1 of 24

1

1

Max Pyziur�October 23, 2025

Washington DC

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

CUSUR

Ukraine’s Quest for Mature Nation Statehood

Roundtable XXVI

Contemplating Post-War Recovery

Resources - Energy

2 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

About the

Energy Policy Research Foundation

  • Est. 1944
  • Washington, D.C.
  • Analysis of natural gas, transportation fuel, transition pathways, electrification, issues
  • Partnerships with domestic and international think tanks (especially IEEJ)
  • Non-partisan and not-for-profit.
  • www.eprinc.org

3 of 24

U.S. Energy Dominance� – Progress?

​

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

4 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

On July 28, 2025, the Trump administration concluded a nonbinding framework agreement for the EU to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy over the course of three years ($250 billion per year).

 

Shortly afterwords, Axios reported that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen added, “We still have too much Russian LNG that is coming through the back door ... to our European Union,” concluding, “... We want to absolutely get rid of Russian fossil fuels, and therefore it is much welcome to purchase the more affordable and better LNG from the United States.”

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports …

…but is this too little too late???

5 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports – Crude Oil

6 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports – Petroleum Products

7 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports – Natural Gas

8 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports – Natural Gas

9 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

European Imports of U.S. Energy and

Displacing Russian Exports: Putting It All Together

10 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Petroleum?

​

11 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Ukraine’s Impairment of Russian Crude

and Products Production & Exports

12 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

13 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Kpler’s Conclusions on Ukraine’s Attacks

on Russian Energy Infrastructure

  • A swift return of Russian refining capacity any time soon remains unlikely.

​

  • Transportation fuel shortages in Russia’s domestic market are here to stay, increasing the probability of product export curbs.

​

  • Brazil and Turkey are looking to diversify their product imports away from Russian sourced.

​

​

14 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

15 of 24

Despite low prices and Dallas Fed survey claims, U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, albeit flattening a bit in recent months.

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

16 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

OPEC+ Recent Policy Shifts

Despite a weak market, OPEC+ is in the process of restoring 2.2 MB/d of cuts

​

  • December 2023: OPEC+ announces 2.2 MB/d of cuts; through several extensions are kept in place until April 2025.

​

  • Ahead of summer 2025: OPEC+ declared output hikes of 411 kbd for July and June, 555 KB/d for August, 547 KB/d for September.

​

  • August 8, 2025: OPEC+ agrees to unwind the last of the cuts.

​

17 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Whither U.S. Crude Oil Inventories?

… no inventory builds this year …

18 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Where Is Crude Going? – China, for now

19 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

20 of 24

Natural Gas?

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

21 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

22 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

23 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org

Thank you.��Questions?

​

24 of 24

© Copyright 2025 Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. 25 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 ▪ 202.944.3339 ▪ eprinc.org