVDs in harmony with price
• 25 mil liquidations on the long side
• Funding at neutral
• Perp premium hasnt even budged on the selloff

Seeing all the data I think we would need further downside if the bulls dont take control really fast. Lot of positions buildup, clearly Futures dominating, and it seems like people are holding onto their positions as some data hasnt changed as price went down 4%

• Liquidation heatmap:
• On the liquidation heatmap we can see quite a big area of shorts liquidity at yesterdays highs
• Some people could have gotten short after the dump, they might get squeezed first

BTC possible paths

1. Compress and squeeze: Green path: We compress into the H1 red bands, and we break out from that compression and fill in most of yesterdays inefficiency. If the squeeze is futures dominated (CVD) = small red flag, if it is spot = some demand and frontrunning of next week maybe (smart money hoovering up some cheap BTC before some news event of sth)

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• Low volatility: Orange path: We have a low volatility sunday, we test maybe the lows or the highs but we stay here around the 2021 ATH Pivot level for tomorrow.

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• Trend down continuation: Red path: We continue this particular trend with breaking to the downside and making people forcibly close their excess positions. 67K might be a level to which we could easily get once we lose the 2021 ATH Pivot.

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• ALTs weak today against BTC
• They got rekt yesterday on the dump more, and also today they are much weaker
• This is good from one perspective where BTC is stronger yes
• But it kinda shows that there is no demand holding the market: BTC weak + ALTs weaker isnt necessarily a good sign
• BTC D pushing towards the highs and outside the box

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways, slightly down.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 36.63B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 16.54B

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All OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

45.15%

Todays changes:

• A decrease of 1.94B of total OI

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• 370mil minus from CME
• 440mil minus from Binance
• 200mil from Bybit
• 400mil from Bitget
• 300mil from OKX

Todays changes:

• A decrease of 240mil of total OI

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• 270mil minus from Binance
• Bitget added 250mil of OI

Stocks, Macro

• Weekend, markets closed.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• ONDO’s momentum driven trend might be over.
• We saw 3 clean pushes on the daily chart, which could generally lead to some exhaustion and some sideways action to follow.
• I think ONDO needs a couple of weeks of chop around these levels (really above the breakout level), to prepare for a move higher
• I own quite a bag of spot ONDO, I took around 40% of the position off including the profits.
• The rest I’m not touching yet and will take off once the daily bands flip red, or we see a trend shift (MSB) on the daily chart
• I believe ONDO still has some more room to go, but it might need a bit more time to build a base above 1$

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• Market seems to me a bit ignorant
• There are clear divergences in the data (positioning, perp premium staying on a consistent level, funding still “high (above or around neutral)”.
• People to me seem like they are hoping for this just to be a bullish shakeout and hope for price to go higher
• A lot of people (we also saw from the ETF flows) have bought above 70K. They got now brutally underwater in the matter of just a couple days.
• And really people since the ETH ETF got approved; there was no catalyst to short, and longs havent really been punished (we went basically sideways and up since then
• So there is (as also OI shows) a huge buildup of positions, who are hoping for BTC being bullish and going higher
• BTC going back to - even - 65K would make a lot of people rekt.

Further notes about the market - if any

Everything covered on the previous slide.