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TAG Modelling Guidance Updates��Activity and Agent-based modelling

OFFICIAL

8th December 2022

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Modelling guidance update

TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

TASM is undertaking a review of the TAG modelling units, aiming to:

    • Review modelling guidance and address shortcomings in existing guidance
    • Identify areas for updates and improvements to ensure best practice in modelling methods
    • Deliver clear and up-to-date guidance on transport modelling

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Modelling guidance on activity and agent-based modelling

TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

Aim:

  • Provide an introduction and outline the relevancy and application of these methods in transport planning
  • Describe the principles and value of this type of modelling approach

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Arup, AECOM and Systra, supported by ITS Leeds and UCL, commenced the project to support DfT in reviewing and updating modelling guidance in TAG

Activity and agent-based modelling team:

    • Siamak Khorgami
    • Gerard Casey
    • Peter Jones

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DfT’s ABM Workshop – 16 November 2022

Activity and agent-based modelling workshop: input to future guidance

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There were 200 attendees at the peak, with around 100 people left when we closed the workshop.

They were from consultancy (42%), government and transport bodies (29%), academia (9%), software providers (5%), and others (15%).

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Purpose of the Workshop

TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

  1. We discussed and collated views about the case for:
    • Activity-based demand modelling concept and methods
    • Agent-based methods
  2. Through a group exercise we collated inputs for:
    • Major operational models and case studies
    • Challenges and merits of different model types and methods
    • Model development and transferability considerations

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Key Observations in the Workshop

TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

  1. There is an interest amongst practitioners and local authorities to explore these areas further whilst there are not many case studies in the UK.
  2. It seems that there has been an ambiguity about the definition of these models. A more clear definition of these models were provided in this workshop and attendees welcomed this.
  3. Limited contribution were made towards discussing ‘Challenges and Merits of Different Model Types and Methods’ and relevancy of these models.
  4. Limited feedback were provided in relation to the model transferability.

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Feedback about Model Transferability Considerations

TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

Model Transferability Consideration 

Questions 

Feedback 

Modelling framework 

Is the modelling framework used elsewhere appropriate in the context of the UK? 

 

Hierarchy of the sub-models 

How the model hierarchy should be verified in the context of UK? 

 

Transparency of the model framework 

Which components of the model require careful review of assumptions and further sensitivity tests? 

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Estimating the component models 

What component of activity-based models should be prioritised for local/regional parameter estimation? In particular where we borrow models from other countries. 

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Cost and schedule 

How transferring Activity-based models from other regions could affect the cost and schedule of model development programme? 

 

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Post-workshop Activities

  • The workshop slides have been shared with attendees.
  • The Miro board was used to record comments and feedback during the workshop and it was available for further feedback until after the workshop (closed on Friday 2nd December).
  • We have also received feedback via our TASM mailbox (TASM@dft.gov.uk).
  • We are still keen to receive case studies.
  • The project team are currently drafting a note consolidating the workshop material. This will be shared with the attendees in January 2023.

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TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

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Next Steps

Following the workshop, the project team will:

  • Collate and distribute the workshop outputs
  • Produce a consolidated workshop note [January 2023]
  • Produce a technical note that discusses the case for activity-based demand models and agent-based methods [January- February 2023]
  • Add initial advice on the use of activity-based models and agent-based methods in TAG, either by expanding the current units (e.g. units M1.1) and/or creating a new TAG unit dedicated to this topic [February-March 2023]

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TAG Modelling Guidance Updates

For questions or additional feedback, please email:

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Note: the initial advice on TAG will likely be about an introduction to activity-based models and agent-based methods and the potential application of these methods in transport planning. At this stage, it will not be about a step-by-step process on how to develop them.

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Any Comments or Questions?